Bernie’s Redbird Review: At Least I Can Catch Up On My Sleep During Cardinals’ Games.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of watching the Cardinals hit into ground-ball double plays. Actually, it’s tiring just to watch this team. We should all take more naps … just like the team. OK, I’m being a little nasty here. I would like to smile and engage in some Happy Talk banter, but the Cardinals aren’t giving me much to work with.

By now we know that the Cardinals are bad, the first-place Brewers own them in the NL Central, and the National League wild-card contenders are leaving the Redbirds behind. Instead of narrowing, the distance between themselves and teams they’re pursuing is expanding, and looking more ominous by the day.

The season is blowing up and this team is increasingly difficult to watch. The Cardinals are lethargic in too many games. They are easily dispirited. The confidence level depletes quickly during times of hardship and failure. STL’s record when trailing after eight innings this season – 2-54 – is among the worst in the majors. Only five teams have won fewer games than the Cardinals this season when down in the score, going into the ninth.

After losing two of three to the Dodgers to complete a woeful 1-5 week, the fading Cardinals trail the Brewers by 11 games and are five games out of the No. 3 wild-card spot.

Not too long ago the Cards got to within 3 and ½ games of division-leading Milwaukee, were close to chasing down top wild-card seed Atlanta, and had the lead over several other wild-card contenders – New York, San Diego, Arizona and San Francisco.

I’ll give you the details on the stunning reversal of St. Louis fortunes a little later in this piece. But the Cardinals are free-falling, and by now it’s just a matter of waiting to see how far down they’ll be by the end of the season.

The grim particulars:

– The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games, and are 5-11 in August.

– They’re 7-11 since the trade deadline, and 11-17 since the All-Star break.

– Their .393 winning percentage after the All-Star sabbatical is tied for 13th in the National League. Their winning percentage in August (.313) is 14th in the NL and tied for 27th in the majors.

– Traveling in time back to July 10 – the day the St. Louis season began to spiral – the Redbirds have won only 13 of 34 games. The .383 winning percentage during this loathsome stretch ranks last in the NL and 29th in the majors.

– The Cardinals have won only three of their last 11 series, losing six and splitting two.

– The current FanGraphs Playoff Odds reflect the collapse. As of Monday morning the Cards had an 0.7 percent chance of winning the division, a 3.6% shot of pilfering a wild-card spot and a postseason probability that’s down to 4.3%.

You’d like to see the Cardinals summon the stubborn willpower necessary to stack more wins and attain relevancy. But these days, there isn’t much going on to instill hope in the team and a rightfully angry fan base.

DRAMATIC REVERSAL OF FORTUNE: St. Louis has lost an enormous amount of ground in the standings over the last six weeks or so.

After winning on July 8, the Cardinals (48-42) were a season-high six games over .500, trailed first-place Milwaukee by a workable 4 and ½ games, and were seeded in the NL’s No. 2 wild-card spot at only 2 and ½ games below No. 1 Atlanta.

And now? The Brewers own the NL Central with a 98.5 percent chance of winning the division. The top three wild-card bids are held by the Padres (70-55), Diamondbacks (69-56) and Braves (66-58). The Redbirds have been tossed into the sixth position in the wild-card scramble, hoping to stay ahead of the Cubs and Reds.

During the more pleasant time on July 8, the Cardinals were seemingly closing in on the Braves and collectively led the Mets, Padres, Diamondbacks by 13 games in the wild-card standings. (The 13 is what you get when you add up each team’s games behind the Cardinals.)

And now, for the kick in the teeth: since July 9, the Cardinals have lost 41 and ½ games in the standings, collectively, to the Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves, Mets and Giants.

Holy cannoli.

For a while there, the 2024 Cardinals appeared to be on their way to making a postseason return. But now they’ll be trying to avoid sinking with a second consecutive losing record in two full seasons since 1958-1959.

