Bernie: 2024 World Series, Bring On The Stars. Who Will Win, the Yankees Or Dodgers?

THE WORLD SERIES 

If you believe that humongous payrolls win championships, then the 2024 World Series will not give us an October Surprise. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have every financial advantage that exists, and they collect superstar players at extravagant price points. There are no underdogs here. There are overlords.

I’d say this series will be a coin flip … it should be that close. But given the massive bankrolls, oceans of revenue and soaring franchise value of both teams, the coin flip would have to be done with a 1933
Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle, which sold for $18.8 million in a 2021 auction. So, I say we forget about the coin-flip metaphor. No figures are available for 2024, but in 2023, the Yankees were reported to have revenue of $679 million – with the Dodgers in the same gated community at $580 million.

I plan on watching the first World Series conflict between these coastal empires since 1981. And I will watch with considerable enthusiasm.

I like seeing traditional, old-line, heritage-certified franchises play in the big one. Not every year — but at least every so often. The Yankees were the best team in the American League. The Dodgers were the top team in the National League. We don’t see the two best teams in the 30-franchise industry collide in October too often, so this is a treat. This is no reason to guzzle haterade. Especially if you believe that Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. should commit to a much larger payroll. What fan doesn’t want to see their team rolling through poorer opponents on the strength of big-payroll muscle?

And this is supposed to be entertainment. If a Diamondbacks-Rangers series gets you aroused, well, good for ya. As a neutral observer, I prefer watching the stars. And in this showdown, the star power is too luminous to ignore.

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. The appeal transcends the borders. The appeal is global. Ohtani’s popularity in Japan is so dominant, that the starting times for these games – right around the breakfast hour in Japan – will all but shut down the nation as millions and millions stay home from work to take in the show.

I keep hearing that “nobody cares” outside of New York or LA, but that opinion is based on resentment and envy. These are not your typical lovable teams. They are enormously wealthy, yes, but money doesn’t buy championships. Money gives you a better chance to compete for championships. And there is a difference.

The Cardinals are among the precious-few franchises, but I don’t recall hearing Redbird fans complaining about their favorite team being an onstage presence in 12 postseasons over 16 years from 2000 through 2015. We miss that, yes?

OK, who will win?

Well, it depends.

Here are some random thoughts:

1. Bullpens have been incredibly important in this postseason. The Yankees have more reliable starting pitchers than the Dodgers, so the Yanks (in theory) won’t have to depend on their relievers as much. Again that’s the theory. Basically the Yankees go into this with four capable starters and a 3.89 starting-pitcher ERA this postseason. The Dodgers have only three starters, and the third (Walker Buehler) is wobbly. The LA starters have a 6.08 ERA in the playoffs – lasting only 3.6 innings per start – and have only 27 strikeouts in 40 innings. That means more work for the Dodger bullpen. Their relievers have pitched 57 postseason innings so far, with the Yankee bullpen guys working a relatively light 38 and ⅔ innings.

Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts will have to construct at least two “bullpen” games and maybe a third. That’s tough. And the Dodgers won’t have their best high-leverage reliever, Evan Phiilips, who was left off the World Series roster because of an arm injury. That’s a potentially significant loss.

2. I don’t know if any pitching staff can control these offenses. The Yankees and Dodgers ranked among the top four MLB offenses during the regular season in several key categories: runs per game, onbase percentage, walk rate, slugging, home runs, and OPS. Both lineups wear down pitchers by taking patient at-bats – refusing to chase most out-of-zone pitches to wait for a strike. That approach is tiring for the dude on the mound. The plate discipline is a large factor, because at some point the pitcher has to throw strikes to avoid issuing another walk. And here’s why that is so important: during the regular season the Dodgers led the majors with 175 home runs and a .628 slugging percentage against heart-of-the zone strikes. The Yankees were second with 173 homers and a .600 slug on heart-of-the zone offerings.

