The Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest for a three-peat Thursday night with the visiting Baltimore Ravens in town to kickoff the 2024 NFL season. And the fun. What a wonderful matchup.
Not that anyone asked me, but I’m commemorating this event with my own little tailgate party … well, it’ll be in the living room, with a party of two. Mrs. B. And me. And maybe some mooching cats.
On the menu are Baltimore-style crab cakes and Kansas City barbeque. (The cats will mewl for the crab.) Proud confession: it’s actually the fantastic St. Louis “Q” instead. Hey, you have to make smart substitutions.
The Chiefs and Ravens clashed in last season’s AFC Championship, and the result of the conflict saddened and angered my family and friends and assorted bunkies in Baltimore.
The Ravens had the home field advantage, and were equipped with quarterback Lamar Jackson, the league’s 2023 MVP. The Chiefs entered the building as betting-line underdogs and left with a 17-10 victory. And kisses and hugs. That will be my only Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce mention in this column.
The Ravens learned (again) the essential truth about the Kansas City Chiefs: it doesn’t matter what your team has, or where the game is played. Because the Chiefs have quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid – and sorry and your team doesn’t.
And that’s where we’ll begin with the possibility of the Chiefs winning a third consecutive Super Bowl. No team has done that in the Super Bowl Era.
(I do think an asterisk should be attached to that, because Vince Lombardi’s infamous Green Bay Packers won three straight NFL titles from the 1965 through the 1967 seasons. The first title in the sequence was won in the standard NFL championship game. The next two championships were won in the first two Super Bowls. So as I look at my cherished Vince Lombardi autograph in my home office, I felt obligated to point that out. Lombardi could be watching from up above.)
Can the Chiefs do this? It will be difficult. Several classic, elite, dynastic NFL teams had the opportunity to three-peat but struck out on the third try.
Don Shula’s Miami Dolphins, a team that went 17-0 in the 1972 season and won the Super Bowl for the second straight time in the ‘73 season. But they couldn’t complete the hat trick, in part because of a defense that wasn’t as fierce in 1974.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, led by coach Chuck Noll, deep-ball quarterback Terry Bradshaw and the intimidating Steel Curtain Defense. The Steelers won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1974 and 1975 … and again in 1978 and 1979. But in both instances they couldn’t put that third Super Bowl trophy in the sack. The 1976 team played at Oakland in the AFC Championship and lined up without injured running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier. In 1980, the Steel Curtain was ripping at the seams because of age; the ‘80 unit finished 15th in the league in points allowed.
The San Francisco 49ers. The empire built by coach Bill Walsh and personified by quarterback Joe Montana and wide receiver Jerry Rice. Montana and Rice collected two more Super Bowl rings by winning it all in 1988 and ‘89. Walsh retired after 1988, and the 49ers won it again with George Seifert as the HC in ‘89. But after a fantastic 14-2 season in 1990, the Niners were upset (at home) by the New York Giants in the playoffs. It was Montana’s final game for San Francisco.
The Dallas Cowboys, 1992 and 1993. Jimmy Johnson, Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin. But the chance for a three-peat were doomed when meddling owner Jerry Jones pouted for not getting enough credit, and ran off Johnson in one of the dumbest, most egotistical football moves by an owner in NFL history.
The Denver Broncos of 1997 and 1998. After many years of greatness – but no Super Bowl conquests – quarterback John Elway won two in a row, then retired. That pretty much squashed an attempt to win a third straight Super. Oh, and the 1999 St. Louis Rams stepped forward with a dynamic offense that became known as “The Greatest Show on Turf.” Those were the days, man.
The New England Patriots, 2003 and 2004: the second and third Super Bowl triumphs for coach Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Why did the Patriots fail to make in three in a row? The 2005 offense malfunctioned, at least by the Brady-Belichick standards. And the Patriots went down in the playoffs in a turnover-plagued mess at Denver.
So what makes the 2024 Chiefs different than the others that flunked in the bid for three in a row? What are the realistic reasons to believe that Kansas City can do it again? If the Chiefs accomplish such an unlikely feat – this three-feat – it would be their fourth Super Bowl grand prize in six seasons.
