THE REDBIRD REVIEW
5 Reasons Why The Cardinals
Made The Right Call
In Promoting Jordan Walker
From Triple A Memphis …
1. Walker earned it. The promising and talented young hitter, still only 22, had a very good rookie season in 2023. Sure, there were some hard times along the way, but Walker finished with a .276 average, .342 onbase percentage, .445 slugging percentage and an OPS+ that put him 13 percent above league average offensively. He also ripped 16 homers and 19 doubles. Nothing to complain about there for a dude that had never played a game above the Double A level in the minors. But MLB pitchers found his weakness: pitches low and away, getting him to chase. And that’s how they attacked the second-year Walker from the get-go in the first month this season. He batted .155. He needed a reset in Memphis. It took him a long time to find the groove, but Walker started going off on July 24. Between then and the promotion, he batted .343 with a .400 OBP and .687 slug for a 1.087 OPS.
2. The Cardinals gave Walker a list of things to work on to become more successful in the majors. Suggestions that could make him more capable in maximizing his rich talent and raw power. And over several months, Walker implemented those suggestions, one by one. It was a difficult process, but he checked every box …
– Stopped chasing as many low–and-away pitches out of the strike zone.
– Came to understand that his power would never fully reach the desired and expected levels unless he pulled the ball in the air – fly balls, line drives, etc.
– Hitting fewer ground balls. Since July 24, Walker’s ground-ball rate was 44 percent … still on the high side but not drastically so. And more importantly, Walker hit fly balls and line drives (combined) at a rate of 52 percent. Walker still isn’t pulling pitches as much as we’d like to see, but he’s made enough progress to warrant a return to The Lou.
— There’s real evidence to support the impact of his modifications. Since July 24, Walker has averaged a little over 92 mph in average exit velocity. Definitely better. He’s attacked with a 48.1 percent hard-hit rate. Wonderfully better. He’s centered pitches with a 14.7 percent barrel rate. Significantly better.
— This one jumped out at me: Walker had an average distance of 312 feet on fly balls before July 24. But from that point on, his average fly ball distance increased to 330 feet. That’s big.
— The combination of these factors came together in a way that enabled Walker to recently crank home runs that traveled 425 feet, 434 feet, and 446 feet.
So after the student learned the lessons and successfully applied them and developed a more foundational set of skills (and underlying metrics) to improve … What, are you going to tell him to stay there in Memphis? With this mediocre offense in St. Louis? All of Walker’s patient, hard work didn’t warrant a comeback with the Cardinals?
I’m sorry, I didn’t realize the Cardinals are overloaded with extraordinary hitters and had no room for Walker. Pardon my sarcasm. But this fretting over Walker … and the idea that it is too soon to bring him back … well, I disagree. Walker has punished big-league pitchers before; he it a lot in 2023. He just needed to fully accept and grasp the importance of doing things in a better and smarter way to enhance his natural talent and strength.
3. The Cardinals needed Walker. As you’ve noticed, they are short on right-handed hitters. Only two Cardinals that have been here all season – Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn – are safely above the league average in wRC+, which is a better version of OPS+. (In case you’re wondering, wRC+ adjusts for ballpark and league effects.) Depending on how the lineup is filled out each day, Walker’s right-handed swing will get at-bats four or five times per game. And that RH bat can be used to pinch hit and give the Cardinals a more dangerous matchup in close, late-inning settings.
4. The Cardinals needed Walker’s right-handed bat in their outfield. This is one of the most ridiculous stats of the year in Cards baseball: in all of the plate appearances by STL outfielders this season, only 12 percent were taken by right-handed hitters. (This includes the times when switch-hitter Dylan Carlson batted from the right side.) Excluding at-bats at the DH spot, only three right-handed hitting outfielders came to the plate for the Cardinals this season: Walker early this season, Carlson until he was traded, and Tommy Pham – who played his first game for the 2024 Cardinals on July 30. How crazy is that?
In 167 plate appearances this season, RH batters used as outfielders by the Cardinals have collectively hit only .211 with a .281 OBP and .333 slug. Oh, and there’s been just one homer – by Pham – and 16 RBIs … six by Pham. And Pham just got here! (Tommy’s other homer came as a pinch-hitter, when he launched a memorable grand-slam homer to help beat the Rangers in his first game since the trade. Considering all of that stuff — so bad — why the heck would anyone disapprove of adding Walker to the mix?
By the way: I am convinced that Pham will be a positive influence on Walker. Pham can be the best teacher and advisor that Walker can have – and that includes batting coaches.
5. The desire to prove it: This is an abstract view, but I believe another reason the Cardinals went with Walker right now stems from wanting to prove they can develop young hitters at the major-league level. The success has been limited in recent years; I’m thinking of Tommy Edman, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan and rookie Masyn Winn. And even with the three that remain here (Burleson, Donovan, Winn) there’s still much to prove, long term.
But think about the guys who never or rarely reached their potential with the Cardinals. Two are still here (Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar) and can develop, but are going through hideous struggles these days. The key here is enduring success — and not just a getting hot for a few weeks, a couple of months, or one season. Names: Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas.
And then there were the young hitters who weren’t given an extensive shot at playing time here Cardinals moving on and thriving for their new employers: Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia and Tommy Pham. O’Neill looks like he’s doing the same. And so, to an extent, is Lane Thomas. It’s way to soon to know with Carlson.
Pham? Yes, Pham. He had more of a chance here than Arozarena and Garcia, but the Cardinals blundered by trading Pham at the deadline in 2018. Look, manager Mike Matheny didn’t like Pham and Tommy’s straight-shooting candor, his sincere questioning of decisions, etc. But that wasn’t a reason to trade Pham … and certainly not after firing Matheny.
OK, so what can the front office, the manager and the coaches say if Walker becomes the latest heralded Cardinal – the next future star – to disappoint and depart? The questions will come blowing in …. why does this keep happening? Why can’t your major-league staff fix young hitters in St. Louis?
Hey, at this moment the worst thing the front office could do is get scared or nervous and play it real safe by keeping Walker at Memphis. If John Mozeliak, Oli Marmol and others really believe in Walker, then it was time to welcome him back.
With Jordan Walker, the Cardinals are a long way from anything that matches the labels of big-time bust or bitter disappointment. If Walker goes flops, the Cardinals will be shredded by critics for their failure with yet another young hitter. Let’s hope that Walker can avoid the same fate – and spend a long time doing great things over many years for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Thanks for reading …
It’s been a busy day here at the Miklasz Content Farm — two columns, two videos and a podcast — so please pardon my typos or minor boo-boos.
–-Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from Statcast, FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
