BERNIE BITS
Hitting some fungoes while patiently waiting for the Cardinals to sign or otherwise acquire a couple of relievers to upgrade their bullpen …
Five things jump out about the Blues since Drew Bannister took over as interim coach after the sacking of Craig Berube: (1) The Blues are 4-1 since the change; (2) At even strength Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou have combined for seven goals and 11 assists in the five games; (3) In 66 even-strength minutes the line of Thomas, Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich has outscored opponents 8-4 and has an excellent expected goals share of 63.8 percent; (4) the Blues have a +2 differential on special teams, having scored four power-play goals in 12 opportunities and killing nine of 11 penalties. On the negative side (5) the Blues are still struggling to win the battle in the high-danger zones; since the coaching change they’ve been outscored 9-6 from the HD area at even strength and 9-4 at 5 on 5. Both figures rank near the bottom of the NHL since Bannister’s first game on Dec. 14. I’ll add this: the Blues were uninspired for much of Saturday’s 7-5 win over visiting Chicago, and you can thank the Blackhawks’ inept goaltending for that. The Blues also allowed a short-handed goal in that game. But they found their energy and rallied, and a win is a win.
Sonny Gray, Part I: Baseball analyst Joe Sheehan on the Cardinals’ free-agent signing of starting pitcher Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75 million contract: “Gray has averaged 146 innings a year over the last three, (has) two seasons qualifying for the ERA title in the last five full campaigns. It’s not like he’s hung Jacob deGrom-level performance, either. I think the Cards paid for a 2023 season that is highly unlikely to happen again, a very 1980s mistake in free agency.”
Response to my friend Joe: Sheehan is correct when he expresses skepticism over Gray’s ability to repeat a 2023 season highlighted by 184 innings pitched, a 2.79 ERA that ranked third among all MLB starting pitchers, the best fielding independent ERA (2.83) among innings-qualified starting pitchers, and 5.3 WAR that was tied for third overall among starters. Gray also finished second in the American League Cy Young voting. That will be difficult to replicate. But Gray, 34, also developed a devastating sweeper pitch that drove his performance to a higher level, and I think it’s reasonable to expect the pitch to be an important part of his arsenal going forward. And since the start of the 2019 season Gray ranks 24th among MLB starters in innings, 16th in ERA (3.22), 19th in FIP (3.34) and 10th in WAR (16.3). There was some risk in this signing but the Cardinals made a reasonable gamble here. And Gray’s strikeout rate since 2019 – 26.7% – is the best among the starting pitchers lined up for STL’s 2024 rotation …
Concern over Mizzou basketball: I don’t overreact to early-season college hoops. For me, the winter begins to kick in once Illinois and Missouri play each other in the annual bragging rights game. The Illini’s 97-73 demolition of Missouri was easy and startling. MU was just bad in all areas. It was a lost-cause performance offensively, and Missouri put up little resistance on defense. The Illini invaded the two-point area to make 21 of 32 shots (65.6%) and that’s a problem for Mizzou. In his second season in CoMo coach Dennis Gates is still trying to sort out his cast of players – and that apparently requires more time. Missouri has sagged to No. 92 nationally in the Ken Pomeroy ratings, directly behind Louisiana Tech, Duquesne and McNeese State. Among SEC teams, only LSU and Vanderbilt are rated more poorly than MU at this point. And Missouri’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating is 13th in the 14-team SEC. The Missouri offense is an issue – but the loose defense is a more debilitating problem and must be tightened up …
Jayson Tatum Watch: Our Town’s four-time NBA All-Star selection continues to evolve in his seventh season with the Celtics. Boston, which has won 11 of its last 13 games, has the best record (23-6) in the NBA. Tatum’s all-around game has never been better. Part of this is Tatum’s own growth and his focus on improving facets of his game. And the Celtics have put a more versatile team around him by adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis over the offseason. The 7-1 Porzingis is a matchup nightmare for opponents because of his ability to effectively shoot over shorter opponents and his quickness in taking larger defenders to the rim. Holiday has brought championship-winning experience to Boston (from his time with Milwaukee) and gives the Celtics two options to run the point, with Derrick White taking on a more prominent role. Though the offense still runs through Tatum, he’s more of a facilitator these days. Tatum sees the floor, understands what the Celtics need at a particular stage of the game, and applies his versatile skill set accordingly. Tatum is shooting a little less and making a difference with his playmaking. “You’re starting to see what leadership looks like and what value looks like for him,” Boston coach Joe Mazzulla said after his team defeated the Lakers on Christmas Day …
