BERNIE BITS
1. TRACKING THE BLUES: For the most part the St. Louis Blues have been resilient this season. They’ve displayed admirable gumption while pulling out some close wins in games that could have gone either way. The boys have made some nice comebacks, but that wouldn’t be necessary if they didn’t have so many slow starts to fall behind so often. And as time goes on, we’re seeing some alarming developments since their best player, center Robert Thomas, went down with a serious ankle injury on Oct. 22.
The Blues deserved plenty of attaboys for winning their first game with Thomas out of the lineup, going on the road to blister Toronto 5-1. Ah, but since then the Blues have dropped four of their last six games, getting outscored by 10 goals and banking only one goal in 17 power-play opportunities.
It all adds up to 7-7 on the season, but we’re witnessing some alarming developments including the knee injury to the talented young defenseman Philip Broberg. He joined Thomas for a lengthy stay on injured reserve.
– During their 2-4 skid the Blues have been outscored 18-11 at five-on-five play. Scoring goals has become increasingly difficult for this team.
– For the season, the Blues are averaging 2.64 goals per game at all strengths. It’s early, and perhaps we’ll see the offense perk up before Thomas returns … whenever that will be. But for what it’s worth, the current average of 2.64 goals per game would be tied for the ninth lowest by a Blues team in 57 seasons of hockey.
– Through their first 14 games the Blues have converted only 4 of 34 power-play setups. But it’s actually worse than that, because the team yielded two shorthanded goals while operating with the man advantage. So their power-play net result is a pitiful plus-two. The team has gone 0 for 12 in its last dozen power plays. Their overall PP success rate ranks 31st in the NHL.
– During this 2-4 downturn, defenseman Colton Parayko has pumped in four goals. That’s excellent. Of course. But here’s the problem: twenty other Blues’ skaters have played during the last six games – and those 20 players have scored four goals … combined.
– Coach Drew Bannister continues to use Pavel Buchnevich at center, and let’s be candid here: this is turning into a disaster. During the team’s 2-4 slide, the Blues have been outscored 9-2 with Buchnevich on the ice at five-on-five, and outscored 11-3 with him at even strength. In the last six games Buchnevich has two assists and has won only 11 of 55 faceoffs at even strength for a horrendous 18.5 percent success rate. For the season, Buchnevich has won only 31 percent of his draws. Please make it stop.
– Jordan Kyrou is doing the enigmatic air-head thing. His into the maddening cycle of making sweet plays, only to ruin the whole damn thing with his mystifyingly careless giveaways. Just for kicks, I looked up the definition of Coach Killer and spotted this particular explanation: “Any dumb or accidental action that causes an enormous letdown, especially if it occurs at a critical time.” Yep, that’s what Kyrou did late in Thursday’s 4-2 loss to Utah. Kyrou tied the game with 6:31 remaining, then tried to get cute and turned the puck over to set up Utah’s winning goal.
I could speak of additional miscreants but that’s enough negativity for the day.
LGB, dammit.
2. THE KC CHIEFS, MAKING SAVES: Our state’s National Football League entity is 8-0 this season and have won 14 in a row (including postseason) since Dec. 31 of last season. Coach Andy Reid’s team had many chances to lose games along the way … but are stubbornly resistant to the concept of defeat. During this 14-game winning streak, Kansas City has clawed for 11 wins by a one-score margin. That includes two overtime triumphs, four wins by three points or fewer, and five victories by a margin of five points or less.
It sort of helps to have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. In his team’s 14-0 run, Mahomes has jolted opponents with four comebacks in the fourth quarter and five game-winning drives. And this is being done with the usual injury-related chaos that wipes out receiver after receiver to limit Mahomes’ options. But as just about always (cliche incoming!) Mahomes finds a way.
Combining the regular season and postseason, the Chiefs are 97-25 (.795) in games started by Mahomes. He’s already won three Super Bowls and is pitching for No. 4. If Mahomes can keep doing what he does better than anybody, the Chiefs can become the first team of the Super Bowl Era to win three consecutive Vince Lombardi Trophies. Mahomes’ career postseason record is 15-3. His regular-season winning percentage (.788) is the best in NFL history among quarterbacks that have started at least 100 games.
The other star of the Kansas City championship-hunting safari is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. He’s had some holes to fill in the secondary, and the Chiefs have been vulnerable in some areas … but that hasn’t slowed the Spags defense. Not much, anyway. The Chiefs rank fourth in the league for fewest points yielded (18.4) per game, are sixth in fewest yards allowed (5.1) per play, and have surrendered only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks third.
3. CARDINALS CATCHING, REVISITED: I wrote extensively on this yesterday, but I wanted to follow up on the Cardinals’ decision to move Willlson Contreras from catcher to first base in 2025. He’ll also get plenty of swings as a DH. I like the move, but there is one short-term concern: Contreras has a superior arm, a solid pop time, and a positive history of throwing out base stealers.
In 2023, under the new rules that make it much easier to steal bases, Contreras took out 25 percent of the runners that tried him. That was well above the MLB average. And this past season Contreras had an above-average 23% throw-out rate. His right arm can neutralize a running game.
