Missouri won’t be invited to compete in the first 12-team national college football postseason tournament. The Tigers are not up to standard. Horrible losses to Texas A&M and Alabama ruined the Tigers’ chances, but Mizzou can still have a positive season.
Was Missouri overrated at the beginning of the season? Yes, no question about it. But no misdemeanors were committed. There were no infractions. That’s how it goes with the college football polls. The first set of Top 25 rankings going into the new year are largely shaped by what happened in the previous season. And of course, the traditional powers – Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, etc. – are usually escorted straight into the VIP section. They benefit from decades of success, reputation, and the assumption of greatness.
Missouri isn’t a member of that particular club. But as an SEC team that went a fantastic 11-2 last season, the Tigers received some of that preseason VIP treatment. We can thank the SEC for that. Had MU gone 11-2 last year as a resident of the Big 12 conference, we wouldn’t have seen the squad go from 11th nationally in the preseason poll to No. 6 after defeating Murray State and Buffalo.
That was a courtesy extended to an SEC brand, because Mizzou had done nothing – early in the 2024 campaign – to warrant top-six status. And there is a downside. Anytime an up-and-coming hot shot moves into the elite and exclusive section of the polls, it makes the team a target … and the object of scorn and ridicule if they slip and fall. The skeptics line up and prepare to vandalize the school logo. (What are THEY doing here? Who have THEY beaten?)
At this point, eight games in, Missouri and the fan base has nothing to squawk about in terms of the team’s poll position. After getting stomped at Alabama, the Coach Eli Drinkwitz and his undergraduates were still given a nod of respect from the voters with this week’s No. 25 ranking. And ESPN’s College Football Power Index lists Mizzou at No. 24. On top of that, the FPI gives the Tigers a 7.7 percent chance of making the playoff. That’s so polite!
Missouri hasn’t played a good all around game this season. The schedule was hardly ominous, let alone treacherous. But the Tigers turned the journey into something hazardous. Missouri had to erase a deficit (at home) to get by Boston College, were fortunate to nudge past Vanderbilt, got blown out at Texas A&M, had a close-call win over a mediocre Auburn team, and lost by 34 at Alabama.
In the losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, Missouri got pummeled and outscored 75-10. In going 2-2 in SEC play so far, the Tigers have been outscored by 58 points. And the touchdown tally is rather bleak: 14 touchdowns for Mizzou’s SEC opponents, to only six TDs for Mizzou.
In theory – if not totally in reality – Missouri has four winnable games remaining in the regular season. After a bye week, the Tigers will host Oklahoma, travel to South Carolina, travel to Mississippi State, and then welcome Arkansas into Faurot Field on Nov. 30.
On average, the FPI simulations have Mizzou (6-2) finishing the regular season with 8.3 wins and 3.7 losses. Let’s just round it off to a clean 8-4. Would that be a disappointment?
Given the immense preseason hype, 8-4 would probably be viewed as a disappointment by the locals. But considering the stagnant state of this Mizzou offense, 8-4 seems about right … and perhaps a bit optimistic.
And really, that’s the No. 1 problem. I’m not even going to waste time trying to analyze the Missouri defense and special teams. This underperforming and underwhelming Mizzou offense is terribly deflating – on the field, and up in the stands. Too many drives stall for the team, and too many moods are ruined for the fans.
Let’s walk through this, shall we? And I apologize in advance for all of the numbers … but the stats completely tell the story of the team’s downturn – and depression – offensively.
1. Missouri’s scoring average has dropped by a shocking rate. Here’s a list of points scored per game in various categories, comparing 2023 to 2024.
– Against power conference teams: 33.1 points per game last season, 17.6 points this season.
– Against FBS-level winning teams: 30.3 points per game last season, and 13.3 points this season.
– Against ranked opponents: 28.0 points per game last season, and 5.0 points this season.
– Against SEC teams: 35.9 points per game last season and 15.3 points this season. This could change – probably for the better – during the final four-game stretch.
Considering the evidence that’s been collected so far, Missouri will have a hard time getting to 10-2 or 9-3 by the end of the regular season. And I say that without knowing the extent of quarterback Brady Cook’s injuries. Will he miss games? If so, how many? And if Cook plays, how well can he perform when limited by a high ankle sprain and an unspecified injury to his right (throwing) hand?
2. The Missouri passing game is embarrassingly inaccurate. And no, I am not exaggerating. This is a serious issue. The lack of sharpness in the air attack is bringing the offense down. OK, here’s the breakdown, comparing 2023 (to the left) and 2024 (to the right). For context, I’ll include the national ranking in each category, with the sample size limited to games against fellow power conference opponents. There are 69 power-conference teams this season. There were 68 power teams in 2023.
Catchable ball rate: 81.6% percent last season, ranked 31st – and 73.7% this season, ranked 69th among 69.
On-target throws: 71.7 percent last season, ranked 16th – and 57.9% this season, ranked 69th among 69.
