Who will win the 59th Super Bowl?
As you know, Kansas City will attempt to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. And if the Chiefs pull it off, the NFL title would be their fourth in six seasons. But even getting there again is not only remarkable but unprecedented; KC is ramping up for a fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six seasons.
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback at the outset of 2018, the accomplished partnership of coach Andy Reid and Mahomes is 17-3 in the postseason. Going back to Dec. 31 of the 2023 season, and including the playoffs, Kansas City has won 23 of the last 24 games started by Mahomes.
Uh, the Chiefs are pretty good.
Standing in the way of Kansas City’s incredible run are the Philadelphia Eagles, a tough and talented team that will bring the NFL’s best defense and the circuit’s top running back, Saquon Barkley, to the floor of the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday.
Two seasons ago, in Super Bowl 57, the Eagles constructed a 24-14 lead after three quarters but couldn’t quell a Kansas City rally. In his typical style, Mahomes guided his offense to 17 fourth-quarter points including the game-winning field goal with eight seconds remaining. Final score: Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35.
This fully aligned Philly football machine is better than the last Eagles team that stood up to the Chiefs in the first Super Bowl between the teams.
I’ll get to the game prediction later on in this analysis, but here’s one early forecast: Kendrick Lamar will NOT open the Super Bowl halftime show with “Not Like Us.”
Let’s warm up by breaking down some competitive keys that should have a significant impact in determining the victor…
CHIEFS MUST CONFINE BARKLEY
Well, yeah. In his 19 games this season, including three postseason scrums, Barkley’s production is downright preposterous: 2,760 combined yards as a rusher or receiver, 20 total touchdowns, and 110 first downs.
During the Super Bowl Era, which began in the 1966 season, only one back has topped Barkley’s total yards from scrimmage in a full season that includes postseason action – Denver’s Terrell Davis, the Hall of Famer, who amassed 2,762 yards from scrimmage in the 1998 campaign. Barkley will move ahead of Davis during Sunday’s game.
Steve Spagnuolo – former head coach of the St. Louis Rams – has been tasked with the responsibility of neutralizing Barkley. Here are some pertinent facts on Spags, who became KC’s defensive coordinator before the 2019 season:
1. Spags has coached in 23 NFL postseason showdowns during his coordinator career, and his defenses for the Giants and Chiefs have allowed only one running back to compile 100+ yards rushing in a game. That was Marion Barber (Dallas) in the 2007 NFC playoffs. But let’s forget about that. No big deal. The Giants won the game.
2. Spagnuolo has found ways to roadblock great teams and great players before. The classic was the Giants’ massive upset of New England in the Super Bowl that capped the 2007 season. The Patriots were 17-0 coming into the game, but the Giants pulled it off despite being a 12.5-point underdog. The Patriots averaged 38.6 points that season, but Spags-arranged defense held Tom Brady and his playmakers to 14 points. And after averaging 411 yards offense per game, the pyrotechnic Patriots managed only 274 against the Spagnuolo attack dogs. That stunner is the top example of why Spagnuolo will have five Super Bowls triumphs to his credit as a defensive coordinator if Kansas City can prevail over Philadelphia.
3. In 18 postseason games as KC’s defensive chieftain, Spagnuolo’s tacklers haven’t allowed an opposing back to rush for 90 yards. And during his six seasons as KC’s defensive coordinator (regular season and playoffs) his unit has yielded a 100-yard rushing performance to a running back in only 13 percent of the games.
4. In last season’s Super Bowl victory, an overtime win over San Francisco, Kansas City corralled the 49ers’ excellent running back Christian McCaffery, who had 80 yards rushing on 22 carries for an average of 3.6 yards per run. McCaffrey caught eight passes in that one (including a TD reception) but the Chiefs did a good job of restricting a back who juked for 2,203 yards and 21 touchdowns during the 2023 season. That was no minor feat. Based on several important metrics, the Niners’ rushing attack was ranked No. 1 in the league in 2023, but Spagnuolo found a way to mitigate the damage. And two seasons ago, the Spags defense yielded only 3.6 yards per rush in their Super Bowl win over the Eagles.
5. Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts is an effective runner who posed a problem for the Chiefs two seasons ago when the teams competed in the Super Bowl. Hurts had 15 rushes for 70 yards and three touchdowns, and his designed runs flummoxed Kansas City. Will Spagnuolo have some adjustments ready? The Philadelphia running back posed no problem for KC, rushing 17 times for 45 yards. That team’s best back was Miles Sanders. With Barkley revving up in the backfield this time, Spagnuolo’s group has more to worry about. And though banged up a bit, Philly’s offensive line is probably the best in the NFL.
