Going into the 59th Super Bowl, I envisioned two scenarios in the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
If the more talented Philly team won, it would be a trouncing, a beatdown. If the Chiefs won, it would be done with their usual method: hang tough, summon another late-game comeback, and find a way to win at the end.
I had two choices to make for a prediction, and I went with the close-call Kansas City scenario. I went with the Chiefs because of their championship DNA personified by coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Wrong.
Sunday in New Orleans the Eagles wiped out the possibility of a drama-filled game, shredded Kansas City’s map to victory, and knocked the Chiefs out by halftime. Just like the on-stage sign that marked the conclusion of Kendrick Lamar’s halftime show: GAME OVER.
Philly led 24-0 at the half after breaking the Chiefs in half. Kansas City’s bid for an NFL record third straight Super Bowl was denied.
Observations:
ON PATRICK MAHOMES: The Kansas City quarterback has now lost two Super Bowls, and both were blowouts. In Sunday’s cudgeling, the Eagles stormed through an overmatched offensive Kansas City line to sack Mahomes six times, hit him 11 times, and pressured him at a high rate until the game devolved into a full-on clobbering. The Eagles didn’t allow a point until the Chiefs scored a touchdown with 34 seconds left in the third quarter.
Mahomes was frazzled, and no wonder. He had to throw from inside the vortex of the fierce pass-rush tornado generated by Philadelphia. Mahomes turned the ball over three times on two interceptions (including a pick six) and a sack-fumble. It was reminiscent of Tampa Bay’s 31-9 destruction of the Chiefs and Mahomes’ faulty protection in Super Bowl 55.
In the Tampa Bay loss, Mahomes was pressured on a staggering 59 percent of his dropbacks, and the Buccaneers didn’t have to blitz to get heat on him. In the Philadelphia loss, Mahomes was pressured on 53.3 percent of his dropbacks that occurred before garbage time. And as mentioned, the Eagles were able to rush just four guys and mob Mahomes.
At some point, it might be a good idea for the Kansas City front office to put together a solid offensive line for Mahomes. Just a thought. This will require at least two things: astute drafting, and a reallocation of payroll dollars. The Chiefs expect Mahomes to keep winning Super Bowls with bad offensive lines and (mostly) pedestrian wide receivers. Tight end Travis Kelce was an excellent target for a long time – and still has some great moments – but he’s gone through the inevitable career-fade stage over the last two seasons.
The story here isn’t that Mahomes has lost two Super Bowls and played poorly both times. The story? In both losses, he never had a chance because his offensive line was overrun and bullied. Mahomes just carried the Chiefs to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in his seven seasons as a starter. He shouldn’t be taken for granted.
MAHOMES VS. TOM BRADY: After Sunday’s sacking, I read a couple of game analyses that went sort of like this: “Let’s Pause the Brady-Mahomes comparisons!” Which, of course, suggests that it’s premature to elevate Mahomes to Brady’s level. Brady won seven Super Bowls during his 23-season career that made him the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Mahomes had three Super Bowl titles by age 29; Brady had three by age 27. But Brady’s longevity and sustained success separated him from every other quarterback. He won his first Super Bowl at age 23, and won his last Super Bowl at age 43. That’s remarkable.
So when we compare Mahomes to Brady, it isn’t about trying to make a case that Mahomes is the superior quarterback that is well on the way to eclipsing Brady. That’s insane. Mahomes can’t jump the line like that. Mahomes would have to play a very long time, and win four more Super Bowls to equal Brady. From a career standpoint, the Mahomes-Brady study should be limited to what each quarterback pulled off during their career progression – and in this case, focusing on age-related success.
If there is a foundation for legitimate comparisons, it’s this:
* In the wild-card era, which began in 1978, how many quarterbacks have won 17 postseason games through their age 29 season? Answer: Only one, Mahomes. No other quarterback has more than 10.
* How many quarterbacks have won at least three conference championships through their age 29 season? Answer: Mahomes 5, Brady 3, Troy Aikman 3, Ben Roethlisberger 3.
* In this era, what quarterbacks have started in the most conference championship games through their age 29 seasons? Answer: Mahomes 7, Aikman 4, Roethlisberger 4, Donovan McNabb 4.
* In this era, what quarterbacks have started the most Super Bowl games through their age 29 season? Answer: Mahomes 5, Brady 3, Aikman 3. In case you’re wondering, Brady’s age 29 season came in 2006. He would not start his fourth and fifth Super Bowls until age 30, and 33, respectively.
* In this era, what starting quarterbacks have won the most Super Bowls through their age 29 seasons? Answer: Mahomes 3, Brady 3, Aikman 3.
Perhaps this is the most meaningful comparison: In his first five Super Bowls, Brady went 3-2. In his first five Super Bowls, Mahomes went 3-2. If we want to parse that a little, then here’s the point to make: Brady lost his first two Super Bowls (both to the Giants) by an average of 3.5 points. Mahomes lost his two Super Bowls by an average of 23 points.
Another relevant comparison: In his first seven full seasons as a starting quarterback, Brady had a .793 winning percentage. In his first seven full seasons as a starter, Mahomes had the same .793 winning percentage.
Or if you want to slice it another way, using each quarterback’s first 133 career starts, regular season and postseason combined: Mahomes 106-27, Brady 104-29.
Mahomes has nothing to apologize for. At the age of 29, he has won 17 of 21 playoff games and his overall winning percentage as a starter in the regular season and postseason is a preposterous .797.
In only seven seasons, Mahomes has competed in a combined 12 conference championship games (7) and Super Bowls (5). But the next stage of Mahomes’ career will be more challenging unless the Chiefs do an adept job retooling his supporting ensemble instead of expecting Mahomes to constantly save them in tight, down-to-the-wire games.
IN PRAISE OF JALEN HURTS: Philadelphia’s 26-year old starting quarterback was fabulous in Super Bowl 59. He completed 17 of 22 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns and a 119.7 passer rating. He also set a Super Bowl record for most yards rushing (72) by a quarterback and ran the tush-push play for another touchdown. There was one interception … but so what?
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo understandably set up his defense to contain Eagles all-galaxy running back Saquon Barkley. And the Chiefs got it done, checking Barkley to only 57 yards on 25 carries. But in aggressively arranging his personnel to stop Barkley, Spags also made a challenge to Hurts: we don’t think you can beat us, so we’ll focus on your running back instead.
Hurts defeated Spagnuolo’s strategy with ease. And with so many KC defenders positioned inside the hash marks, Hurts threw 77.3 percent of his passes outside the numbers, beating the one-on-one coverage by completing 8 of 10 passes for 81 yards and an excellent 0.43 EPA per play. On his downfield throws (10+ yards) Hurts hit on 5 of 7 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown. Pro Football Focus credited Hurts with four big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy play.
Over his final 10 regular-season games – not counting a late game at Washington when he suffered an early concussion – Hurts connected on 70 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns and one interception and had a 115.5 passer rating.
In Philly’s four postseason wins, Hurts completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 726 yards, five touchdowns, one interception and a 108.6 passer rating. He also injected more fuel into the Eagles offense by rushing for 726 yards and five scores.
The postseason run – capped by a sharp Super Bowl performance – will do wonders for how Hurts is perceived by media and critical fans. Fairly or unfairly, quarterbacks are judged by Super Bowl rings.
Hurts, with one, has as many as Len Dawson, John Unitas, Ken Stabler and Steve Young, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. On top of that, it put Hurts ahead of prominent young quarterbacks who haven’t won a Super Bowl – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.
VIC FANGIO’S MAGNUM OPUS: Fangio is on the short list of the best defensive coordinator of his time. He’s been a defensive coordinator for seven teams since 1995, and also had a three-year term (2019-2021) as Denver’s head coach. Fangio, 66, has moved around a lot during his career. Two reasons, at least: (1) he believes in playing his preferred style of defense; and (2) he is allergic to fools and won’t be polite just to appease them; and (3) insecure head coaches are uncomfortable with Fangio’s brusque personality.
The Eagles needed a major shakeup after an unsettling 203 season. And part of the changes included the hiring of two new coordinators: Fangio to run the defense, and Kellen Moore to devise the offense. Both moves, led by GM Howie Roseman, worked marvelously. (More on Roseman later.)
Under Fangio this season, based on the Extra Points Added metric (EPA), the Eagles were the league’s No. 1 defense overall, No. 1 against the pass, No. 4 against the run, and virtually tied for first for fewest points allowed per game at 17.8. Fangio isn’t a fan of blitzes; this season only four teams dogged quarterbacks fewer times than the Eagles.
