Bernie’s Bird Watching: Willson Contreras, First Baseman?

BIRD WATCHING

I’m tracking the Cardinals from afar this spring, with powerful and special binoculars that allow me to observe the Redbirds in their spring habitat from my home, 1,100 miles away.

Well, no, I can’t actually see them. But my purpose with the Bird Watching series is to monitor developments – and ponder some key questions – as the Cardinals prep for the real baseball that begins March 27.

In my first installment, I wrote about the wisdom of batting Masyn Winn at leadoff.

TODAY: WILLSON CONTRERAS ON THE MOVE

The Situation: After compiling 81 percent of his career plate appearances as a catcher since coming to the majors in 2016, Contreras and the Cardinals agreed it made sense to shift him to first base in 2025. During his career, Contreras has logged 6,213 regular-season innings and catcher and played only 51 innings at first base. Is this a good idea?

The Objective: Replacing the departed first baseman Paul Goldschmidt with Contreras was a surprise; there were probably a few gasps out there. But the plan has merit. Contreras has been STL’s best hitter in his two seasons with the team, performing 33 percent above league average offensively per wRC+.

And this was nothing new. Using only the plate appearances he had while doing the hard and bruising work as a catcher – sorry, but I’m not interested in irrelevant DH at-bats – Contreras has led major-league catchers in slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+ since 2016. And he’s second in onbase percentage over that time. As a Cardinal, Contreras generated a 148 wRC+ on days he wore the catching gear. That metric – which was 48 percent above league average offensively – made him the best-hitting catcher in the majors among those who had at least 550 plate appearances from the position since the start of 2023.

Additional Motive: Contreras was getting banged up as a catcher. Though one of the injuries he endured last season had nothing to do with catching – he got struck on the hand by a pitch while batting – Contreras averaged 69.5 starts at catcher over the last two seasons. That ranked 29th at the position. Contreras was utilized at DH an average of 31.5 games over the past two years.

The demands of catching are toilsome, and Contreras wasn’t in the lineup as often as the Cardinals wanted him to be in 2023-2024. First base isn’t an easy-breezy spot – there’s a lot of activity and responsibility – but with some luck Contreras will avoid calamity. But something had to change. Over the past two seasons Contreras ranked 167th among big-league hitters in plate appearances. He stepped into the batter’s box fewer times than Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman. Even old friend Paul DeJong has been at the plate more often than Contreras over the last two seasons. So has Isiah Kiner–Falefa. And Connor Joe. And Adolis Garcia. (I’ll stop now.)

The Potential Upside: By moving Contreras to first base, the Cardinals should (A) upgrade the grade of offense they received from Goldschmidt, who had the worst hitting performance of his career in 2024, and (B) open up the catcher position to give an expanded opportunity to young Ivan Herrera. That’s potentially important. Herrera was the second-best hitter on the team last season among Cardinals that had at least 250 plate appearances. He has strong upside. The only question is manager Oli Marmol, who seems to prefer Pedro Pages as the catcher. I suppose Herrera can DH against lefties, but that depends on Marmol’s desire to prioritize defense over offense when he makes choices at center field and catcher. But when Tommy Pham and Ty France have twirled a bat more often than Contreras over the last two seasons, something ain’t right. The Cardinals are trying to keep Contreras healthier and busier .

The Potential Downside: No positional move comes with a guarantee that everything will be smooth, seamless and a stress-free experience.

+ Paul Goldschmidt set a high standard for his defensive work at first base. He’s won four Gold Gloves (one with STL) during his career. In his six seasons as a Cardinal, Goldy ranked fourth in both defensive runs and Outs Above Average among first basemen who handled at least 2,500 innings. Goldschmidt was agile, instinctive, fundamentally crisp and an accurate thrower. Contreras won’t be as slick as Goldy, but that shouldn’t be held against him.

+ I don’t expect Contreras to be awful at first base, but the move will probably require patience. He has minimal experience there, and there is much to learn in a short time. Willson’s hard work with acclaimed teacher Jose Oquendo should speed up the educational process. Hopefully Contreras will adapt without struggling too much.

What Does History Tell Us? A lot, actually. Other catchers have moved to first base and distinguished themselves defensively; two such examples are Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. But there’s more.

+ As Minnesota’s primary first baseman from 2014 through 2018, the future Hall of Famer was credited with 21 defensive runs saved at 1B. More impressively, Mauer was MLB’s highest-rated first baseman with 22 Outs Above Average from 2014-2018. That’s impressive range for a longtime catcher.

