THE REDBIRD REVIEW
It has been said and written: the 2024 Cardinals are doing a poor job of hitting left-handed pitchers. And this opinion is true. Yes. Absolutely. It’s a fact.
OK, just how bad is it?
I have answers.
Let’s do some Bern-alysis.
To this point of the season their performance against lefty pitchers would rate among the very worst by the franchise … ever.
Of course, the Cardinals have played 96 games and can shape up in this split by the end of the full schedule. They still have 66 games remaining. They could improve. So consider this as nothing more than an in-progress report. But it’s pretty disturbing.
To grasp the extent of STL’s futility when batting against lefties, we have to use the sOPS+ metric at Baseball Reference. I’m sorry for the gibberish but it’s the best way to go.
The sOPS+ metric tells us how a team’s splits measures up, relative to the overall major-league split in the same category in the same season. The sOPS+ metric is important because it neutralizes league effects and normalizes them. And we can make a fairer, more accurate comparison.
OPS+ is a the adjusted (normalized) version of OPS. And 100 is average. Anything above 100 is better than average. Anything below 100 is worse than league average. That’s all you need to know.
The sOPS+ takes it deeper. The “s” stands for “split.”
So for any split, sOPS+ shows us how a performance rates relative to the overall league average. If a hitter has an sOPS+ of 112, that means he’s 12 percent better than the league average. If his sOPS+ is 88, it means he’s 12 percent below the league average.
OK, with all of that out of the way …
At the All-Star break the Cardinals have a sorry sOPS+ of 75 against lefties – which translates to 25 percent below league average in 2024.
An adjusted split of 75 is awful. When you’re 25 percent below average at anything, that’s a failing grade.
And indeed, the Cardinals were simply horrendous against left-handed pitching during first three-plus months, before the All-Star holiday.
Here’s the money stat:
Going back to 1901, these are the five worst offensive performances by the Cardinals against LH pitching in a season, based on our little buddy sOPS+ …
1918: 69 … 31% below league average.
* 2024: 75 …. 25% below league average.
1913: 79 … 21% below league average.
1916: 80 … 20% below league average
2009: 80 … 20% below league average.
Good grief.
This 2024 team is on course to be the second-worst team in franchise history at the challenge of hitting left-handed pitching. As I mentioned earlier, that metric could look more respectable by the end of the 162-game season.
We’ll see. If president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is shopping for a right-handed hitter that has an established history of cudgeling lefty pitchers, we sure can understand why.
The most damaging aspect of this big problem for the Cardinals are the rotten numbers posted by their right-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers. With the platoon-split advantage, STL’s right-handed bats should be winning the battle. But the opposite is happening.
At the break, STL’s right-side hitters are 20 percent below league average offensively when setting up against lefties. They rank 28th or 29th in slugging, OPS and homers. Pitiful.
Let’s travel back to 2022.
The Cardinals had NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt strafing lefties. He was joined in the mission by Nolan Arenado, who finished third in the league MVP voting that year. And who can forget the preposterously entertaining impact of the great Albert Pujols after he returned to the Cardinals for his farewell season?
Goldy, Arenado and Pujols destroyed left-handed pitchers in 2022. Based on wRC+, Goldschmidt was 165 percent above league average vs. lefties, Pujols was 112 percent above average vs. lefties, and Arenado was 58 percent above average vs. lefties.
The three fearsome hitters bashed a combined 35 homers against lefties in 2022.
– Goldschmidt’s profile vs. LHP that year was bonkers: .411 average, .515 onbase percentage, .813 slug, 1.327 OPS. Stop the fight!
– Pujols had a mighty .351 average, .405 OBP, .746 slug and a 1.150 OPS against lefties.
– Arenado slugged .616 vs. lefties and posted a .939 OPS against them.
The Cardinals had three other right-handed hitters that put up above-average numbers against left-handed pitching in 2022: Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill and Tommy Edman. Their performances ranged from 18 percent above league average (Edman) to 26 percent above average (O’Neill) to 41 percent above average (Carlson.)
Given that info, you won’t be surprised to know that the Cardinals had the best offense in the majors in 2022 against left-handed hurlers. The Redbirds punched lefties for an MLB-best showing in OPS, onbase percentage, slugging percentage, wRC+ and Isolated Power.
That fancy-pants metric, sOPS+? The 2022 Cardinals led the majors with a demonstration of force against lefties that came in at 25 percent above league average offensively.
That’s a whopping 50 percent better than where the 2024 Cardinals are now.
A difference of 50 percent, only two years later!
Much of this can be traced to the obvious decline of Goldschmidt and Arenado in 2024. There’s no mystery here. The ‘24 Cardinals have one dominant bat against lefty pitchers. That’s catcher Willson Contreras, who has a 1.002 OPS and is 81% above league average offensively vs. the lefts.
Among other Cardinal regulars, Goldschmidt and Masyn Winn have above-average numbers vs. lefties this season, but numbers aren’t spectacular.
Just two summers after their terrifying assault on trembling left-handed pitchers, Goldschmidt and Arenado have combined for only four homers in 178 at-bats against lefties in ’24.
Both gentlemen are slugging less than .400 against lefties, with Arenado sitting with an alarmingly low .352 slug.
Compared to his 2022 performance against lefties relative to the overall league split, Goldschmidt is down 53 percent in 2024.
It’s even more drastic for Arenado; compared to 2022 his performance (relative to the overall league split) has dropped 87 percent.
Where is Albert Pujols? Does he feel like making another comeback?
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
