Missouri closed the regular season with a 9-3 record, and can push that victory total to 10 by having a successful day of bowling. That’s a good season, yes … but it could have been a better one. I’ll elaborate on that point later on in the column.
With a favorable schedule that was deemed the fourth lightest among the 16 SEC teams – and no heavyweight threats lined up to harm them in non-conference play – the Tigers should have been a serious contender for a spot in the 12-team playoff tournament.
Those hopes and dreams were blown to smithereens in three road losses at Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina. The Tigers lost to the Aggies and Crimson Tide by a combined score of 75-10. In each of the three road losses, Mizzou pulled early no-show and got cumulatively outscored by a humiliating margin of 58-6.
MU’s credibility took a major hit with the three roadkill defeats. An impressive second-half comeback at South Carolina came up short, but a loss is still a loss no matter how we choose to parse it.
Overall, I was pleased with Missouri’s season. That’s largely based on the program’s low historical standards and the understanding of how difficult it is to rise to the top tier. Missouri followed the 11-win season in 2023 with nine wins (and possibly 10) in 2024. That may be so-what kind of stuff to Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State – but it’s a pretty big deal at Missouri. It reflects the real progress that’s been made by coach Eli Drinkwitz in his quest to build a more prestigious program. Climbing an imposing mountain is arduous work and can’t be hurried. It is accomplished in steps. It’s hard work.
Drinkwitz has elevated Mizzou with his high school recruiting, his resourceful work in the transfer portal, his advocacy of upgrading the home stadium, and the salesmanship that’s essential for firing up the big-money donors. Because of Coach Drink, Mizzou got a jump on the NIL challenge – which is hugely important now – and that should continue to pay off.
And though the phrase “team culture” is overused, it applies here. A healthy culture is healthy for recruiting, and provides strength in riding out the tough times. Culture can make a team resilient and able to snap back from awful losses and painful adversity.
DISAPPOINTMENTS? SURE
1) As I mentioned, MU’s schedule set up nicely for a change to a playoff spot but the Tigers failed to maximize the opportunity. Mizzou was knocked back in getting destroyed in the road losses at Texas A&M and Alabama – and then knocked when the MU defense couldn’t make a stop to seal a win at South Carolina. For the Mizzous of the major college football world, it’s three strikes and you’re out. (Exceptions could be made for more esteemed programs … say, Alabama.)
2) There was a stark difference in Missouri’s performance against good teams and bad teams. During the regular season the Tigers went 6-3 against power-conference teams this season. In the six wins, MU beat opponents that were 17-38 against power-conference opponents during the regular season … a winning percentage of .310. In their three losses, Mizzou was defeated by teams that had a 17-9 record (.654) when facing power-conference competition.
3) This was not a “Game Control” team. As noted, Missouri had a troubling tendency to start slowly. Looking at their contests against every power-conference opponent other than Mississippi State, Mizzou was outscored 104 to 46 in the first half. They trailed Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Alabama, Oklahoma and South Carolina at halftime and were tied at the half against Auburn and Arkansas. The Tigers had just one halftime lead – 17-14 against Boston College – in their nine games against power-conference opponents.
4) Quarterback Brady Cook had some incredible moments and came through with daring feats of college-football heroism that saved Mizzou from a couple of terrible losses – we’ll always remember the “Hospital Game” – but overall his performance declined from 2023. The primary problem was accuracy.
I compared Cook’s key 2023 numbers to the corresponding 2024 stats on the right, and I’ll use the national ranking among Power Conference quarterbacks to provide context. The sample size is a list of 66 to 70 quarterbacks that attempted at least 150 passes against FBS competition in each of the last two seasons.
— Expected Points Added, or EPA: Cook was 11th nationally last season and 24th this season.
— Percentage of on-target throws: 21st nationally in 2023, but a poor 60th in 2024.
— Catchable ball rate: 28th last season and 58th this year.
— Passer rating: I prefer to use the enhanced Sports Info Solutions version. Cook was 12th among power conference quarterbacks last season and dropped to 35th this season.
— Big-play pass completion percentage: 8th last season, and 44th this year.
There are other stats like that. For example, last season Cook had a touchdown-pass percentage of 5.7%, and that plummeted to 3.1% this season.
5) Luther Burden III: I’ll get straight to the point … Missouri didn’t come close to maximizing Burden’s sensational talent and playmaking ability. Oh, he had some good games and his share of electric moments. But because of Cook’s downfield-passing flaws and the coaches’ lack of creativity in finding ways to get Burden open, Missouri made it too easy for defenses to control him.
Here’s where Burden stands in national rankings among power conference wide receivers and tight ends. The list consists of 67 pass catchers that were targeted with at least 70 throws vs. FBS competition:
+ Yards receiving: 49th of 67
+ Air yards: 55th of 67
+ Intended air yards: 56th of 67
+ Receiver rating: 18th of 67
+ Big-play catches: 26.3 percent of his receptions, ranking 39th
+ Yards per game: 57.0 … 51st of 67
+ Yards per target: 8.3, 30th of 67
+ Avg depth of completion: 5.1 yards, 54th of 67
+ Avg depth of target: 8.3 yards, 50th of 67
Burden had one of the best catch rates in the nation, pulling in 94.5 percent of the passes thrown his way. This also gave him one of the lowest dropped-pass rates in the nation. Burden was targeted 60 times when utilized as a slot receiver and was effective in the role.