Tatum, Part II: In his 28 games this season Tatum is averaging 26.9 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. His three-point shooting accuracy is down, but that doesn’t matter all that much because he’s attempting fewer shots from long distance. Tatum is splurging on drives to the basket, putting up a career-best 58 percent shooting percentage on two-point incursions. He’s also establishing career bests for overall field goal percentage (47.7%) and effective field goal percentage (54.4%) …
Tatum Part III: Because of the extra dimension of offense provided by Holiday, Porzingis and the increasingly important Derrick White, defenses can’t swarm Tatum without paying a price. And if Tatum has a cold shooting performance in a game, the Celtics aren’t as vulnerable as they used to be. As recently as last season, Boston was 14-10 when Tatum shot 40 percent or worse from the floor. This season, when Tatum shoots 40 percent or below, the Celtics are 5-1. That statistic courtesy of NBC Sports in Boston …
Cotton Bowl betting line continues to shift: The line continues to move heavily in the direction of Ohio State. A couple of weeks ago Mizzou was a 2.5 point favorite, and we can attribute that to the volume of anticipated opt-outs on the Ohio State side. But the Buckeyes – as of now – haven’t taken a heavy hit in roster subtractions. Over the weekend, Missouri was a one-point underdog in Friday’s 7 p.m. Cotton Bowl. But late Monday morning No. 9 Missouri was listed as a three-point underdog to No. 7 Ohio State. And that line has grown to 3.5 points at a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks including the Westgate. The change in the line – which now offers a better chance of covering the spread for Mizzou backers – the money is rolling in on the Tigers. At last look (noon on Wednesday), 82 percent of the bets and 71 percent of the handle were coming in on Mizzou …
Cotton Bowl prediction, Part I: I’m saving my own prediction for game day (Friday), but here’s how Bruce Feldman (The Athletic) sees the Mizzou vs. Ohio State matchup: “The Buckeyes are breaking in new QB Devin Brown. Coach Ryan Day is excited about him, Ohio State still has plenty of weapons and it should be good enough on defense to slow what has been a very explosive Tigers attack. (Coordinator) Jim Knowles’ defense should hold up well enough against Mizzou star RB Cody Schrader to avoid getting shredded. Ohio State is tied for No. 2 in the nation in fewest runs of 30-yards plus with just one. Ohio State 27, Mizzou 23.” That seems illogical but I’m still trying to make up my mind on this one …
Cotton Bowl prediction, Part II: This, from Barrett Sallee of CBS Sports and Sportsline: “Some bowl games hinge on the motivation factor, and this is one of them. This is the biggest game for the Missouri program since the 2014 SEC Championship Game, and coach Eli Drinkwitz knows it. Expect him to empty the playbook against an Ohio State team that, while talented, is disappointed that it is in the Cotton Bowl and not the College Football Playoff. Those factors, coupled with the departure of Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord, will give the Tigers the edge.” Sallee is taking Mizzou on the money line …
The downbound direction of the Kansas City Chiefs: How do you lose a game when your opponent doesn’t attempt a single pass over the final three quarters of the game? That’s crazy. But that’s exactly what went down when Las Vegas came to Arrowhead and emerged with a 20-14 victory over the home team. The Chiefs – 3-5 in their last eight games – were toppled as a 10.5 point favorite. The Raiders didn’t have to throw the ball to win. They feasted on critical mistakes made by QB Patrick Mahomes and the ailing Kansas City offense. Vegas scored two touchdowns on Mahomes’ turnovers – a fumble return for a score, and a pick-six interception. The offensive line failed to protect Mahomes who was sacked four times and pressured an astonishing 25 times in the embarrassing loss …
