Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Closer Look At How The Cardinals Took Off On A 12-1 Run

Welcome to The Redbird Review 

The Cardinals are streaking and peaking. Eleven consecutive wins. Twelve victories in the last 13 games. They’ve opened a four-game lead over Cincinnati in the bidding for the second NL wild-card ticket.

FanGraphs assesses STL’s postseason probability at 90.5 percent. That’s even higher (92.5%) at Baseball Reference. Either way the Cardinals are strengthening their hold on a passport to the playoffs. But they aren’t clear yet.

Here are the factors that have led the Cardinals out of mediocrity and into a prominent position over the last 13 games, dating back to Sept. 8.

➜You Might As Well Jump! OK, Van Halen. Good advice. This is pretty amazing: during their 12-1 bolt the Cardinals have outscored opponents 21-3 in the first inning. They’ve scored first to take the lead in nine of their 12 wins, and have taken care of the three other victories by with comebacks. The Cardinals’ first-inning batting average over the last 13 games is .379 — with a .433 OBP, .690 slug, 1.122 OPS, six doubles and four homers. Here’s another first-inning nugget: the Cards have a .500 average with runners in scoring position during the opening frame.

➜ Follow Me Home: When the Cardinals are in dire straits, we can expect Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill or Nolan Arenado to show the way. During the 12-1 blazer the threesome has combined for 11 homers, six doubles, a triple, 30 RBI and 39 runs. As a trio the guys have collectively performed at a level that’s 39 percent above league average offensively in park-and-league adjusted runs since Sept. 8. We just mentioned the first inning … and the role that quick starts have played in establishing and sustaining the Cards winning streak.

Over the last 13 games Goldschmidt, O’Neill and Arenado have combined to heap a big pile of instant offense. In the first inning they’ve hit .354 with a .424 onbase percentage, .715 slug, three homers, 11 RBI and 12 runs.

Bonus note: since manager Mike Shildt put O’Neill third in the lineup after Goldschmidt and before Arenado and made it a regular 2-3-4 row starting Aug. 27, the Cardinals have the NL’s best record at 17-7.

➜ Time After Time: Yes, as in timely hitting. Time after time — just like Cyndi Lauper said. In winning 12 of 13 the clutchy Cardinals lead the NL with a .321 average and .464 slugging percentage when hitting with runners in scoring position. Two-thirds of their runs scored since Sept. 8 have come during RISP situations. This key factor offensively has elevated the Cardinals to an average of 5.2 runs scored per game since Sept 8, second in the NL to San Francisco’s average of 6.1 runs.

➜ These Arms Of Mine: The sublime Otis Redding. Always. During the last 13 games the Cardinals have a 2.57 ERA, second in the majors. Their run prevention has been downright stingy, with opponents scoring 2.8 per game against St. Louis. The starters have a 2.74 ERA during this stretch, leading the way to …

➜ Reach Out, I’ll Be There: The team’s four top relievers — T.J. McFarland, Luis Garcia, Alex Reyes and Giovanny Gallegos have taken care of closing time, with the Cards bullpen picking up five wins and locking down eight saves in nine opportunities. Let’s focus on Reyes and Gallegos. During the 12-1 splurge Reyes has four wins, a 1.04 ERA and a 35.2 percent strikeout rate in seven appearances covering 8 and ⅔ innings. Gallegos has seven saves in eight tightrope walks — with a 1.17 ERA and 42.8% strikeout rate. That’s how they pitched before the All-Star break.

➜ Crazy Arms: That’s a song by Van Morrison, and I’m using the title because I think Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright are older than Van the Man. During the 12-1 streak the two elders have six starts, a combined 2.72 ERA and have averaged close to seven innings per assignment. The Rotation Foundation.

➜ This Velvet Glove: The Cardinals defense has performed exceptionally well all season, handling the red-hot chili pepper ground balls, chasing down fly balls, and netting line drives. But the St. Louis defense has played at peak-level form in the last two-three weeks, making one golden play after another. This is a big part of run prevention. This is the space shield for a starting rotation that doesn’t notch many strikeouts. For the season the Cardinals lead the majors in Defensive Runs Saved with 84 — 17 more than any other team.

