The Blues begin a new adventure on Tuesday afternoon in Seattle, opening the 2024-2025 season at a faraway destination. But the goal is in clear view and easy to see: stay within close range in the postseason chase and find their way back to a spot in the Stanley Cup tournament.
MoneyPuck gives the Blues a 27 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason. The analyst Neil Paine is more bullish, listing the Blues’ postseason probability at 42 percent. But the Blues were 19th overall and 10th in the Western Conference in Paine’s season-eve power rankings. So the Blues are underdogs, which is a good place to be. After failing to qualify for the playoffs in the last two seasons, I’m cool with the Blues being overlooked and in position to emerge as a surprise.
Here’s what I like about the Blues:
1. I like seeing how the soft-rebuild project is coming along. It’s looking good. The Blues had a losing record two seasons ago but improved to an encouraging 92-point finish in 2023-2024. The warming trend progressed after Drew Bannister replaced Craig Berube behind the bench, but the Blues couldn’t get through the powerful blockade set by Western Conference contenders. The Blues were a good team last season, going 43-33-6. But the West had too many teams, and the Blues couldn’t do enough to get through. But their 92 points in the standings was 11 more than the year before.
2. I like what Doug Armstrong did with the roster. And I liked his maverick move. The GM freshened the talent supply by adding depth and speed and youth. This will not only give the Blues more quality up and down the lineup – with more in reserve – but the Blues will play faster, and that’s more in line with coach Drew Bannister’s preferred style of play.
Depending on the specific early lineups, the Blues could have as many as six new players in the lineup on a given night – and all were brought in by Armstrong. The four new forwards are Dylan Holloway, Alexander Texier, Mathew Joseph, and Radek Facksay. And there are two new defenseman in Philip Broberg and Ryan Suter.
The NHL was rocked by Armstrong’s bold summer raid on Edmonton to pull Broberg and Holloway away from the Oilers by presenting offer sheets. When Edmonton declined to match the offer, Army’s successful gamble paid off. Armstrong disturbed the NHL’s peace by adding two former first-round draft choices who are young and talented and bring plenty of upside to St. Louis.
The Blues have a larger talent pool now, and that doesn’t even account for a batch of rising prospects that are getting closer to St. Louis. The Blues already have more lineup options to choose from – and the number of assets will continue to grow.
3. I like the Blues’ chances of having a more respectable defense this season. In all candor, Torey Krug’s season-ending ankle surgery actually makes Blues stronger. I don’t think the Blues can match the teams that can deploy an elite set of top-four defensemen, but the Blues should be stronger at goal prevention. The large and swift Broberg is a terrific addition, and Justin Faulk should return to sharp form after hobbling through a miserable 2023-2024 season with chronic ankle injuries. The Blues tightened up defensively after the coaching change last season, and I look for that trend to stretch into this season.
4. I like knowing that coach Drew Bannister is settled in. Bannister had a full offseason and training camp to prepare his team, and he used his time to get to know individual players better. Bannister’s outreach to build relationships should give the Blues a stronger foundation of trust and unity.
The Blues responded favorably to Berube’s dismissal last Dec. 12. I didn’t like Berube getting sacked; it seemed like a harsh way to treat the only coach in Blues history to lead the franchise to the Stanley Cup. But the initial feelings are irrelevant now, simply because we saw the Blues improve under Bannister.
After ranking 23rd among 30 NHL teams in points percentage (.482) under Berube, the Blues were 13th in the NHL in points percentage (.602) from the time Bannister took over with his first game on Dec. 14. The power play was more successful, the team’s scoring rate went up slightly (all strengths) and the players worked harder.
The most impressive aspect of the turnaround was the Blues’ ability to limit opponent goals. With Berube as coach last season, the Blues ranked 28th in the NHL in goals-against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and were 24th in goals allowed per 60 minutes at all strengths. But with Bannister running things, the Blues began playing smarter away from the puck (among other positives) and improved to 11th in preventing goals at five-on-five, and 12th in denying goals at all strengths.