THE ONGOING MALAISE OF 2023-2024: Over the last two seasons the Cardinals are 24 games under .500, and their .462 winning percentage ranks 23rd overall and 12th in the NL. And since the start of last season the Cardinals have a minus 172 run differential that ranks 24th – ahead of only the Angels, Nationals, Marlins, A’s, Rockies and White Sox. Remember when the Cardinals were up there with the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves. Me, too. They’re slumming now.

SHADES OF 2023? Based on run differential, the Cardinals “deserved” record through124 games this season is 55-69. Last season through 124 games, the 2023 Cardinals were 54-70.

JORDAN WALKER: Quick comment for now: unless there’s an injury, he must play in every game every day. What Oli Marmol is doing here – platooning Walker – is  daft. More on this later today, in an upcoming column.

CHEERS FOR ANDRE PALLANTE: The third-year righthander was outstanding in Saturday’s 5-2 win over the Dodgers. He gave the Cardinals seven strong innings, getting mussed for only four hits and two runs while walking two and striking out five.

Pallante has strengthened a problematic weakness. Though he’s a right-handed pitcher, he has struggled to subdue right-handed hitters during his early career. But that’s changing. In his last seven starts – with a better four-seam fastball and more liberal use of his sinker – Pallante has limited RH batters to a .180 average, .240 onbase percentage and .270 slug. And in the last seven starts he’s induced a 51.4 percent ground-ball rate from RH hitters.

Let’s update one of my favorite stats that shows why Pallante should remain in the rotation when Steven Matz and Lance Lynn return (as expected) from the injured list.

Starting-pitcher ERAs since Pallante entered the rotation on May 29, minimum three starts:

• Pallante, 3.75
• Sonny Gray, 4.73
• Lynn, 4.78
• Kyle Gibson, 4.91
• Matthew Liberatore, 4.97
• Miles Mikolas, 5.24
• Erick Fedde, 5.63

I can’t wait to see what manager Marmol (and the front office) will do when the injured starters return.

STL OFFENSE, FREEZING IN AUGUST: While losing six of their last seven games, the Cardinals averaged 2.7 runs, batted .227, had an awful onbase percentage (.283) a low slugging rate (.376) and lagged to a .659 OPS. During this cold spell, the Cards have been held to three runs or fewer five times in seven games. And they’ve scored no more than two runs in four of the seven.

And of course: the Redbirds are 8 for 46 (.167) with runners in scoring position over the last seven games. Tommy Pham, Lars Nootbaar, Brandon Crawford, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Paul Goldschmidt and Brendan Donovan are a combined 2 for 30 (.067) with RISP over the last seven games. Embarrassing.

For the month the Cardinals are 27th in MLB in runs scored and rank no better than 22nd in slugging, onbase percentage, OPS and wRC+.

CARDINALS VS. LEFTY PITCHERS: Still overmatched. The Redbirds are 27th in the majors against left-handed pitchers this season with a wRC+ that puts them 16 percent below league average. They’ve hit .208 vs. lefties the season when batting with runners in scoring position. That ranks 29th. What are those devilish lefties doing, anyway?

* Cardinals are batting .204 with a .333 slug against sliders and sweepers thrown by lefties.

* They’re are hitting .145 with a .226 slug on cutters from lefties..

* They have a .238 average and .338 slug vs. offspeed offerings from lefties.

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT: After getting off to a good start early in season when batting with runners in scoring position, he’s been a mess in RISP situations since the start of May. The numbers are brutal .146 average, .240 OBP, .213 slug, 31% strikeout rate, and four double-play grounders. This month Goldschmidt is 2 for 16 (.125) with six strikeouts in RISP situations. Goldy has done some positive things as of late – a .536 slugging percentage with two doubles and two homers in his last six games – but it’s been a long season for this proud competitor.

WILLSON CONTRERAS: It’s been a challenging month for the Cards catcher. Contreras has a .233 average with a substandard .367 slugging percentage. He’s drawn enough walks for a decent onbase percentage (.333) but has two homers and six RBIs in 60 at-bats.

Thanks as always for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. Here’s the link:

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For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We recorded a new pod on Monday, Aug. 19.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.