The passer rating when getting the ball to Burden as a slot man was 119.7, which ranked 30th among 169 receivers that had at least 15 targets from the slot. So that’s good. His five touchdown catches from the slot was good. The problem? The Tigers needed to get the rock to Burden more frequently. And they had to set him free to create mayhem as a downfield threat that can fly past defensive backs.
Having Burden in the slot reduced his impact. Here’s what I mean: when Mizou quarterbacks connected with Burden for a big-play reception percentage of 26.7%, and that ranked 99th in the nation. That’s incomprehensible. And because of the short depth of throws aimed at Burden as the slot receiver, defenses could swarm the ball and tackle Burden before he could run away. The MU coaches did opponents a favor. It’s a heck of a lot easier to eliminate Burden as a deep-ball threat when his own coaches are eliminating him as a deep-ball threat as well.
A gifted talent like Burden should have been a more dangerous coast-to-coast receiver. But in all candor, Mizzou didn’t have a deep-pass missile launcher in Cook, and that obviously limited the amount of damage he could inflict. Cook completed 15 of 46 passes (32.6%) on throws that traveled 20+ yards in the air. Pro Football Focus graded Cook at No. 59 among 75 FBS quarterbacks on passing attempts that flew at least 20 yards. Yes, Mizzou wasted Burden. There was a lot more there. It’s a shame.
MIZZOU POSITIVES? MANY
It’s important to view the 2024 season as part of an entity that covers the last two seasons. That’s because Missouri’s dormant program came alive beginning in 2023, and the ‘24 campaign was a continuation. There are many things we can cheer about.
NATIONAL PRESENCE IN THE POLLS: Going back to Oct. 15 of the 2023 season, Mizzou has been ranked among the top 25 nationally in 22 of the last 24 polls. That includes last season’s final poll and this season’s preseason poll. If you ask me, going 22 for 24 is a helluva batting average.
OVERALL WIN TOTALS: Missouri has 20 wins against all competition since the start of last season. Only eight power conference teams have more: Oregon 24, Georgia 23, Texas 23, Michigan 22, Penn State 21, Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 21 and Alabama 21. Then comes Missouri, Ole Miss and Washington with 20. Mizzou should be proud of that.
VICTORIES IN SEC GAMES: Over the last two seasons, only Georgia and Alabama have a better record than Missouri in the 16 conference games over that time. Georgia went 14-2 and Alabama was next at 13-3. Three others came through with 11-5 marks: Mizzou, Ole Miss and LSU. Mizzou moved up.
HOME-FIELD SUCCESS PART I: At 7-0, Missouri finished the regular season as one of only 10 power conference teams that went undefeated at home. The other nine were Oregon, Georgia, Alabama, Indiana, Tennessee, Arizona State, Washington, Miami and Georgia Tech. That’s another sign of legit progress for Mizzou.
HOME-FIELD SUCCESS, PART II: Dating back to last season, Mizzou has won 10 in a row at home. And the program’s 13-1 home record since the start of the 2023 season is one of the best in the nation among power conference teams. Only three power conference teams topped it: Oregon 14-0, Georgia 13-0, and Washington 13-0. The next six power conference teams went 13-1. Mizzou is in that group along with Tennessee, Ohio State, Ole Miss, LSU and Alabama. I’d say Missouri is hanging out with the big boys in terms of establishing a home-field edge.
STUBBORN AND RESILIENT: The 2024 Tigers could have been pushed back into mediocrity but the coaches and players wouldn’t let it happen. Seriously, their 9-3 could have realistically landed at 7-5 or even 6-6. But Mizzou persisted and prevented that.
In their nine matchups against power conference opponents, Mizzou trailed or was tied at the half in seven of the nine contests.
The Tigers had five comeback wins at home against power conference delegations. They were down 14 to 3 to Boston College and won. They trailed Vandy 27-20 and won. They were losing 17 to 3 to Auburn and won. They trailed Oklahoma 23 to 16 and won. In Saturday’s final home game, Mizzou found themselves down to Arkansas 14 to 7 and 21-20 and fought back for the win. Mizzou put itself in precarious positions too many times but stacked wins by making thrilling escapes.
These games weren’t the best for our blood-pressure readings but ultimately gave us a reason to smile and feel good. Mizzou drove us crazy. Mizzou made us happy. Mizzou was frustrating. Mizzou was calming.
The bottom line is 9-3 with a chance to go 10-3. Since becoming part of a major conference in 1928, the Tiger program has put up nine-win seasons only nine times in 97 years. If MU can get to 10 victories, that would be only the seventh double-digit win total in 97 years. This is nothing to smirk about.
This program is in a more capable and hopeful place. The next challenge is to get to a great place and stay there. Making progress puts you closer to where you want to go. But Mizzou isn’t there yet. And I like that. The program has raised the standards and we expect more now. That’s the way it should be. Fans (and media) don’t expect more from a team unless they believe that team has the real potential to deliver.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Stats used in this column were sourced from Sports Info Solutions and Sports Reference.