Why The Chiefs Can Do This
1. The Mahomes-Reid partnership already stands as one of the best in NFL history. Since Reid moved up 17 spots in the draft to select Mahomes in 2017 – and made him the starter for the 2018 campaign – the coach-QB are 73-22 in the regular season and 15-3 in the postseason. Add those two records together, and you have a combined 88-25 mark that computes to an astonishing .779 winning percentage. That’s the best by any coach-QB combo during the Super Bowl Era. In their years together, Belichick and Brady had a combined .768 winning percentage in the regular season and postseason.
Mahomes and Reid have teamed for six AFC West titles, six AFC championship appearances, four trips to the Super Bowl and three Super trophies. With that incredible history of success, the Chiefs are always in the hunt, always a good bet, and never should be discounted just because no other team has won three consecutive Super Bowls during this era. Mahomes-Reid excel under pressure, and on the biggest stages.
2. The Chiefs actually have a better roster in 2024. The 2023 team was 9-6 after getting embarrassed by the Raiders on Christmas Day. It was a grind all season. Mahomes didn’t have a deep threat to connect with, defenses packed the intermediate area to reduce Kelce’s impact, and this team was absolutely vulnerable and beatable. The pass protection was problematic, especially at left tackle. And yet … KC still won the big game again. Serious title contenders never had a better chance to take the Chiefs down – but couldn’t do it. The Chiefs altered their approach, relied more heavily on Steve Spagnuolo’s exceptional defense, and could not be denied.
3. The Kansas City roster has been upgraded offensively. The Chiefs moved up to take wide receiver Xavier Worthy, the fastest player in the 2024 draft. They signed an established player maker at wide receiver, Marquise Brown, though he’ll miss Thursday’s game with a clavicle injury. The Chiefs brought back wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was a terrific complement to Kelce in 2022. Smith-Schuster is effective against zone defenses, and that makes it tougher for defenses to contain Kelce.
4. The deep ball will be back. In the 16 regular-season games that he played last season, Mahomes threw only 60 passes that flew 20 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And only 17 were completed. (Credit to The Athletic for those stats.) Worthy *especially* and Brown will change it. And Rashee Rice is another potential game-breaker. Mahomes has the receivers he needs for deep connections and plays that devastate a defense. The Chiefs got a steal with the 63rd overall pick in the 2024 draft by selecting left offensive tackle Kingsley Suamatia from BYU. He’s smooth and technically polished and should provide added protection for Mahomes – and more time for the QB to hit on those long passes that were missing in 2023.
5. The Chiefs have a helluva defense. This isn’t the kind of team that has to win a bunch of 41-38 shootouts. In 2023, the Spags defense ranked second in the NFL for fewest points allowed, second in sacks, second in QB pressures, second in QB hits, and was burned for only 19 touchdown passes. There is one concern: potential weakness at the cornerback position opposite the shut-down corner Trent McDuffie. The Chiefs opted to trade the outstanding cornerback La’Jarius Sneed to Tennessee for salary-cap reasons, and his absence can’t be waved off as no big deal. But the quarterback pressure should be as intense as ever, and that’s a big help to all of the defensive backs.
Why The Chiefs Won’t Get It Done
1. History. If this was so dang easy to do, some of the greatest NFL teams of the Super Era would have been outfitted for three rings in three years.
2. The AFC is loaded. Baltimore. Cincinnati. Buffalo. The rising young team in Houston.There’s Miami, Cleveland, Jacksonville (if QB Trevor Lawrence bounces back). The Jets could be dangerous if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy and be in the mood to play. There’s the LA Chargers, with quarterback Justin Herbert, who finally has a good head coach, Jim Harbaugh, to work with. My AFC sleeper is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Texans. With a first-time head coach (Demeco Ryans), a rookie quarterback and a nasty pass rush, Houston won 10 games and a playoff contest last season and will only get better. The Texans may have the best front-four pass rushing group in the league.
3. Injuries. You can never rule them out as an ominous development. Imagine the Chiefs having to go without Mahomes for a long time. Carson Wentz? Ugh. Andy Reid is a masterful professor of quarterbacking, but he doesn’t spin miracles.
Have fun and enjoy the season.
It’s time for me to get the crabcakes going.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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