3. The condition of Freddie Freeman’s sprained ankle is an important factor. The Dodger first basemen has been limping, and missed two NLCS games, but will return to the lineup for Game 1. Buytr Freeman has a .219 average in 32 at-bats with no extra-base hits. In normal circumstances, the Dodgers have a deeper lineup than the Yankees … but with Freeman less than 100 percent I don’t know if that applies in the World Series.

4. The Dodgers have to neutralize New York’s bombers. In wiping out Cleveland in the ALCS, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combined for nine of the team’s 10 home runs and 19 of the 29 RBIs. Maybe the long layoff cooled the bats down. We’ll see. But the Yankees have gotten superb postseason hitting from Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe and it isn’t much fun to go against that lineup.

5. Three former Cardinals will have a say in this series. Tommy Edman and Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers, and Luke Weaver for the Yankees. The Yanks plan to start lefty Carlos Rodon in two games, and he could appear in a third depending on how the series is proceeding. The Yankees also have a good lefty reliever in Tim Hill, and he’ll be a prominent part of the late-inning matchups. The switch-hitting Edman has destroyed left-handed pitching since joining the Dodgers and his ability to do so again looms large. In fact, the Dodgers as a team were the top-hitting offense vs. lefties in 2024. Flaherty has made three postseason starts; two were simply awful and one was great. He’ll start Game 1, and for one early sign, check on his velocity. Weaver has done an outstanding job as New York’s closer since taking over the role late in the season. But teams have had a good chance to study him, and Cleveland got to Weaver in the ALCS. In his final three appearances vs. the Guardians in the series, Weaver was socked for five hits, two homers, a .294 average, a .706 slug and a 6.23 ERA. Is Weaver more vulnerable? Maybe.

6. A stat that could really matter: New York relievers love to throw changeups … lots of changeups … especially Tommy Kahnle and Weaver. Well, the Dodgers were second in MLB in slugging and third in batting average against changeups this season. No team hit more home runs (25) than Los Angeles on changeups during the 2024 regular season.

7. The little things could be big things, and that’s especially true in close games in the late innings. The Dodgers were one of the best baserunning teams in the majors this year, ranking fourth according to the FanGraphs metric. And via the FanGraphs metric, the Yankees were the worst team in the majors at running the bases in 2024. If we use defensive runs saved as a measure, the Dodgers were ranked 3rd overall this season, with the Yankees rated a respectable 12th. But the Yankees have better defensive range than the Dodgers.

And keep an eye on this one … as I mentioned earlier, both of these offenses like to take pitches and draw walks. And pitch-framing artistry by the catchers could give one side an advantage in the battle for the strike zone. The Yankees’ Austin Wells was an excellent +12 in framing runs this season, and New York’s No. 2 catcher Jose Trevino was a +10. On the other side, Dodger catcher Will Smith had the worst framing numbers among regular MLB catchers. Given the exceptional plate discipline displayed by both sets of hitters, the Yankee catchers could finesse extra strikes for their pitchers … and Will Smith could cost his pitchers strikes with poor framing.

PICKING A WINNER

Why the Yankees: based on the postseason trends, the Yankees seemingly have a stronger bullpen that probably won’t be as stressed by innings overload. Could that determine the outcome? Absolutely.

Why the Dodgers: They have a lengthier lineup, even if Freeman isn’t himself. Los Angeles is averaging a postseason-best 6.4 runs per game, with five different batters whipping up an OPS of .800 or higher: Betts, Muncy, Ohtani, Kiké Hernández and Edman. The Dodgers lead the postseason field with 20 homers, and have a higher OBP and slugging percentage than the Yankees.

It’s a tough call … but I didn’t like what I saw from the NY bullpen late in the ALCS, with Cleveland making some unexpected breakthroughs. If Aaron Judge gets in the zone, I won’t have as much confidence in this pick … but I’ll go with the Dodgers in seven games.

Thanks for reading …

Have a nice weekend …

–Bernie