What about the younger Cardinal catchers? Last season Pedro Pages was just below average at 19%. Ivan Herrera — frankly — was awful, catching only 7% of thieves that sought to take advantage of him. Herrera must improve there … and it sure would help if he had the benefit of meaningful coaching. It would help if the pitchers tried to do a better job of holding runners. I want Herrera to play a lot in 2025 for two seasons: (A) his bat is very good and highly capable of generating power and a high onbase percentage, and (B) he’s shown improvement in other areas of catching.
Last season Herrera had a positive grade on framing and the best called-strike rate among STL’s three catchers last All three catchers were above average in blocking pitches — though Herrera wasn’t as successful as Pages and Contreras at blocking “tough” chances according to Statcast.
On the final scorecard for 2024, here’s how the three catchers came out in the Fielding Run Value metric at Statcast: Contreras (0) was exactly average, Herrera was minus 1, and Pages was minus 1. I’m not seeing a major difference there, but obviously Herrera will have to get better at liquidating base stealers in 2025.
4. THE CONTRERAS CONTRACT: I shall repeat … the dude is underrated. The gripes over his contract is comical. According to the FanGraphs value calculations, which have been in place for a long time, the Contreras performance was worth $22 million to the Cardinals 2023, and then $21.2 million in 2024. That’s impressive considering that he played in only 64.5 percent of the games over the last two seasons. Which is why the club deemed it best to lower his injury risk and reduce the physical punishment by switching to first base.
Based on his contract structure, the Cardinals paid Contreras a total of $28 million over his first two years, which breaks down to an average of $14 million per season. But Contreras provided an average annual performance value of $21.6 million over those two years.
On the three seasons that remain on his five-year contract, Contreras will make an average annual salary of $18.16 million. There is nothing excessive or wasteful about the team’s investment in Contreras. Since the start of 2023, only Nolan Arenado has a higher value rating than Contreras among Cardinals position players. That’s logical because Arenado played in 87 more games than the banged up Contreras over the last two seasons.
5. MIZZOU: LET’S GET PHYSICAL. As I write this, Missouri is a 2 and ½ point underdog for Saturday’s home game against Oklahoma. The Tigers surprisingly appeared in the first college football playoff ranking this week, listed at No. 24. But MU is definitely trending in the wrong direction. I don’t count the team’s win at UMass because it was a garbage game with no danger of losing. With that said, Missouri has lost two of its last three legitimate competitions. In between getting trounced by Alabama and Texas A&M on the road by a combined 75-10 score, Mizzou barely crawled by yucky Auburn with a 21-17 escape for a W.
And now battered Oklahoma comes in with a 5-4 record overall, and 1-4 in the SEC. In their last three “real” games (sorry, Maine) the Sooners were pounded in three straight losses to Texas, South Carolina and Ole Miss by an average of 23 points. The Tigers can’t lose this game. It won’t be easy to grab, because the home team’s offense does not pass the ball very well, and doesn’t run it very well. The Missouri defense is one of the least effective pass-rush units among the four Power Conference teams.
Both of these teams have terrible air games. Among the 69 power-conference offenses, OU ranks 53rd in passer rating and MU is 59th. Brady Cook is a better quarterback than backup Drew Pyne, but I don’t think that means much. Before getting injured Cook was having a mediocre (at best) season. And unless there’s some sudden transformation of Pyne’s limited skill, Mizzou will likely struggle to make connections with the ball in flight.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Missouri has the least accurate passing touch among power conference teams, ranking 69th (last) with an on-target rate of 57.9 percent. Oklahoma isn’t much better – but still brings more passing accuracy (71% on-target rate) to this renewed rivalry.
In short, Missouri will have to win by outmuscling Oklahoma. Specifically:
Mizzou’s rushing game has faded with Nate Noel hobbled. Perhaps he’ll give the Tigers a boost if he’s capable of going after it on Saturday. I won’t bore you with more numbers, but among power conference teams MU is in the bottom half of the rushing-metrics rankings that I pay attention to. And this is the problem, at least potentially. That’s because Oklahoma, for all of its other flaws, has the third-best run defense among power conference teams based on expected points per play. The Sooners have allowed the lowest rate of successful runs by a power-conference defense, and only six power teams have been better at preventing big-play runs. It could be a long night in CoMo if the Tigers offense gets jammed at the line of scrimmage. We’ll see if offensive coordinator and head coach Eli Drinkwitz came up with anything creative and/or effective during the bye week.
Oklahoma has low grades for its rushing attack (via Sports Info Solutions) and that should work in Mizzou;s favor. The Tigers aren’t exactly a run-stuffing defense, but they do OK. Mizzou can make a difference by putting heat on Oklahoma’s freshman quarterback Jackson Arnold. Two weeks ago, he completed 71 percent of his passes and tossed two touchdowns in a respectable loss at Ole Miss. The kid has talent but has gotten rattled under pressure. But can Mizzou get to him enough times? Among power conference defenses the Tigers rank 61st of 69 teams in QB pressures, 62nd in knockdowns, 55th in hurries, and 44th in sack percentage. If Mizzou’s defense can really clamp down on OU with physical authority, the home team should prevail. Say, 23-20.
Thanks for reading …
Have a wonderful weekend.
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