➜ Bottom To The Top: I mean, who doesn’t get inspired by a Lil Boosie song? I chose it here because Dylan Carlson, Edmundo Sosa and Harrison Bader hit in the bottom half of the lineup — but produce top results. During this 12-1 blitz they’ve combined for 30 hits, 10 doubles, four homers, 11 runs, 23 RBI and a .454 average with runners in scoring position. That’s sick. Just a huge part of this team’s improved offense.

➜ Walk A Thin Line: The matured members of Fleetwood Mac would appreciate the story of a wild-child pitching staff that walked on that really wild side. St. Louis pitchers had a walk rate of 11.2 percent through July. Since the start of August that walk rate has dropped to 7.5%. The hurlers are using their solid–gold defense to make plays, and aren’t giving as many free passes away. And that’s been a positive change that’s reflected in a lower ERA, lower WHIP, etc. 

➜ Born To Run: On this last-chance power drive to reach 81-69 on the season, the Cardinals have been especially nimble and alert and opportunistic in their baserunning. We’ve seen them steal runs by advancing extra bases on batted balls in play. We’ve watched them steal 11 bases in 12 attempts. It’s part of the Cards’ resourcefulness that’s made a difference in games. They’re fifth in the majors in net base running gain this season. They’re tied for second in the NL in extra bases taken on batted balls in play. They’re fourth with a stolen-base rate of 79%. Adept baserunning was paramount in the Cardinals’ 2-1 victory at Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Leadoff man Tommy Edman is the leader of the pack when it comes to romping around the bases. If he gets on base, he can find a way to get home.

➜ It’s A Small World After All: And no, I ain’t talking about a Disney park boat ride. I have to grouse a bit, sorry. Sure, this “small ball” approach can get some runs in when the homers aren’t flying. But why must we call it small ball?  I prefer to call it “really smart baseball.”  And really smart baseball is a standard and timeless part of the game. When a hitter hits a grounder to the right side to move the runner to third, that’s really smart baseball. Smart baseball that can lead to an important run in an extremely tight game. That’s Big. Not small.

Anyway … the Cardinals are playing really smart baseball to scratch out a few runs here and there. And that skill has been on display multiple times during this 12-1 streak. For the season the Cardinals rank third in the NL with a productive out percentage of 27.7%. And they’re No. 2 in the league in their success rate in getting a runner in from third with less than out. And when having a chance to hustle for an extra base when there’s a chance to move up or score, the Cardinals have succeeded 138 times while sacrificing only 25 outs — an 84.6% success rate that’s among the best in the majors. This heads-up style of play was the difference in Tuesday’s win at Milwaukee. And it’s been visible during the 12-1 run. The situational hitting and nifty footwork go well together.

➜ Paying The Cost To Be The Boss: Shildt is zinged from this and many other spaces. His list of worries this year could be straight out of a B.B. King blues song. And though Shildt’s postgame Zoom sessions got weird for a while, he didn’t crack under the strain of a difficult and frustrating season. I talked about this earlier this week, but Shildt has done a very good job of reorganizing his lineup and bullpen, making pitching changes (mostly) at the right time, and getting his runners on the move more aggressively to push for runs. He values defense and the Cardinals are excellent defensively.

Shildty is also setting a new record for most chewing gum chomped by a manager in a game over the course of the season. You can criticize this manager but don’t you DARE take away his gum. Also … about Tuesday’s suspenseful 2-1 win. It took a set of big (chewing–gum) balls for Shildt to order an intentional walk of Christian Yelich to load the bases with two out in the ninth. That could have led to a bases-loaded walk to tie the game, or a hit to score the runner from second for a walk-off Milwaukee win. But Gallegos punched out Pablo Reyes and Shildt walked himself out of the fire. Give this man all the chewing gum he wants. He still makes me nervous. I think I need a pack of gum.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com  — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.