I don’t think Philadelphia’s coaching staff will be as dumb about the team’s run game the way the Bills were in the AFC Championships. The Spags defense couldn’t stop Buffalo running back James Cook, who scooted for 85 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. But Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady inexplicably stopped feeding the ball to Cook late in the game. I don’t think we’ll see Philly’s offensive coaches turn Barkley into a non-factor with the game on the line.
Here’s a stat that frames this Spags vs. Barkley matchup: a running back has reached the 90-yard rushing threshold in only one of the last nine Super Bowls including the last five in a row. In Super Bowl history, teams that have gotten at least 90 yards rushing by a running back are 23-10. And teams that had a 100-yard game by a RB are 17-5.
THE EAGLES: SMOTHER THE CHIEFS IN THE RED ZONE
This will be a huge factor in Super Bowl 59. I’ll lay it out for you.
By its normally high standards the Kansas City offense wasn’t particularly flashy or explosive this season, and so the traditional statistics like points per game and yards per game and yards per play aren’t dazzling. Far from it. But the Chiefs have excelled at putting together sustained drives this season. Their percentage of offensive possessions that invade the red zone was the second-best by an NFL offense this season. (The red zone, aka RZ, is that critical area inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.)
That said, cashing in has been frustrating for the Chiefs this season. Their rate of converting RZ opportunities into touchdowns (53.8%) is the lowest in Mahomes’ seven seasons.
Sunday the Chiefs will have to find a way to get through, or get around, the barricade set up by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio factor. He’s an established red-zone specialist who makes it especially difficult for opponents to score touchdowns. This season the Eagles were the league’s sixth-best defense at limiting touchdowns in the RZ. And that’s been a hallmark of just about every defense structured by Fangio.
The conflict in red-zone territory – Fangio vs. Andy Reid – could determine the outcome Sunday. In eight career games against the Reid-Mahomes offense – including one playoff tilt – Fangio’s defense held the Chiefs to a RZ conversion touchdown rate of only 37 percent. This is really impressive, considering Kansas City’s profound red zone success (around 63%) against non-Fangio defenses during the Reid-Mahomes era.
And what about goal-to-go situations? When facing defenses that weren’t coordinated by Fangio, the Chiefs produced touchdowns at a rate of 75 percent. But with Fangio putting up resistance, Chiefs have landed in the end zone on only 38 percent of their goal-to-go chances.
Fangio’s defense could prevent Kansas City from getting red-zone touchdowns when the Reid–Mahomes offense was in peak form … but this 2024 Kansas City offense has labored to come up with RZ touchdowns. With that in mind, we can expect Reid to come up with some special red-zone plays from the secret playbook he brings out for special postseason occasions.
KANSAS CITY’S YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
This is another thing to watch on Sunday. In short: Unlike past seasons, Kansas City’s passing game lacks big-play explosiveness and relies on receivers rolling up yards after the catch. Here comes Fangio again. According to the superb NFL data analyst Warren Sharp, Fangio has set up his defenses to take away the deep ball and force the Chiefs to go with shorter throws – with defenders swarming to the receiver for a quick takedown.
As Sharp has explained, 58 percent of Mahomes’ total passing yards this season have come on yards after the catch (aka YAC.) Kansas City’s speedy rookie wide receiver, Xavier Worthy, has gained 62% of his receiving yards after making the catch. Problem: Philadelphia’s defense is No. 1 in the NFL at limiting YAC.
Sharp points out that in his last four games against a Fangio defense, Mahomes has averaged less than seven “air” yards per passing attempt. The Chiefs have settled for short throws, which is precisely what Fangio wanted. Mahomes has a modest total of 10 touchdown passes in eight matchups against the Fangio defense.
This isn’t just a Fangio thing. The Chiefs have played small ball all season. Mahomes has thrown 38% of his passes to the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s the second highest rate among NFL quarterbacks this season. I’m looking to see if the Chiefs make heavy use of “12” personnel – one running back with two tight ends. That could be effective at attacking the middle of the field that offers some operating room. And sets with two tight ends could bolster a bland KC running game that has been poor at generating explosive runs this season. And that’s glaring because the Chiefs played a schedule that had some of the easiest defenses in the league to run the ball against.
PRESSURING JALEN HURTS
Kansas City is outstanding at defending the pass, ranking No. 1 in the league at controlling the skies when facing Top-10 rated passing attacks.
The Eagles do an excellent job of getting the ball to their outside receivers – DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown – and the Chiefs have two of the league’s best cornerbacks in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. But A.J. Brown is physical and fast and can match up well against any corner. One thing the Eagles might try is moving Brown inside, to line up in the slot. The Chiefs won’t expect that, and Brown could be a matchup headache for KC.
