Bernie’s Redbird Review: 7 Things I Want To See From The Cardinals In Their Remaining Games.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here are seven things I want to see from the Cardinals over their final 41 regular-season games:

1. Let’s see a bleeping pulse: the Redbirds (60-61) are drifting their way into complete irrelevancy as a postseason applicant. But I’ll play along here. Even though their chances of filching a wild-card spot are increasingly remote, they technically aren’t out of it. They still have mathematical life. But not if they can’t find a pulse. In getting swept and embarrassed by the Reds, the Cardinals showed all the signs of a team that is quitting. OK, boys, show us that you still give a damn and are up for the fight to save your season. The Dodgers are in town, followed by the Brewers. If that doesn’t get your passion and intensity going, then you’ll be confirming that you have, indeed, quit on the season. Come up with more wins than we expect from you. Rise to the challenge of taking on superior teams. If y’all really think you can still make the playoffs, well, show us. Make it interesting,

2. I want to see someone to step up and take charge as a leader. It isn’t Nolan Arenado, who emits negative energy when things are going bad for himself or his team. It isn’t Paul Goldschmidt, but only because it isn’t his style to be proactive and aggressive. With Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright out of the clubhouse, the Cardinals simply don’t have championship-caliber leadership. Period. This team hasn’t been the same since Albert, Yadi and Waino were teammates for the last time in 2022. It’s no coincidence. It was time for others to emerge as leaders, and it has not happened. It was easy for some guys to hide with Pujols, Molina and Wainwright in the same clubhouse, tending to everything that required attention. But who’s next? A team with a strong collective character will have the quality leadership that makes it easier to push through the hard times.

Do the Cardinals have that element? I’m highly skeptical – and doubtful – but I’m sure there will be some happy-talk propaganda coming our way to suggest that the opposite is true … and the Cardinals have outstanding leadership! Hah. If this team had substantive leadership, we wouldn’t have seen the Cardinals go so soft and meek while getting clubbed 27-7 in four straight losses to the Royals and Reds.

3. I want to watch something really positive from Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. And with that, I want to see if anyone in the major-league operation has a dad-gum clue about what must be done to fix both young hitters. Their careers have gone sideways or backwards or both. The 2024 journey has been a real setback for both guys. There’s no justifiable reason for either hitters doing  so poorly. Yeah, I get it – players have to perform. They have to find ways to make adjustments and improve. We all know that.

OK, so why are the Cardinals paying several batting coaches? With the financial resources available to them, the Cardinals should have the finest coaching staff that money can buy. So, what’s up with hitters leaving here to instantly get better for their new team in a fresh environment? We’ve seen this happen too many times.

Dylan Carlson had a morbid .515 OPS and didn’t homer in his 121 at-bats as a Cardinal this season. His OPS+ was an alarming 54 percent below league average offensively. In first 30 ABs for Tampa Bay, Carlson had two homers, a .343 onbase percentage, .467 slug and .810 OPS. And though it’s obviously very early, Carlson’s OPS+ is 30 percent above league average.

Even with some injury time with Boston this season, Tyler O’Neill has 22 homers, a .544 slug, and .900 OPS. As for OPS+, O’Neill is 43 percent above league average offensively for the Red Sox. This compares favorably to his career-best season in St. Louis (2021) when T.O. was 48 percent above league average offensively in OPS+.

This is a bad, bad, look for the Cardinals. I wonder if Bill DeWitt Jr. throws any objects at his TV set as he watches talented young hitters fail here and flourish elsewhere? Batting coach Turner Ward has struck out with too many struggling young hitters. The latest are Walker, Gorman and Lars Nootbaar.

In the two seasons since lead batting instructor Jeff Albert was nudged to pack his equipment and go, the Cardinals rank 24th in MLB in runs per game, are 22nd in extra-base hits, and are below league average in onbase percentage, slugging, OPS and total bases. Their .239 batting average with runners in scoring position ranks 27th – a main reason why only one team has left more runners on base than the Cardinals over the last two seasons.

4. I want to see the starting pitching bounce back and stabilize. If possible, that is. The rotation was pretty solid over the first three months, ranking 17th in the bigs with a 4.18 ERA. But since July 1, Cardinal starters rank 26th with a 5.36 ERA in 38 games. It is taking a gruesome turn in August, ranking 29th with a junk-pile ERA of 5.96.

For context, consider: in 2023 the battered and cracked St. Louis rotation had a 5.08 ERA that was the worst in franchise history in a full season. And after a decent start to ‘24, the rotation has been ripped for 5.22 ERA in the last 50 games.

That’s right; since the middle of June this group has an ERA that’s more pitiful than the franchise-worst 5.08 in during the 2023 disaster.