Mahomes and the vanishing deep pass: Mahomes averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt in the loss to the Raiders; it was his fourth-lowest rate in a game during his six seasons as the starter. According to Next Gen States, only three of Mahomes’ 27 completions traveled more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. This season, on pass attempts that travel at least 20 yards, Mahomes has completed only 16 of 60 (26.7%) with one touchdown and six interceptions. And he’s averaged only 8.6 yards per attempt on deep throws. In his first five seasons as Kansas City’s starters, Mahomes completed 45 percent of his deep throws for 61 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, averaging 15.3 yards per attempt. The decline of the Chiefs’ downfield throwing game in 2023 is extreme and stunning. And it doesn’t help to have receivers that have collectively dropped 35 passes this season, the second-highest drop total by an NFL team. (Source: Sports Info Solutions) …
KC Chiefs, Part II: Cue up “Sabotage” by the Beastie Boys. The Chiefs are a horrendous minus 10 in the turnover differential this season – tied with lowly Washington for the worst in the NFL. And penalties are having a corrosive effect on the Kansas City offense; the unit committed six more penalties against Vegas. This season the Chiefs are tied for the most offensive holding penalties (20) in the NFL. They’ve been called for 17 false starts and multiple offsides and are tied for the most offensive pass interference penalties (4.) Chiefs Offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor is the most penalized player in the NFL this season, having been charged with 17 infractions including eight false starts and six holds. Add all of these negative factors together, and the Chiefs are fortunate to be averaging 22.2 points per game. That’s 11th in the league but nothing remotely close to where they’ve been in previous seasons with Mahomes. With two regular-season games to go, the Chiefs are averaging fewer points per game than the Cleveland Browns (23.0). And the Browns have started four different quarterbacks in 2023.
Give that man an award: Barring a shocking turn of events over the final two weeks of the regular season, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be the NFL’s MVP this season and deservedly so. The Ravens’ blow-out of the 49ers in San Francisco all but eliminated Niners quarterback Brock Purdy from consideration and strengthened Jackson’s case. Since the Ravens drafted Jackson in 2018, they have a regular-season record of 57-19 when he starts, and are 8-13 when he hasn’t started.
Quick-Hit Bits: It would be nice to see Brayden Schenn get something done. During the team’s 4-1 streak the captain has no goals or assists in 67 minutes of even-strength time. And the Blues have been outscored 4-2 when he’s on the ice at even strength … I had a dream over the weekend, and no, I’m not kidding, The dream: Albert Pujols returns to the Cardinals as a coach. Not in 2024, though. And probably never. I attribute this fantasy to putting too much rum in the egg nog … Aroldis Chapman, anybody? … With nine SEC football coaches making at least $9 million per season, what does that mean for Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz? Answer: an adjusted and sweetened contract … the Cardinals are getting calls on Tommy Edman … if you’re feeling blue during this holiday season, cheer up. You could be playing for the Detroit Pistons who have lost 27 games in a row. Then again, you’d be paid a lot of money for being part of a 27-game losing streak … St. Louis U’s men’s basketball team is No. 200 nationally in the KenPom ratings — but at least the Billikens are moving up … Mizzou was No. 59 nationally when defeating Illinois in last season’s bragging rights game and had reached No. 34 by Jan. 7. This just shows how far behind the current Mizzou team is, respectively, at this stage of the season … favorite Christmas present? Glad you asked. It was a beautiful ornament made for the tree, hand-crafted in Poland (my mother land.) That was even better than a bottle of Polish vodka … I don’t know about y’all, but we savored a pot of cream of crab soup on Christmas day, with more servings on the 26th. This comes from an old recipe by my late maternal grandmother, who was raised in a small Virginia town near the Chesapeake Bay. This soup is also known as Niravana … Sorry, but I’m over the film, “Christmas Story.” It’s a case of overexposure. I like the movie but need a break … as usual, I had to wipe tears from my face when watching “Meet Me In St. Louis” and Judy Garland sings “Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas.” We view this classic film every Christmas morning and that song gets to me each time.
Thanks for reading!
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. on Friday. Stream it live or grab the show podcast on 590thefan.com or through the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.
Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb
All stats used on this column were sourced from Pro Football Reference, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, FanGraphs or Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