But even with their elite offensive line, the Eagles will be challenged to repel Spagnuolo’s large volume of creative blitzes. He’ll get after quarterbacks with blitzes the Chiefs have never used in a game; his blitz packages are forever changing. Spags has a sensational feel for when to spring a brilliantly designed blitz that ambushes and confuses the O-line and quarterback.
Again, I turn to data shared by Warren Sharp.
– No quarterback has been sacked at a higher rate per blitz this season than Jalen Hurts. He’s taken 19 sacks on blitzes this season. When Hurts doesn’t take a sack on an offensive drive the Eagles are 6th in the NFL in points per possession. When Hurts takes a sack on a drive they’re 23rd in points per possession.
– But isn’t Hurts a nifty runner who can avoid incoming pass rushers? He’s nifty, yes. He can escape, yes. But Hurts often holds onto the ball too long, and so he doesn’t dodge sacks as well as assumed. Hurts ranks 6th among NFL quarterbacks in scramble yards but Baker Mayfield has more. Hurts has averaged about 18 yards per game on scrambles. Among NFL quarterbacks who started at least seven games this season, only three had a higher sack rate than Hurts. Spagnuolo obviously will have some exotic blitzes planned, and Hurts must get rid of the football quickly … or it will be a long and bruising evening for Philadelphia’s quarterback.
– Warren Sharp shared a telling statistic earlier this week, showing where Hurts is ranked among 37 NFL quarterbacks when pressured by the defense.
#37 in success rate
#37 in EPA per pass attempt
#33 in sack rate
#32 in yards per pass attempt.
– According to the relevant metrics, the Eagles have played the league’s easiest schedule this season in terms of the quality of the opponents’ pass defense. And pass defense is a Kansas City strength.
FINALLY, A PREDICTION
I see this game unfolding in one of two ways: (1) a more talented Philadelphia wins in a blowout, or (2) Kansas City emerges with another close-call victory, winning by a one-score margin.
I think the Eagles are the better all-around team, but that doesn’t matter against the Chiefs, who are a proven championship team with a championship DNA.
Mahomes has had one of his worst statistical seasons. Tight end Travis Kelce has been a subdued presence until recently. Doesn’t matter.
Kansas City’s best receiver, Rashee Rice, blew out his ACL and has been missing all year. Doesn’t matter.
The Chiefs have had major problems at offensive tackle, and Mahomes absorbed a career-high 42 sacks. Doesn’t matter.
Kansas City lost their best running back, Isaiah Pacheco, to injury for much of the season, and their defense got beat up by injuries. Doesn’t matter.
In points scored and yards gained, this was the lowest-ranked offense put forward by Reid-Mahomes in their seven seasons. Does not matter. matter.
What did the Chiefs do? They lost one game all season in games they were trying to win. The Chiefs have the NFL’s best quarterback, best head coach, and best defensive coordinator.
In their six seasons together (2019-2024), the Reid-Spags-Mahomes trio has the NFL’s top winning percentage (.780) in the regular season. They have the top winning percentage (.889) in the postseason. Their overall winning percentage in postseason and regular season combined is a ridiculous .797. No other team is even close to that.
The Chiefs are closers because of Mahomes, Reid and Spagnuolo. They win tight games. They erase late deficits with fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. And Mahomes is the quarterback you want to be gripping the football in a one-score game late in the fourth quarter.
This is money time for Kansas City, a team that since 2019 is 2-0 in the wild-card round, 6-0 in the divisional round, 5-1 in the conference championship game, and 3-1 in the Super Bowl.
I respect the Eagles and see them as a serious threat to spoil Kansas City’s latest attempt to run the postseason table. I would not be surprised – at all – if the Eagles win. Hey, the undefeated heavyweight Mike Tyson was considered unbeatable until he lost to Buster Douglas. And the Eagles are a helluva lot better than Buster Douglas.
Depending on where you shop, Kansas City is either a one-point favorite – or a 1.5-point favorite – to win. And a lot of the smart, professional money is coming in late on the Eagles plus the points.
But after trying to talk myself into the Eagles all week, I just can’t do it. All because of Reid, Mahomes and Spagnuolo. Proven winners don’t always win, but Chiefs are more than just a proven winner in the Reid-Mahomes-Spags era. They’re one of the all-time greatest winners in NFL history. And I’m someone who believes that winning is a skill. It isn’t random. It isn’t luck. It has absolutely nothing to do with officiating, or any other conspiratorial nonsense being upchucked by whining diaper babies.
Saquon Barkley and Vic Fangio will probably ruin my investment, but I’ll go with Kansas City 26, Philadelphia 23.
Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend and the game.
–Bernie