Fangio wants a front four that can rush the quarterback without extra help from the blitz. He wants rangy linebackers who can move fast to the football or drop effectively into coverage. Fangio is a pure zone pass-defense guy. He uses the Cover 4 scheme – which has four defensive backs splitting the part of the field into four distinct quarters. Each DB is responsible for covering one of the quarters. He wants the offense to use short passes to methodically work their way down the field, with Fangio counting on his front four to pressure the quarterback into a missed throw or another mistake that kills a possession. And if the offense gets inside the 20-yard line on his defense, then Fangio tightens the screws to deny red zone touchdowns.
This approach has worked very well for Fangio during his career. And the Fangio philosophy and scheme worked smashingly well against Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Kansas City had only 23 yards on 20 plays in the first half. On their first nine possessions – as Philadelphia built a 34-0 lead – the Chiefs scraped for only 65 yards on 30 plays. That’s 2.16 yards per play. That’s incredible defense. And what came after that was absolutely irrelevant; the Chiefs scored three junk touchdowns after the competitive aspect of this game was over.
Sunday, the Chiefs couldn’t attack Fangio’s zone defense because Mahomes didn’t have time to wait for receivers to find the soft spot. Philly’s front four made that virtually impossible, and the defense all over everything that Mahomes tried to do.
By having such a vicious, as-is pass rush with their four D-linemen, the Eagles played nickel defense – which deploys a fifth defensive back – on 98 percent of the snaps. And the Eagles used a “light” box 91 percent of the time, with the front seven becoming a front six.
That gave Philly one less defender for patrolling the run, but Fangio figured the Chiefs had no interest in running the football. And he was correct. According to the 33rd Team NFL analysis site, Fangio called a zone coverage on all but two dropbacks, and the Eagles played Cover 4 on 59.5 percent of plays – the third-highest rate by a defense since 2018.
When Mahomes had some time to throw the football, he didn’t know where to go with it. So he ended up taking sacks, getting hit, or forcing throws. The Eagles set a trap for Mahomes on his two interceptions. Kansas City coach Andy Reid – one of the most creative offensive minds in league history – tried to flood the field with five receivers. It didn’t matter. Fangio’s defense just hounded Mahomes and ball-hawked passes.
Until Sunday, Fangio’s defenses were 0-8 against the Reid-Mahomes offense. Even though Fangio came up with lots of ways to slow the Chiefs down in those games, he still lost all eight of them. But not on Sunday. The Fangio game plan wasn’t perfect, but it was close to that before the contest became a non-contest once the Iggles opened the 34-point lead.
The other thing that stood out to me about the Fangio defense was how the unit put every postseason opponent into a stranglehold, suppressing the other team’s offense for a huge portion of the game to give the Philadelphia offense a chance to kick in and build leads. Here’s what I’m referring to, in chronological order:
* No touchdowns allowed in Green Bay’s first seven possessions.
* One touchdown allowed on the Rams’ first 10 possessions.
* One touchdown allowed during Washington’s first seven possessions.
* No touchdowns allowed on Kansas City’s first nine possessions.
HOWIE ROSEMAN, TAKE A BOW: The Eagles GM was kicked upstairs in 2015, with then Philly head coach Chip Kelly given the general manager responsibilities with authority over roster decisions. That didn’t work, and Roseman returned to the general manager chair in 2019. There have been some ups and downs, but Roseman had an amazing offseason that made this Super Bowl possible.
Here’s a partial list of Roseman’s moves after the 2023 season that got the Eagles primed for 2024:
+ Retained head coach Nick Sirriani, who unraveled in 2023 as the Eagles collapsed late in the season before getting demolished 32-9 by Tampa Bay in the first round of the playoffs.
+ Hired offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
+ Hired defensive coordinator Voc Fangio.
+ Signed running back Saquon Barkley.
+ Signed linebacker Zack Braun.
+ Signed defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
+ Signed guard-tackle Mekho Bacon.
+ Signed linebacker Oren Burks,
+ Drafted cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in 1st round.
+ Drafted cornerback Cooper DeJean in 2nd round.
+ Drafted defensive end Jalyx Hunt in 3rd round.
+ Traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson.
+ Gave contract extensions to wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, guard Landon Dickerson, offensive tackle Jordan Mailata, and kicker Jake Elliott.
Roseman already had a roster loaded with talent before he reinforced the defense with several superb additions. The list of draft picks brought in by Roseman included four Georgia football alums: Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, Jordan Davis and Nolan Smith.
The bad news for the rest of the league: Philadelphia has one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and has a clear chance to do this again — soon — and grab another Super Bowl trophy.
Congrats to the Eagles and their fans.
–Bernie