+ And how about Santana? He’s a marvel, having won a Gold Glove for his defensive work – at age 38! – last season. Since 2015, among the 36 first basemen that have played at least 3,000 innings, Santana ranks sixth in defensive runs saved and is second Outs Above Average. Fantastic work. Buster Posey was slightly below average at first base after transferring from catcher, and no one cared. Salvador Perez has been solid in his 627 career innings at first base, and hasn’t made a full-time conversion – but started a career-high 44 games there last season.

+ Catchers on the move is nothing new. Craig Biggio switched from catcher to second base, won four Gold Gloves, and was inducted into the Cooperstown Hall of Fame. Dale Murphy was relocated from catcher to center field and won two MVP awards and five Gold Gloves. Brian Downing moved from catcher to left field and then became a swell DH. Johnny Bench – one of the best-ever catchers in MLB – was redirected to third base late in his career, and his defense was abysmal. Carlton Fisk was used in left field by the White Sox in 1986 and the experiment didn’t last long.

+ Transferring catchers has happened a few times in St. Louis. The most famous example was Joe Torre. He was the Cards’ starting catcher in 1969, and then split the 1970 season at catcher and third base. Red Schoendienst moved Torre to third base (161 games!) In 1971. That season Torre won a batting title (.363) and won the NL MVP. As time went on, Torre gradually shifted to first base. Looking back on his career, Torre said that his many years of catching wore him down and left him exhausted. Playing third or first rejuvenated him. Though he still held the primary catching job, the Cardinals used the future Hall of Famer Simba 63 times at first base and he did some roaming in left field. The Cardinals moved Todd Zeile from catcher to third base but also used him at first base. Zeile played a long time in the majors (16 seasons) and manned the corner infield spots for several teams. And Eli Marrero, a speedy catcher, was turned into a multi-positional player by Tony La Russa. Marrero played first base, some third base, and was utilized at all three outfield spots. The great Yadier Molina had some spot duty (111 innings) at first base.

Does Contreras Lose Value By Moving To 1B? This is a theory espoused many times through the years, and I don’t disagree with it because it’s true. (But there are exceptions.) The catcher’s spot is the least successful position – offensively – among the eight positions. Over the past three seasons, MLB catchers collectively performed 10 percent below league average offensively via wRC+. That was the lowest adjusted runs created rate by any position group. So if you have a starting catcher with elite hitting ability – which is hard to find – it makes him more valuable.

Contreras is a profound example of this. As mentioned, the catcher position generated offense that was 10 percent below average offensively (per wRC+) from 2022 through 2024. But over the same three seasons, Contreras had a 147 wRC+ when used as a catcher – making him 47 percent above league average. The Cardinals could maintain a good portion of that offense if Herrera catches a lot of games, but Marmol may have other plans in mind.

However: this isn’t as simple as it seems. The offense provided by a good/great hitting catcher loses value when he doesn’t play as often. Contreras had a career-high 1,110 innings at catcher for the 2018 Cubs. Since then, his most innings-caught in a season was 936 in 2021. Over the past three seasons Contreras has averaged 70 starts at 606 innings behind the plate. And over the last three seasons, Contreras ranked 55th out of 64 catchers (minimum 1,000 innings) in the pitch-framing metric.

The Conclusion: Contreras is a bat-first player. And the overall offense collectively produced by MLB first basemen over the past three seasons – 10 percent above league average – isn’t anything special. And Contreras’ impact with the bat will likely give the Cardinals one of the best-hitting first basemen in the majors.

If Contreras has a wRC+ that’s 40 percent above league average next season — which would be in his established range — it would represent a 28% improvement over what the Cardinals received offensively at first base in 2024. And it doesn’t matter what Goldschmidt might do with 81 games at Yankee Stadium; there was zero chance of him being back with the Cardinals. You may second-guess the decision if you’d like, but I’ll decline to join in. All that interests me now is how Contreras will do at his new position.

Contreras turns 33 in May, and you never know when the aging curve will hit a player. The ZiPS forecast for 2025 has Contreras at 17 percent above league average offensively, and that wouldn’t be what the Cardinals are expecting. Contreras has “bulked up” for 2025, but it’s unclear if the weight training will translate into increased power. The 162-game schedule will show us.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

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