Bernie’s Redbird Review: Cardinals Shortstop Masyn Winn Won’t Be The NL Rookie of the Year, But His Best Is Yet To Come.

When the three finalists for 2024 National League Rookie of the Year were announced on Monday, Masyn Winn didn’t make the cut.

The Cardinals’ rookie shortstop wasn’t on the list. Voting members of the Baseball Writers Association gave the most support to corner outfielder Jackson Chourio (Brewers), starting pitcher Paul Skenes (Pirates), and center fielder Jackson Merrill (Padres.)

I have mixed feelings about this. The highly impressive and intimidating Skenes will win the award, and the results won’t be close. Initially a shortstop, Merrill had an outstanding season after San Diego manager Mike Shildt installed him in center field to get his bat in the lineup. Chourio is an exciting talent who shook off a slow start and lived up to his top-tier prospect hype.

That said, Winn did enough to make it to the top three in a more normal year. Other notable candidates that didn’t make it to the final three were third baseman Joey Ortiz (Brewers), super-utility asset Tyler Fitzgerald (Giants) and starting pitcher Shota Iamanaga (Cubs.) Yoshinobu Yamamato (Dodgers) pitched great but was limited to 90 innings because of a triceps injury.

Winn’s candidacy was legitimate. This dynamic 22-year-old established plenty of credentials while playing 150 games for the Cardinals.

There are two different versions of Wins Above Replacement. One by FangGraphs (fWAR) and the other from Baseball Reference (bWAR). The differences come down to how each site evaluates defense. FanGraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and Baseball Reference goes with Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

In FanGraphs WAR, Winn (3.6) came in fourth behind Merrill (5.9), Skenes (4.3) and Chourio (3.9). But the Baseball Reference formula had Skenes (5.9) on top, followed by Winn (4.9), Merrill (4.4) and Chourio (3.8).

A case can be made for Winn over Chourio. Though Chourio played excellent defense for the Brewer in left field and right field, the shortstop position is significantly more important and demanding. But Chourio was superior to Winn offensively and received a lot more attention than Winn. That made a difference in the vote.

But here is a list of Winn’s performance attributes:

1. Not only did Winn lead NL rookie position players in bWAR; he also finished tied for sixth among all NL position player behind Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Matt Chapman (Giants), Francisco Lindor (Mets), Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) and Elly De La Cruz (Reds.) WInn and William Contreras (Brewers) were tied for sixth.

2. Winn led all major-league shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved (14). He led all MLB rookies in Fielding Runs, assists, defensive WAR and defensive range.

3. In addition to leading all major-league rookies in defensive WAR, Winn was No. 2 among big-league rookies in offensive WAR. I don’t know. When you are first in defense and second in offense turned in by all big-league rookies, shouldn’t that make you one of the three Rookie of the Year finalists in the NL?

4. Winn was a National League finalist for the Gold Glove at shortstop but didn’t win the prize. He did, however, receive the more meaningful Fielding Bible Award for being the best defensive shortstop in the majors.

“Winn won his first Fielding Bible Award in his second MLB season,” Sports Info Solutions wrote. “He is the seventh different shortstop to win the Award in the last seven years … Winn was MLB’s premier shortstop when it came to turning double plays. In fact, his 6 Double Play Runs Saved is tied with Andrelton Simmons for the most in a season by a shortstop since Runs Saved was first tracked in 2003.”

5. Winn led all NL rookie position players in Wins Above Average. He led NL rookies in doubles, was second in hits, third in total bases, third in extra-base hits, and tied for fourth in home runs (15.) No NL rookie reached base more than Winn in 2024. No NL rookie had more plate appearances than Winn. His durability provided extra value.

For the season Winn batted .267 with a .314 onbase percentage and .416 slug. His numbers could have been higher but Winn had a quiet final month of the season at the plate.

My friend and “Seeing Red” podcast partner Will Leitch wrote this about Winn at MLB.com: “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now in St. Louis, with a front office transition and talk of trading some of the team’s veterans. But one player it knows it will be building around — and one of the primary reasons the Cardinals did improve by 12 games from 2023 to ‘24 — is Winn, who established himself as the shortstop in St. Louis for many years to come.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.