Bernie’s Redbird Review: Final 2024 Home Stand For The Cardinals, And A Look At Potential Changes.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Last call … for mediocre baseball.

The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals are down to their final home stand of the season. Starting Monday night, the Redbirds have four games against the Pirates, followed by a three-game weekend series vs. the Guardians. Rumor has it that plenty of good seats are available. It’s hard to believe, right?

Here’s a list of players, coaches, the manager and front-office executives that are on my mind as we watch the Cardinals play ball at Busch Stadium for the last time this year.

Their next regular-season game on the home grounds is the 2025 season-opener, scheduled against the Twins, on March 27. Who will be back? I have some thoughts on this. No tippy-toe waste of your time. Only strong opinions.

Bill DeWitt Jr. More and more, I’m being asked this question: are the Cardinals for sale? Does DeWitt want to sell? I’m not privy to any information that goes against the standard “no sale” responses from team president Bill DeWitt III. BD III has been consistent about this. I’m inclined to still believe him, but I could be wrong. I’ve covered four different NFL franchise moves in my career, and in each instance I had doubts – at least initially – about the team leaving. I’ve learned that I can’t predict these things, because we never know what wealthy franchise owners will do.

When DeWitt and his partners purchased the Cardinals from Anheuser-Busch, the serious negotiations stayed deeply underground for months, until word leaked out (strategically) in December, 1995.

Chairman DeWitt is 83. Fans are disillusioned and angry and purchased fewer tickets this season. And among those who bought tickets, we saw an alarming number of no-shows, especially after the All-Star break. The Cardinals require a rebuild, a reset or whatever we choose to call it. The time-consuming process could be painful and stretch out over the next two or three seasons. The process would likely reduce the enthusiasm level of their fans.

And that’s not all. According to multiple media reports in August, the DeWitts are planning to pitch the city of St. Louis, St. Louis County and state of Missouri to assist in the financing of significant stadium renovations to modernize Busch. This figures to be a tough sell … and a tough fight.

If the situation turns contentious – and if the future of the Cardinals’ contract with Bally Sports Midwest remains unclear – it’s hardly irresponsible to wonder about DeWitt’s desire to go through so much wrangling and anxiety. The Cardinals would be easy to sell. The profits would be immense.

But until the DeWitts say or indicate otherwise, there’s no concrete reason to assume this franchise will go on the market. Bill DeWitt Jr. has been a terrific, accomplished owner through most of his 29 seasons at the top.

I recognize and applaud the tremendous success by the Cardinals under DeWitt’s guidance. But nothing lasts forever, and teams that don’t change and evolve tend to fall behind and relinquish the qualities that made them so great for so long.

As I’ve said multiple times: DeWitt doesn’t have to sell the team – but he must fix the team. And also deal with the push for help in stadium renovations, and the local-TV murkiness. None of these things are simple matters.

John Mozeliak: the president of baseball operations is under contract through the end of the 2025 season. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Cardinals rank 10th in the majors with a .526 winning percentage. But they’ve won only four postseason games over the previous seven seasons. And since the start of last season, the Cardinals have the worst winning percentage (.466) among the five NL Central teams, and only three NL teams have won fewer games. The Cardinals have imploded, with problems hitting every part of their outdated baseball model. Massive changes are needed, modernization is absolutely necessary, and at this stage of his career Mozeliak is the wrong person to be in charge of the project.

If Mozeliak returns at full power as head of the baseball operations in 2025, the fans will revolt. Ticket sales would drop. Franchise credibility will continue to erode.
The team’s widespread popularity will continue to wane.

Even if “Mo” moves into the background for his final season, that won’t satisfy fans who are firm in their collective belief that he’s the team’s biggest problem. It would be best for Mozeliak to make a clean break after the season. That way a new regime can get underway with its extremely important business without any clouds or mistrust hovering over the baseball department. That’s possible, but I’m not sure what to expect.

Chaim Bloom: Any consideration of using 2025 as a transitional hand-off year from Mozeliak to his likely successor is pretty absurd. If Bloom was brought here as a consultant to study every aspect of the baseball operation in 2024, surely he now understands the scope of the job and the changes that must be made. That was made obvious by the retirement of longtime director of player development Gary LaRocque. If Bloom isn’t ready to move into the big chair after investing an entire season to formulate a “Save the Cardinals” plan … then why would he be considered the best person for the job?