5. I like theuncharitable goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Last season the tandem was outstanding, combining for the league’s sixth best save percentage at all strengths and performing comfortably above league average in stopping shots from the high-danger zone. Binnington
Last season the Blues gave up 248 goals, which was 13th best in the NHL. But based on possession and shot metrics, the Blues should have yielded 279 goals, which would have ranked 28th. The two goaltenders kept the Blues hovering in postseason contention.
Binnington displayed his best form since his magical rookie season that ended with a Stanley Cup parade in downtown St. Louis. Last season Binnington was fifth among regular NHL goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Average and was the second best at preventing high-danger goals.
The only thing I wonder about is regression. Binnington and Hofer were so superb last season, it’s fair to wonder if the Blues can count on both of them to perform at such a high level for a second consecutive season. Will Binner deliver an encore? For the Blues to have a clear chance to make the playoffs, the goaltending must be special for the second straight season.
THERE ARE QUESTIONS
* Can newcomers Broberg and Holloway play up to their talent level? Broberg is especially exciting because of his size and speed.
* If Pavel Buchnevich remains at center, can he play at his best? We know Buchnevich is more effective on the wing, but the Blues need him to strengthen their middle. Is that the best use of his talent? I suppose that it’s worth a try. But Buchnevich at center also tells us the Blues are short at a critical position.
* Speaking of centers, can Robert Thomas produce his first 100-point season? He got to 86 last season and should have more help on his line this time around.
* Can Jordan Kyou consistently perform at a high level from the start of the season to the finish line? That’s always the question with Kyrou. He perked up after the coaching change, and made a commitment to being more dutiful at neutral ice and on the defensive end. Hopefully that’s a sign of newfound maturity.
* Does Brayden Schenn have much left in the tank? The Blues will need more scoring from him if possible. And as a two-way center, Schenn must serve more dependably in the defensive zone. And that may be his biggest problem. Last season Schenn was on the ice (even strength) for an average of 3.77 goals per 60 minutes – the worst rate by any Blues skater that had regular playing time. That 3.77 figure dumped Schenn in the bottom 25 of all regular NHL skaters.
* Defenseman Colton Parayko turned up his play last season and it was good to see. But can he reach an even higher level? I may be in the minority here, but I’m not a fan of Parayko pairing with Nick Leddy. Last season the Blues were outscored 83-65 with the pairing on the ice at all strengths. But Parayko-Leddy had a brutal expected goal share of 37.3 percent at all strengths when working as a tandem. And the expected goal share (42.8%) at five-on-five was pretty awful. Leddy is a problem.
* Will a healthy Justin Fauk re-emerge as a true-quality defenseman? He’s moving well on that repaired ankle.
* Can Jake Neighbours repeat – or exceed – his 27-goal breakout from last season?
* Can Zack Bolduc build on the late-season promise of his first NHL experience?
I’m excited for the season. The eerily confident Armstrong likes his roster. He believes this can be a playoff team. Across North America, the hockey pundits aren’t as rosy.
Here’s Greg Wyshynski of ESPN:
“I think it’s in the Blues’ best interests to have the best draft lottery odds possible at this point, but GM Doug Armstrong’s teams have a stubborn way of always competing,” he wrote. “It’s sort of in the franchise’s DNA, having had only one season with a points percentage of less than .500 since 2008-09.
“The Blues are in that purgatory of having great players in their prime — Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich — but not enough of them; a middling blue line with five players well north of 30 years old, four of them with trade protection and one of them (Torey Krug) out for the season; and a goaltender in Jordan Binnington who is good enough to keep a team from ever being as bad as the Blues should want to be at this point.
“The successful offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are an indication that Armstrong knows this team needs to get younger and, especially in the latter case, faster. But those opportunities are few and far between in the offseason. The most direct path to that end is the draft. I fear the Blues will be just good enough not to maximize their chances there.”
(Back to me … Bernie.)
The Blues should be better this time around, but still lack the overall “oomph” to crash the postseason tournament. To make the playoffs they’ll need some other Western Conference contenders to flop or underperform, and I don’t know if we can count on that. Near the end of the regular season, I think the Blues will be close … but still hanging on the outside for a third consecutive year. But whether they get to the playoffs or not, the Blues are shaping up nicely for the future.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:
https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
Stats used in my hockey columns and videos are from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, PuckIQ, and Money Puck, and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.
