Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Sturdy Cardinals’ Bullpen Is Weakening, And Cannot Crack.

BULLPEN ANXIETY! 

Keeping a bullpen together isn’t easy over a full season. The seams can become undone. Bodies come and go. Sore arms are iced down on the IL. In times of urgent need, minor-league call ups are asked to do a job that they may, or may not be, ready for.

We know what the Cardinals must do to make the playoffs.

– Find a winning form and stay there. The win-lose, win-lose, win-lose fluctuations are troublesome. There are only 48 games to go.

– Score more runs. Score a lot more runs. If, indeed, that is even possible. (Probably not.) It might help if this team had, well, you know, a bench. It would help if Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar could do what they’re supposed to do.

– More consistent starting pitching. The old guys can’t stall and be towed into the shop. Newcomer Erick Fedde must pitch like a No. 2 starter or close to it. If Andre Pallante is one of the five best starters on this team, then he needs to be in the rotation. This is no time for payroll politics and giving preferential treatment to, say, Miles Mikolas.

In addition to all of that, I’m monitoring the bullpen. We shouldn’t take the relievers for granted an assume that everything is GREAT … because that isn’t true.

I’m wondering how the spine of this team will hold up. The burden of heavy responsibility carried by this bullpen is immense. A few more breakdowns than usual could change everything … and for the worse.

Here’s some of the stuff that probably has manager Oli Marmol feeling a little restless when it’s time to go to sleep for the night. He’s done a helluva job running this bullpen in 2024, but his biggest challenge remains. How does the manager get this group to the finish line — healthy and strong and dependable?

* St. Louis relievers had a 3.50 ERA before the All-Star break (7th) but are 16th with a 4.34 ERA in the second half.

* After stranding 74 percent of the runners on base in the first half, the ‘pen has stranded only 65 percent of the runners since the All-Star break. The relievers aren’t as adept at clearing trouble from the bases.

* The bullpen has a 73 percent success rate in save opps in the first half … and only a 50% save percentage since the break.

* I’m a believer in the Win Probability Added metric as a barometer to gauge the effectiveness of your bullpen. In the first half the STL bullpen was No. 3 in the majors in WPA. Since the break, their relievers are No. 21 in WPA. Uh-oh.

* The home-run rate against the STL’s baseball fire department has increased since the All-Star break.

* Dudes who were so good in the first half – closer Ryan Helsley, setup man Ryan Fernandez, lefty specialist John King – aren’t as dominant now. The same can be said of the promising rookie reliever Chris Roycroft, who has a second-half ERA of 5.63 and a poor strand rate of 47 percent.

There have been some positive developments as well; JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge got through a tired phase caused by the workload and are snapping with their biting pitches again. And recent trade acquisition Shawn Armstrong looks good in his early days as a Cardinal.

I want to start by focusing on Helsley.

Let’s do a “Before” and “After” … as in before the All-Star break and after the All-Star break. Helsley gave up a run in the ninth inning Tuesday, as Tampa Bay cut the Cardinal lead to 4-3. But Helsley escaped more damage when shortstop Masyn Winn made a terrific play and throw-out to put the Rayd down for good.

Helsley hasn’t been the same lately.

Here are the “before” and “after” stats:

• Earned-run average: 2.36 … 5.40
• Batting average: .211 … .308
• Onbase percentage: .283 … .379
• Slugging percentage: .257 … .500
• Strikeout rate: 27.7% … 24.1%
• Walk rate: 9.8% … 10.3%
• Hard-hit rate: 31.5% … 42.1%
• Barrel rate: 1.8% … 6.9%
• Whiff-swing rate: 35% … 38.6%

As trends go, there’s a lot to dislike about the Hensley profile.

Another reliever to pay closer attention to is Fernandez. The rookie right-hander had a 2.08 ERA and allowed a .277 slugging percentage before the All-Star break. But in six second-half appearances his ERA (7.50) and opponent slugging percentage (.667) have seriously inflated. That’s a concern.

Before the break, opponents had a .573 OPS against Fernandez and struck out 24 percent of the time. Since the break opponents have a .1000 OPS and 20% strikeout rate.

On the plus side, Kittredge hasn’t allowed a run and been nipped for just three hits in six appearances and 5 and ⅔ innings since the All-Star break. And his strikeout rate is trending up. Romero’s ERA has dropped since the break, and his strikeout rate is popping again after Marmol wisely gave him some extra time off to regenerate that fatigued left arm.

Armstrong has only worked against 15 batters since coming over in the deal for Dylan Carlson. But his early showing is encouraging, highlighted by a 40 percent strikeout rate and a .214 opponent batting average.

Righthander Kyle Leahy has been solid when thrown into the fray. I would like to think of Matthew Liberatore as an imposing late-inning enforcer, but the Cardinals still don’t know what to make of him. Maybe they’ll figure something out by 2031 or so.

Bringing an extra reliever in at the deadline was a good idea that never materialized. There could be some regrets over the front-office confidence to go with what they had. Other contending NL teams strengthened their relief capability at the trade deadline. The Cardinals took a half-measure step – with part of the thinking based on the hope that 100 mph reliever Riley O’Brien will reappear after 131 days (and counting) on the Injured List.

The Cardinal bullpen is still the finest and most trustworthy part of this team. But Helsley and the other relievers will be tested, probably to the extreme, over the final weeks that will define the Cardinals. They’ll either be heading to the postseason or heading to the offseason. We can be sure of this much: there have been signs of weakening, and the St. Louis bullpen can’t break. If it cracks, then it’s go-home time for the Cardinals.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.