How many current heads of MLB team baseball operations needed a two-season, work-study visa before ascending to the No. 1 spot? When these execs are hired to run the baseball ops, they move in right away and get real busy. They don’t need two years to prep for the job. And Bloom has been the top baseball executive for two teams. He’s widely respected in the industry. He isn’t some rookie-level junior executive.

If Bloom stays in Mozeliak’s shadow for another year, the promise of a 2026 takeover won’t appease anyone that is already turned off by the state of the Cardinals. Fans will remain suspicious about DeWitt’s commitment to change … and to winning.

Oli Marmol: I think Marmol is better than he gets credit for and he’s certainly not the reason why the Cardinals will miss the postseason for a second consecutive season. I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind on that, and I’m not here to debate the strengths and weaknesses of his managing ability. By now, people already have made up their minds, and Marmol appears to be quite unpopular with the red-clad populace.

When we talk about Marmol’s future, it should be centered on what’s best for the franchise. It isn’t about being fair or unfair, or doing what’s best for Marmol. And if there is a case for keeping Marmol, his many critics won’t listen, anyway. Making a case to a jury that’s already reached a “guilty” verdict – even before being sent to deliberate – is a guaranteed defeat for Marmol’s defense team.

If Mozeliak remains in charge, it won’t be good for Marmol. Oh, Marmol would probably have a better chance of keeping his job with Mozeliak calling the shots. But as long as Mozeliak is running things, the MO-MARMOL partnership will throttle a true reset. Marmol is so closely aligned with Mozeliak, he can’t avoid the animosity that’s directed at Mozeliak – because a lot of that animosity is also channeled at Marmol.

Oli got the job as a direct result of the feud that obliterated the relationship between Mozeliak and former manager Mike Shildt. Do you think another MLB team would have hired Marmol before the 2022 season? The obvious answer is no. Do you think another MLB team would hire Marmol as manager for 2025 if the Cardinals sack him after this season? That’s also a no.

Here’s the reality: being unconditionally viewed as MO’s guy – handpicked to replace Shildt – is toxic for Marmol. As a business and fan-relations consideration, it would be calamitous to have the Mozeliak-Marmol combination in place for 2025.

Bloom-Marmol: OK, so what happens if Bloom takes over following the season? Surely he would go hire his own manager, right? I don’t know. But even if Bloom sincerely believes Marmol is the right man for the gig, it won’t matter in the court of public opinion.

If retaining Marmol is Bloom’s first decision, then Bloom would be off to a rocky start with Cardinals fans who are taking notes and wondering if Bloom will be a driving force for change … or more of the same.

Cardinals fans will be looking for evidence that gives them a reason to believe the new baseball boss isn’t the same as the old baseball boss. And if Bloom keeps Mozeliak’s manager, then fans will be very slow to come around on Bloom and trust him. Bloom’s approval ratings would immediately plummet. And that’s an abysmal way to launch a new regime.

Here’s a final point: the Cardinals would owe Marmol two years of salary if they sack him after the season. What if DeWitt is opposed to paying a manager for not managing … while also paying the new manager? If Bloom thinks it’s best to go get a new manager, then he should be allowed to do so. But DeWitt could have final say on the future of the manager’s office.

Michael Girsch: Unless Girsch has another opportunity that compels him to move, he’ll likely be around as Mozeliak’s top assistant. Girsch, the general manager, does a lot of the advance work for potential moves, and contract negotiations. If Mozeliak moves to more of a background role in 2025, I don’t know what this would mean for Girsch – simply because we don’t know how Bloom feels about Girsch. But if DeWitt wants Bloom to inherit Mozeliak’s team of advisors … Well, I’d have to wonder why Bloom wants this job. Again, the key word here is CHANGE.

Coaching staff: update the resumes, men. There is no reason to retain any of the batting coaches. I’m undecided on pitching coach Dusty Blake, who lacks the resources that other MLB pitching coaches can reach for. Willie McGee is untouchable and is really good at coaching baserunning, and helping outfielders on the finer points of defense. Third base coach Pop Warner and first base coach Stubby Clapp have been around a long time.