Yards per passing attempt: 8.6 last season, ranked 13th – and that’s slipped to 6.2 this season ranked 59th. In addition, Mizzou ranked 9th in adjusted passing yards per attempt last season but is 55th this season.
Touchdown-pass percentage: 5.6% last season, 25th. And 2.4% this season, 63rd.
Passer rating: 101.7 last season, No. 12 … and 74.3 this season, No. 56.
Pass-rush pressure percentage: Missouri was 18th best at limiting pressure on the QB last season but that has skidded to 47th in 2024.
Positive passing-play percentage: 40% last season, No. 17. And 37.9% this season, 58th.
“Boom” passing-play percentage: 26% last season, No. 6. And only 17 percent this season, No. 62.
“Bust” passing-play percentage: 15% last season, No. 12. And 22% this season, No. 59.
Expected Points Added: 9th in the passing game last season, and 54th this season.
To put it mildly, the substantial decline of the MU passing attack is alarming.
3. And we can’t blame all of this on backup quarterback Drew Pyne. Listen, Brady Cook was struggling with his accuracy before he hurt his ankle in the Auburn game on Oct. 19. This is something I’ve been discussing regularly this season. Here’s what I’m referring to, and I’ll limit the stats to accuracy measures – and also go with the passer rating. One more note: these rankings are limited to the 87 power-conference quarterbacks that have attempted at least 30 passes against power-conference opponents.
Catchable ball rate: Cook ranks 74th among the 87 quarterbacks, and Pyne is 87th.
On-target rate: Cook ranks 85th among the 87 QBs, and Pyne is 86th. Mercy.
Passer rating: Cook (87.9) is 42nd among 87, and Pyne is last with a 19.8 rating. That’s quite a comedown for Cook; in 2023 he ranked 20th in passer rating among 76 power-conference quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes against power-conference defenses.
In the Expected Points Added metric by Sports Info Solutions, Cook ranked 11th nationally (power conference QBs) compared to 40th in EPA so far this season.
4. Because of the erratic quarterback play and accuracy problems, Mizzou wide receiver Luther Burden III is being wasted. Such a shame.. And it’s really pathetic. Here’s a comparison of some key stats in 2023 to 2024 …
– Receiving yards per game: 81.5 last season, 65.4 this season.
– Yards per target: 9.1 last season, 7.6 this season.
– Yards per reception: 13.6 this season, 11.7 this season.
– “Boom” play reception rate: 26.4% last season, 23% this season.
– “Bust” play rate: 16.5% last season, 21% this season. Burden’s “bust rate” is the sixth worst among qualifying power conference receivers in games against power-conference defenses.
Combined, Cook and Pyne have completed only 8 of 39 passes this season on throws that travel at least 20 yards.
5. There are other factors: pass protection and the inconsistent running game. This year’s O-line isn’t as firm as the 2023 version in the important task of warding off pass rushers. Last season the MU offensive line ranked 26th among the 68 power-conference teams in blown-block rate when pass blocking. This year, the blown-block rate is slightly higher, ans the unit has dropped to 48th in the rankings. To the O-line’s credit, it has done a much cleaner job of blocking the run, with a blown-block rate that ranks 32nd among power-conference teams. Last season MU was ranked 54th in the category.
Why is this important?
Because Cook is awful when pass rushers close in on him.
When rushed in 2023, Cook completed 40 percent of his passing attempts and had respectable numbers on catchable-pass rates and on-target throws. This season Cook has completed only 31 percent when pressured, and his on-target rate is down by nearly 20 percent from last season. When under pass-rush heat last season, Cook averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. This year, that has fizzled to 3.7 yards per attempt when under duress. It’s unsettling to see the across-the-board deterioration in Cook’s form.
No surprise, but it’s been tough to replace Cody Schrader, who led the SEC in rushing last season (among other achievements.) In games against power-conference opponents, Mizzou is averaging only 3.8 yards per rush (42nd) after averaging 4.6 yards per carry (20th) last season. In games against power-conference teams, Missouri is averaging 141.6 yards per game (37th) this season after rumbling to 172 rushing yards per contest (21st) with Schrader taking the lead. One of Schrader’s strengths was his discipline in attacking the designed run gap; he was among the best backs in the nation at doing that in 2023. MU’s current backs do a fine job in this area, but Schrader was at a different level.
Schrader was also sneaky-good when coming out of the backfield as a receiver.
The 2024 Tigers have been solid enough in running the football, but the ground game isn’t as reliable. And injuries to Nate Noel have slowed the engine. With Mizzou so poor at doing damage on passes that travel 20+ yards this season, it’s become a lot easier for defenses to put an extra tracker or two in the box.
This offense isn’t working. You can blame it on a number of factors including the play-calling of offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, or the work of the head coach. Offense is supposed to be a Drinkwitz specialty. But this offense must fly again, and that will be a challenge. Cook is hampered by injuries, but his performance had declined long before that.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