I’m looking at the three older veterans who were signed as free agents last winter: Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

Gray is 34, Gibson is 36, and Lynn is 37. How are they holding up? You can be the judge.

+ In the first two months of the season, Gray, Gibson and Lynn combined for a dandy 3.45 ERA in 31 starts.

+ In the last three months, Gray-Gibson–Lynn have combined for an inflated 4.83 ERA in 35 starts.

I didn’t include Miles Mikolas for a good reason. Since the start of the 2023 season, Mikolas (age 35) ranks 32nd among 34 innings-qualified MLB starting pitchers with a 5.00 ERA. He’s also tied for the worst strikeout rate (16%) over the last two seasons. Why would anyone of sound mind expect Mikolas to suddenly perform at a consistently higher level over the final six weeks?

5. I want to see opportunities given to younger players. This request applies if the Cardinals continue to lose and swerve to a larger deficit in the standings. There will be a time for a reality check. If the Cardinals are in a hopeless situation, it would be stupid to waste the schedule’s garbage-time on players who were largely responsible for the fall into mediocrity.

The list of potential candidates includes a list of guys at Triple A Memphis: infield prospects Thomas Saggese and Cesar Prieto, outfielder Matt Koperniak, slugger Luken Baker, catcher Ivan Herrera and pitchers Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo and Ryan Loutos. Hell, I’d be tempted to give a couple of starts to on-the-rise pitching prospect Quinn Mathews. Quickly working his way up the system, Mathews has an overall 2.49 ERA and 35.6 percent strikeout rate at three three levels in the minors. Currently at Double A Springfield, the lefty starter has a 3.11 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate in his first seven starts there.

6. I want to see the enigmatic Lars Nootbaar lock in and generate some head-turning offense. In 2022-2023 combined, Nootbaar had a .786 OPS, hit a homer every 25 at bats, and posted an OPS+ that was 18 percent better than the league average offensively. But this season Nootbaar has a .686 OPS, has homered every 46 at-bats, and has an OPS+ that’s eight percent below league average. Perhaps most glaringly of all: his .430 slugging percentage during 2022-2023 has fallen to .370 this year. That’s a huge drop of 60 points in slugging. The Cardinals and outfielders. The saga continues.

7. I want to see what’s left in the tank for Goldschmidt and Arenado. It’s a tiresome subject. We know all about their advancing age, the decreased home-run rate, the big pile of strikeouts (Goldy), the 15 double plays grounded into (Goldy) and Arenado’s 144-point drop in slugging percentage since his impressive 2022 season. The curiosity remains. And seeing how much is left will be helpful in plotting roster changes for 2025. Goldy is in the final year of his contract here, and Arenado’s big contract makes him difficult to trade. In the final 41 games, are Goldschmidt and Arenado capable of inspiring more confidence?

OTHER ITEMS OF POSSIBLE INTEREST

What Goes Up, Must Come Down: Especially for the Cardinals. Coming into Friday, the Redbirds are a full nine games behind the first-place Brewers again. The last time they trailed the Brewers by nine was after a loss at Milwaukee on May 11.

The Cards rapidly heated up after that, going 35-21 (.625) over their next 56 games. Their triumphant binge was capped by an action-filled doubleheader sweep of the Cubs at Busch Stadium on July 13. Suddenly, Milwaukee’s advantage over St. Louis had been sheared to just 3 and ½ games. The race was on!

At that point, via FanGraphs, the Cardinals had a 24 percent probability of winning the NL Central and a 47.2% shot of making the playoffs. That was a little more than a month and things were looking up for the feisty Cardinals!

And then came the recession. Since July 14 the Cardinals are 10-16 for a .385 winning percentage that represents the third-worst record in the NL over that time. And the Brewers revved up to go 15-10 (.600) for the NL’s third-best record during the stretch.

And that zig-zag pattern is how the Cardinals went from nine games out to 3 and ½ games out – and then back to being down nine again. If the opportunity they had before them after sweeping the Cubs on July 13 was a real thing, the Redbirds defaulted by allowing too many runs and not scoring enough runs.

During their season-changing 10-16 slide the Cardinals were outscored by 24 runs. And as of Friday morning FanGraphs rates the Cardinals’ chance of winning the division at 2 percent – down 22% from July 13. And Fangraphs has St. Louis with only a 5.4 percent probability of making the postseason – down 34.7 percent since July 13. Oh my.

Obligatory Standings Check: The Brewers, who will be here early next week, are safely in front of the NL Central riff raff as the weekend commences. They’re up by nine games over the Reds and Cardinals, lead the Cubs by 10 and ½, and have the Pirates wheezing at 12 and ½ games out of first.

Thanks for reading, and please have a swell weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.