If the Cardinals are trying to rebrand with a message of hope – change is here! – they’ll destroy the premise by bringing too many of the same people back in 2025. How the heck does the idea of “change” mean anything if there are no changes other than sacking a hitting coach or two? The Cardinals have to be more ambitious in putting together a coaching staff. Instead of hiring and promoting company men from inside the organization, the Cardinals must strive to hire the best baseball minds who are out there and willing to listen to a job offer. This enterprise needs new voices, new ideas, and new ways to find solutions to problem. The baseball operation also needs increased financial resources to update a moldy infrastructure.

Paul Goldschmidt: He’s 37, having the worst season of career (by far) and a late hot streak and positive set of Statcast metrics aren’t convincing enough to justify bringing Goldy back for another year or two. Goldschmidt, a pending free agent, may have his own ideas about where he wants to be in 2025 – maybe with a team that has a much better chance of winning than the Cardinals?

Nolan Arenado: He’ll be 34 early next season and already is in the trap of age-related decline, sitting with a below-average OPS+ for the first time his age-22 rookie season in 2013. Over the last three seasons his slugging percentage went from .533 in 2022, to .459 last year, to .393 this season.

Arenado’s contract is complicated, but here’s about the best I can do, at least for now: Arenado is due $25.6 million next season, $20.6 million in 2026, and then $15 million in 2027. So that’s around $60 million guaranteed. Good luck trying to offload that contract, and Arenado has a no-trade clause. The Cardinals wouldn’t have much of a chance to move Arenado unless they are willing to pay a large percentage of that $60 million.

Miles Mikolas: The righthander, 36, has a guaranteed payroll salary of $16.7 million for next season. Over the last two seasons, among 96 MLB starting pitchers that have thrown at least 200 innings, Mikolas ranks 93rd in ERA (5.10), 91st in strikeout rate (16.4%) and last in swing-miss rate (7.1%). The Cardinals could eat the money owed to Mikolas, move on, and freshen the rotation. I don’t think they’ll do that. What we can expect to see is Mozeliak (or someone else) pointing to the value in the large supply of innings Mikolas provides. And his Fielding Independent ERA over the last two seasons (4.25) ranks 62nd. That FIP will give the Cardinals a platform to talk about poor Miles and his lousy batted-ball luck.

I think there are teams out there that would welcome an innings-devouring starter for the back of the rotation, and since the start of last season Mikolas ranks 12th for most innings pitched. So there could be a market for him – but not at full salary. The Cardinals would have to be willing to digest 40 to 50 percent of his 2025 salary to make a deal work. And they wouldn’t receive much in return. This would be reminiscent of the trades that sent outfielder Dexter Fowler to the Angels and starting pitcher Mike Leake to the Mariners.

Matt Carpenter + Lance Lynn: I assume this will be it – at least in St. Louis – for the two respected graybeards who have played a combined 19 years for the Cardinals over their two stints. Carpenter turns 39 just after Thanksgiving and Lynn reaches his 38th birthday in late May of next season. Though Lynn’s role was more extensive, both men won World Series rings for being a part of the 2011 squad – the most recent won by the franchise. I hope they’ll receive a warm sendoff this week by the fans, even before a sparse crowd.

ONE MORE THING BEFORE I GO

Here’s ESPN’s Buster Olney, from his insider story about executives and managers with the most at stake over the final weeks of the season. Postseason considerations are part of this, but that doesn’t apply to the 2024 Cardinals.

“John Mozeliak has run the St. Louis Cardinals’ baseball operations since after the 2007 season. Under his guidance, the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011 and played for a championship in 2013. But they’ve struggled in recent seasons, and Mozeliak is nearing the end of his current contract in 2025.

“Chaim Bloom, formerly the Red Sox general manager, joined the Cardinals’ front office this year and is widely seen by his front office peers as the inevitable choice to take over whenever Mozeliak moves on.

“Even after being fired in Boston, Bloom has earned praise from his peers for restocking Boston’s farm system and modernizing the way the Red Sox evaluated and developed players.

“Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol, meanwhile, is under contract through the 2026 season, after receiving an extension before this season started. If the Cardinals wanted to hire another manager, they’d have to pay off Marmol’s deal. ‘That’s not an organization that likes to pay people for not working,’ said one rival official.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.