Bernie: Albert Pujols Is Coming Home To Rejoin The Family. It’s A Great Day. But Will It Stay That Way?

I was there at Coors Field when rookie Albert Pujols, age 21, made his MLB debut for the Cardinals, batting sixth in the lineup. The Rockies slammed the Cardinals 8-0 that day, but Pujols singled in the top of the 7th for his first big-league hit. That was a cool thing to see … and that was 3,300 hits ago. Obviously the hits kept coming.

That first major-league game for Pujols came 7,666 days ago. Twenty years, 11 months and 27 days have gone by since Pujols stood in the visiting team’s dugout and watched Stan Musial toss the ceremonial first pitch in Denver. Pardon me for repeating this, but it’s one of my favorite personal stories. But Musial appeared at Coors Field, unannounced, because he was in town for an autograph show and decided to go see the Cards and Rockies. The Man stood at a box-office window, introduced himself, and said he’d like to see the ballgame. A Rockies employee recognized Stan, and he was invited to throw out the first pitch. He accepted. Of course he did.

It gives me chills thinking about it: here was Stan, mysteriously showing up in Denver for Pujols’ first game in the show. And in accordance with classic baseball mythology that runs in the soul of the sport, I believe that Musial was there to pass the torch to the young Pujols. They became close friends, and Pujols joined Musial as a franchise icon and one of the greatest all-time Cardinals. It all began on that historic day in Denver.

Hours before Stan died at age 92 on Jan. 19, 2013, he received a three-word text from Albert: “I love you.”

Musial’s presence in Denver for the start of Pujols’ career was meant to be. And now – so many years and achievements and memories later – Pujols is coming home. And I believe in my heart that this was meant to be. I’m allowed to be sappy from time to time.

Albert will report to camp in Jupiter, and then he’ll be St. Louis bound, ready to go for the Cards’ April 7 season-opener at Busch Stadium. This will be his first game as a Cardinal since Game 7 of the 2011 World Series – a triumphant 6-2 victory followed by a downtown parade on a baseball-dream weekend.

And then the reality and the reminder slapped us awake: Baseball is a business. Pujols departed as a free agent, signing a 10-year, $240 million contract to get lost in Anaheim. As the aging curve slowed Pujols it wasn’t much fun in Anaheim, even as he moved up on the all-time charts for hits, homers, doubles, RBIs, etc.

A 2021 stint with the Dodgers replenished him with happiness, and that old familiar and special feeling of competing for something important. Two road series in St. Louis – one with the Angels, one with the Dodgers – made Pujols long to come home to the special place and scene of the best years of his life and career.

Pujols felt the love on both occasions, and the many standing ovations he received at Busch were really a message and a plea from the fans: too many years have passed, all is forgiven, and we treasure you. This is where you belong.

As you know, Pujols and the Cardinals have agreed to a one-year reunion for a salary of $2.5 million.

There are four parts to this interesting move.

1) If the Hallmark channel did a baseball movie, this would be it. Pujols and the Cardinals are one again. He will dress in the Birds on the Bat, renew his professional and personal relationships with Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, and set off on a sentimental journey that will leave just about everyone crying by the power of it all. His teammates are already going crazy with excitement, waiting for Pujols to join them in Florida.

2) Pujols undoubtedly will be a boost to business, with his return stirring up a fan base that was weakened by the pandemic, angered by the lockout, and frustrated with the team’s overly cautious roster construction that’s calibrated for 85 to 90 wins. Adding Pujols to the cast of the warm and fuzzy Molina-Wainwright buddy movie is a tremendous marketing opportunity. The tickets and the merch will be in greater demand. But there’s more to this than that. Read on, please.

3) We must talk about this: the team’s youth movement was placed on hold to make room for Pujols. Or it could be that the front office overestimated the readiness of hitters they’ve hyped. (Nothing new, there.) The front office has been selling the idea of setting up a DH platoon from within, mostly consisting of youngsters Juan Yepez, Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar. But none have made a power move this spring; through Sunday the three combined to go 8 for 47 (.170) with 15 strikeouts.

OK, so Plan B was set in motion with a one-year contract for LH-swinging Corey Dickerson, and Pujols was recruited to fill the RH-hitting component.

In recent months I’ve written that it wouldn’t make much sense for the Cardinals to sign Pujols. Two reasons: the team was clearly cultivating young hitters to do much of the work at DH, and the Cardinals sure came off as firm in their commitment.

As it turned out … no, they weren’t firm at all. So much for that. It’s also true that Yepez is terribly awkward at first base this spring. He just needs time, and more sessions with coach Jose Oquendo.

The second reason: the Cardinals faced RH pitching in nearly 80 percent of their plate appearances over the past three seasons, and this puts an obvious limit on the number of at-bats that RH hitters can take against lefty pitchers. So in a platoon set-up, the opportunities to swing the bat are restricted. But that doesn’t mean you just flat-out ignore the need for a RH hitter that can do a job against lefty pitchers. Compared to his predecessors, rookie manager Oli Marmol wants more options.

