Bernie’s Redbird Review: As Teammates In St. Louis, Goldschmidt And Arenado Had Some Great Moments But Came Up Short.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Last weekend, the Athletic baseball writer Katie Woo reported the Cardinals are “parting ways” with impending free agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

This is no surprise. Goldschmidt is 37 years old and the 2024 season was the worst of his 14-year big-league career.

Here are the “before” and “after” looks at Goldschmidt’s decline from his cumulative performance level from 2011 through 2023:

• Batting average: .293 … .245
• Onbase percentage: .388 … .302
• Slugging percentage: 519 … .414
• Strikeout rate: 22.3% … 26.5%
• Walk rate: 13.1% … 7.2%
• Onbase+slugging: .908 … .716
• Adjusted onbase+slugging: 142 … 98

Goldy’s drop in adjusted OPS+ tells us all we need to know. The league average OPS+ is 100. And over his first 13 major-league seasons, Goldschmidt put up offense that was 42 percent above the league average. Outstanding. But in 2024, Goldschmidt’s OPS+ was two percent below average – a startling drop of 44 points from his previous career level.

Another vivid indicator of Goldschmidt’s degeneration can be spotted in his all-purpose value metric, Wins Above Replacement. In 2022, his MVP campaign, Goldschmidt was tied for fourth among MLB position players with 6.8 WAR. This season he finished tied for 109th with a meager 1.1 WAR.

This season Goldschmidt completed the final season of a contract that paid him $130 million over the last five years. At his age, Goldschmidt presumably would want to join a contending team that’s capable of winning a pennant or World Series in 2025.

The Cardinals are preparing for a rebuilding phase. It won’t be drastic, but the Redbirds will look to cut payroll and create even more opportunities for their younger pitchers and hitters. It doesn’t make sense for a non-contending team to carry excess payroll mass.

In a different scenario, Goldschmidt might appeal to the Cardinals on a short-term contract at a lower average salary. But he should have more appealing options on the free-agent market and can pick a situation that fits him in the final stages of his career.

There is a chance of a Goldschmidt bounce-back in 2025. I say this for two seasons:

1) Over his final 54 games in 2024, Goldschmidt batted .283 with a .333 onbase percentage and .485 slug for a good .818 OPS. And he also lowered his strikeout rate during that time.

2) Goldschmidt’s 2024 Statcast profile had some legitimate positives. His hard-hit rate of 48.6 percent put him in the top eight percent of regular MLB hitters. He was in the top 18 percent for average exit velocity. He barrelled enough pitches to finish in the top 27 percent of hitters.

That said, Goldschmidt’s strikeout-walk ratio has gone upside down on him. Too many strikeouts. A surprisingly low walk rate. The lapse in plate discipline was a significant factor in Goldschmidt’s total of 474 outs made in 2024. Only 11 big-league hitters made more outs than Goldy this season.

Goldschmidt was brutal when hitting with runners in scoring position this season – batting a sallow .203 with a .280 slugging percentage and a strikeout scourge close to 30 percent. He wasn’t as sure of himself up there with runners in scoring position, taking more called strikes than all but seven hitters in RISP scenarios.

Other than his splendid 2022 MVP splurge, the highlight of Goldschmidt’s career in St. Louis was a barrage of offense in the five-game triumph over the Braves in the 2019 NLDS. In that series Goldschmidt went 9 for 21 (.429) with four doubles, two homers and a 1.383 OPS.

That was his only postseason high point as a Cardinal. After that, in his final 10 postseason games for St. Louis, Goldschmidt went 5 for 39 (.128) with a gory 37 percent strikeout rate. The Cardinals lost nine of the 10 games.

After being acquired from Arizona, Goldy did a lot of things well in his six years with the Cardinals. Across the six seasons this quiet perfectionist led the team in WAR, home runs, RBIs, runs scored, doubles, slugging and OPS – and was second in batting average and onbase percentage.

Still, I think it’s obvious to declare that the Goldy Era was disappointing for the lack of postseason success. Goldschmidt and fellow trade acquisition Nolan Arenado had four seasons as teammates in St. Louis. This exciting pairing gave the Cardinals the best first baseman and third baseman combination in the majors for a couple of years … but not four years. And not in the postseason.

Despite their awards, impressive overall offensive numbers, defense and an elite status within the game, Arenado and Goldschmidt were liabilities in their two postseasons together, 2021 and 2022.

In their three postseason games as teammates – all of which ended in losses to the Dodgers and Phillies – Goldschmidt and Arenado combined for two hits in 22 at-bats for an .091 average. They collectively struck out 28 percent of the timer and went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. I can’t imagine doing any worse than that. The Cardinals scored only four runs in the three defeats.

Goldschmidt is all but officially gone, and the Cardinals may explore the idea of trading Arenado if he wants to disembark to join a contender. Arenado has a no-trade clause, and the Cardinals would have to pick up a significant percentage of the guaranteed money owed to him through 2027. But a trade might make sense for Arenado and the Cardinals. And after finishing first (Goldy) and third (Arenado) in the 2022 National League MVP tabulations, we’re reminded again of how quickly time goes by.

It was cool to have the classy Goldschmidt spend six years of his stellar career in a Cardinal uniform, but I think we all expected more. This franchise heralded for a remarkably rich history of World Series conquests and pennant flags, and as star teammates Goldschmidt and Arenado tried to pick up the torch placed in their hands by Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. We dreamed of watching more triumphant Octobers, but it didn’t happen. The torch flickered out, and the grand  October stage went dark.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted