Bernie: A Week To Go Before The MLB Trade Deadline. It’s A Crazy, Anxious Time For NL Contenders/Pretenders.

One week to go on the trading-deadline clock, and I’m counting down and looking around the National League. Here come the sharp traders, playing the angles, looking for the fools to exploit. And those fools will find fool’s gold. Here come the nervous front offices that fear risk, and they’re terrified of the big sharks circling for easy prey. Teams will be made. Teams will be broken. And the spring-time dreams will relocate to the reality-based conditions of the here and the now.

In 2024 the National League is a place of hopeless mediocrity … but a bunch of teams can still hope for a place in October. The competition is absurd but exciting. It’s a lollapalooza out there. Contradictions and mixed feelings abound. Even the cliches are scrambled; it ain’t easy to separate buyers from sellers or the contenders from the pretenders. They’re not really all the same, but it sure as hell seems that way.

Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Los Angeles sit atop the three National League divisions. Through Monday, the three wild-card spots were in the hands of the (1) Braves, (2) Cardinals, and (3) Mets.

After that we see the Pirates and Padres only a ½ game away from what would be the final postseason entryway, with the Diamondbacks parked at just one game out. Next is a cluster of five teams – Cubs, Giants, Reds, Nationals – that are within 4 and ½ games of getting into the tournament.

The current math puts 13 of the 15 NL teams in the chase. (Sorry, Marlins and Rockies.) Some have much better odds than others.

With that in mind, here’s a capsule look at the 13 teams potential champs-or-chumps. I’ll list them order of the postseason probabilities as deemed by the esteemed Clay Davenport …

PHILLIES: Playoff Odds, 99.9%

What They Need: Bullpen help for sure. And a right-handed bat for the outfield to form a platoon with Brandon Marsh. But the mighty Phillies are 27th in the majors for offensive production from the center-field spot, so perhaps the aggressive Dave Dombrowski will make a run at White Sox CF Luis Robert.

DODGERS: Playoff Odds, 99.6%

What They Need: the franchise with an enormous treasury of revenue has been walloped hard by injuries to the starting rotation. So we can expect the Dodgers to pursue trade targets such as Jack Flaherty, Garrett Crotchett, Nathan Eovaldi, Erick Fedde and anyone else you’d like to include in the starting-pitcher speculation. The LA outfield is 19th in the majors in OPS and I’d expect the Dodgers to firm that up.

BRAVES: Playoff Odds, 90.7%

What They Need: with so many injuries, the Braves are unlikely to chase down the Phillies for first place in the NL East. This team should be a lot healthier later in the season and may be content to take what they have into the postseason. That said, it’s hard to imagine the shrewd and opportunistic Atlanta front office sitting this one out. They’ll jump at a couple of things to reinforce the rotation and secure their outfield depth.

BREWERS: Playoff Odds, 90.1%

What They Need: Even after making a low-risk trade for Aaron Civale, the Milwaukee is heading to the starting-pitcher aisle to look for an arm (or two) that can lessen the stress on a patched-up, stitched-together rotation. The Brewers’ starters collectively rank 30th (last) in innings, 27th in quality starts, 25th in WAR and 19th in ERA. Believe it or not, 16 different pitchers have started games for the Crew this season. Some of those were first-inning “openers” by relievers. But that doesn’t change the assessment: the team’s starting pitching is vulnerable.

DIAMONDBACKS: Playoff Odds, 42.3%

What They Need: Left-handed relief. It’s a serious problem. Arizona’s lefty relievers have a 6.25 ERA overall (29th) this season and are 30th with a 7.15 ERA in the final three-plus innings of a game. The entire bullpen ranks 23rd in save percentage. The Snakes have lost six games when leading through seven innings and four games when taking a lead into the ninth inning. The front office would like to upgrade the third base position and dump Eugenio Suarez if possible.

METS: Playoff Odds, 41.3%

What They Need: The bullpen is shaky, and team president of baseball operations David Stearns had an excellent record of finding low-cost, effective relievers in trade-deadline deals while running Milwaukee’s operation. The rotation will be a point of emphasis, and ownership won’t have a problem with taking on salary. The Metropolitans wouldn’t trade walk-year first baseman Pete Alonso, right?

CARDINALS: Playoff Odds, 39.9 percent

What They Need: Just one dude’s opinion, and you can line these up in any order of your choosing: (1) a right-handed bat; (2) definitely a high-leverage reliever; (3) starting-pitching depth. I’d be surprised if John Mozeliak goes big here, but the last time the Cardinals were aggressive at the deadline, they made a three-team deal in 2011 to upgrade the bullpen and stabilize the rotation and proceeded to win the World Series. About the desire for a right-handed bat: the Cardinals are 29th in the majors this season in offensive performance against left-handed pitching. Their slash line in matchups vs. lefties is .224/.286/.337 … the declines of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt created an unexpected void that has lowered this team’s offensive ceiling in 2024. And the Cardinals are trying to capture a postseason spot with one of the weakest benches in the majors.

PADRES: Playoff Odds, 39.8%

What They Need: sedatives for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. I’m only kidding, but the hyperactive Preller will be itching and twitching to do whatever he can to acquire one of the best available starting pitchers on the market. Multiple media reports have Preller obsessing over Garrett Crochet, the big prize that’s being dangled by the White Sox for a massive trade price.

CUBS: Playoff Odds, 19.1%

What They Need: Offense and relief help. But president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer has Chicago media and team fans freaking out by signaling the club plans to sit tight … and, if anything, will look to sell off assets for a generous return. The Cubs haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2018. They spent $40 million to lure manager Craig Counsell from Milwaukee. They have very good starting pitching that has them only 3 and ½ games out of the third wild card. And Cardinal fans question Bill DeWitt Jr.’s commitment to winning?

PIRATES: Playoff Odds, 17.8%

What They Need: The Pirates need an infusion of offense. And they need an abundance of rental options to choose from. The Pirates won’t make a splash trade; GM Ben Cherington will peruse the lengthy list of pending free agents that teams are willing to move for a reasonable cost. Expect the Pirates to be busy in the coming days. One dude’s opinion: because of their excellent starting pitching, the Bucs have the best chance of any team in the NL Central to steal first place from Milwaukee.

GIANTS: Playoff Odds, 11.4%

What They Need: Don’t ask, because they probably won’t go for it. As The Athletic notes: “A year ago at the deadline, the Giants were 58-49 and leading the NL wild card standings and their only acquisition was broken-down outfielder A.J. Pollock.” This team has been over .500 for only four days all season, gave up two second-round draft choices last offseason to sign free-agent starting pitcher Blake Snell and free-agent third baseman Matt Chapman. The 40-man payroll is the sixth-highest in the majors. This ain’t their time.

REDS: Playoff Odds, 6.8%

What They Need: You mean, other than a new manager? The Reds are loaded with a treasure trove of young talent and are only a bold move or two from having a chance to get into the playoffs and be a dangerous challenger. But passive ownership and an overly cautious front office will likely settle for a cosmetic move or two … nothing grand. If the Reds make noise it will happen by selling off starting pitcher Frankie Montas (a pending free agent) and a couple of relievers.

NATIONALS: Playoff Odds, 1.15%

What They Need: One more offseason to finalize the rebuild – or get close to it – and give themselves a more realistic opportunity to return to the playoffs in 2025. For now, it makes sense to strengthen the rebuild by shipping movable pieces for a positive return. Cagey GM Mike Rizzo did that 10 days ago by trading a good reliever, Hunter Harvey, to the Royals for the 39th overall draft pick and third-base prospect Cayden Wallace. More of that is coming.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.