4) If the last two full seasons – 2019 and 2021 – are a credible indication, Pujols brings value as a hammer against left-handed pitching. The numbers are impressive … much better than many people would assume. More on that in a few seconds.

On Twitter, the Cardinal-fan critics of this signing dismissed Pujols as an old guy who can’t hit or field and is being brought in as a novelty act. Pity the poor fools who can’t take two minutes to do a little homework at FanGraphs or Baseball Reference before popping off on Twitter.

If Pujols was so done as a player — just an old dude, who stayed too long — then why did he help the 106-win Dodgers last season? If he could be a plus hitter for an LA team that’s better than the team in St. Louis, then shouldn’t he able to be a plus hitter for the Cardinals? Why did Dodger teammates love Pujols so much? You could see that just by watching the Dodger dugout when the TV cameras zoomed in during games. They were thrilled to have him. They praised him for his attitude, his willingness to reach out to them to offer assistance during slumps, and his desire to fit in.

In 2019 for the Angels, Pujols had 181 plate appearances vs. lefties and slugged .515 with a .830 OPS, and was 12 percent above league average offensively in park and league adjusted runs created. He homered every 15 at–bats against lefthanders that season.

In 2021 for the Angels and Dodgers, Pujols had 146 plate appearances vs. lefties and slugged .603 with a .939 OPS and was 46 percent above league average offensively in adjusted runs created. He hit a home run every 10.4 at-bats against lefties.

Fired up by going from Anaheim to LA to take on a role offered by a storied franchise and pennant contender, Pujols batted .303 with a .347 onbase percentage and .609 slug (.953 OPS) against LHP as a Dodger. That’s exceptional.

A quick check shows that Pujols’ OPS vs. left-handed pitching ranked 16th among 135 hitters that had at least 145 plate appearances vs. LHP in ‘21. His OPS was superior to that of many notable hitters including Nelson Cruz, Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Hanniger and Randy Arozarena.

And in 2021 Pujols’ overall slugging percentage (.603) against lefties ranked 7th among 135 hitters with at least 145 plate appearances vs. LHP. The .603 slug matched Jose Abreu and was higher than that of Aaron Judge, Nick Castellanos, Ozzie Albies, Jorge Soler and Josh Donaldson, Bryant, Reynolds and Arozarena.

If Pujols can still come through in a similar way as a DH and pinch-hitter when facing lefties, he’ll have a positive impact on the St. Louis lineup. And when Paul Goldschmidt needs a day off at first base, Pujols should be fine. According to Fielding Bible, Pujols was just a tad below average (minus 1) in defensive runs saved at first base over the past three seasons.

One obvious problem: Pujols is terrible against RH pitching. Over the past three seasons he’s hit .219 with a .640 OPS vs. right-handers. That OPS ranks 206th among 212 batters that have 600 or more plate appearances vs. RHP since the start of the 2019 season.

This is where Oli Marmol comes in.

Pujols’ success as a Cardinal in 2022 is heavily dependent on slotting most of his at-bats in matchups that play to his strengths. And this isn’t complicated … at all. If Marmol makes the obvious and easily avoidable mistake of playing Pujols too often against opposing righthanders, then this won’t work. Pujols will be a liability, and the lineup will be weakened. But if Marmol has the discipline to match Pujols against LH pitching, Pujols should be an asset offensively.

Since the start of the 2019 season is 16 percent above league average offensively against lefties – and 31% below average against righthanders. Managers have many decisions to make, but understanding when it’s best to use Pujols is about as easy as it gets.

This isn’t a risk-free move.

If Marmol strays from the platoon splits, he’ll get mediocre overall results (if that much) from Pujols. It would be sad to see the manager mishandle the situation in a way that diminishes Pujols’ value – and puts one of the all-time greats in a position to fail.

If Pujols has just lost it as a hitter at age 42 – and can’t inflict damage on lefthanded pitchers – there’s no pure-baseball reason to have him on the team. And the situation will be awkward. If the Cardinals stay with him even though he can’t hit, then this will be just another Matt Carpenter ordeal. And if the Cardinals conclude that they have to move on and make more responsible use of the Pujols’ roster spot … well, how depressing. It would be an awful way for Pujols’ second act in St. Louis to come to an end.

And what if Pujols decides he wants to get more at-bats? He needs 21 homers to reach 700 for his career. His desire to play frequently could become an issue.

I’m just presenting legitimate hypotheticals on the “risk” side of this Pujols renewal.

The fans will show in large numbers for the Albert Pujols homecoming. He’s rejoining the family, and it’s a special occasion. This 2022 season has the potential to be a wonderful experience. It’s up to Pujols and the Cardinals to make the most of it. A golden-oldies tour is sweet, but it isn’t enough. Pujols has to show that he’s still capable of delivering more of his greatest hits.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.