Bernie’s Redbird Review: Grading Every Area Of The Cardinals At The All-Star Break.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW 

The Cardinals sputtered into the All-Star break by losing four of six games to the Royals and Cubs at Busch Stadium. After six weeks of watching the Redbirds play winning baseball, their late downturn was disappointing.

This does not mean the Cardinals have reverted to their former ways. Thirty-nine games into the season they were 15-24 for a .385 winning percentage that ranked 25th overall and 13th in the National League. They were submerged. They were in trouble. They were failing to erase the stigma of 2023.

It was May 11, 2024. Early, yes. The Cardinals had 123 games left on their schedule. But it felt a lot later than that because the Cardinals seemed to be replaying 2023. At that point the franchise had a woeful .428 winning percentage in the 201 regular-season games played since the start of the 2023 campaign. The only MLB teams that had lost more games over that time were the A’s, Rockies, White Sox and Royals.

Starting May 12, the Cardinals began the recovery process and reclaimed their 2024 season. Even with the dissatisfying 2-4 homestand that led them into the All-Star holiday, the Cardinals were 35-22 in their last 67 games for a .614 winning percentage that topped the NL and was third overall since Mother’s Day.

The “first half” was a success for a simple reason: the Cardinals saved their season. This team couldn’t go back in time and start over and come up with a better record than 15-24 through the first 39 games. The Cardinals couldn’t change the immediate past; that was impossible. But they could, however, do something about the immediate future. At 15-24, there were two ways to go: (1) continue to wither and fade away, or (2) start winning enough games and series to turn the season around and give themselves a shot at making the playoffs.

The Cardinals went the right way. They moved up. After losing eight of their first 13 series of the season – including four in a row before reversing course – the Cardinals have gone 11-4-3 in their last 18 series. And as they head to vacation, the Cardinals are in the No. 2 wild-card spot and have trimmed first-place Milwaukee’s lead to 4 and ½ games in the NL Central.

The Cardinals fought their way back to relevancy. They’re now in position to attack on two fronts: the division and the wild-card . Considering how pathetic the Cards were on May 11, that qualifies as a success.

That said, their situation is precarious. The Cardinals lean too heavily on their bullpen. The offense is below average and erratic. The depth is thin. The starting pitching has been scorched in July. They play a large number of games decided by one or two runs, and have done well with them. They have one of the best records in the majors (28-21, .571) in outcomes that have a margin of two runs or fewer.

But that line between winning and losing such games is dangerously thin, and the schedule takes a hard turn after the All-Star break. The July 30 trade deadline looms as a tipping-point intersection for the Cardinals and the gaggle of NL contenders.

We have a few days to take a “what’s next” look at the Cardinals to get a sense of how they shape up in advance of their final 66 regular-season games.

As for today’s exercise, it’s time to look back at the first 96 games. I’ll fill in my report card to assess every area of the team at the break.

Note: Rankings used here are based on the Cardinals’ place among the 30 teams in each category. The wRC+ reference is for park-and-league adjusted runs created, and 100 is the average. FIP stands for fielding-independent ERA, which is largely based on outcomes pitchers have the most control over: WAR is wins above replacement level. WPA, which is Win Probability Added, measures the team’s likely winning percentage based on the importance of the game situation. WPA in close games has more value than WPA in blowouts.

OVERALL PITCHING

ERA: 4.07, 17th
FIP: 3.94, 13th
Strikeout rate: 21.7%, 23rd
Walk rate: 7.5%, 7th
HRs per 9 innings: 1.09, 14th
WPA: 15th
WAR: 8.5, 15th

GRADE: C+. All in all, not bad – and certainly a substantial improvement from last season’s disaster. (But that’s an awfully low bar to clear.) Except for the bullpen – which I’ll get to – nothing is particularly special.

STARTING PITCHING

ERA: 4.44, 21st
FIP: 4.07, 15th
Quality Starts: 36, tied for 16th
Strikeout rate: 21.7%, 17th
Walk rate: 7.2%, 10th
HRs per 9 innings: 1.19, 14th
WPA: 24th
WAR: 6.3, 19th

GRADE: C-minus: Last season the Cardinals had a 5.08 ERA that was the highest (as in worst) by the franchise in a full season since 1900. It was hideously and historically bad by any measure. So yeah, the 2024 Cardinals are in much better shape with their starting pitching. That is duly noted – and appreciated. But I prefer to base the grade at the All-Star break on how the 2024 Cardinals are doing relative to the other 29 teams. When management goes out and signs three free-agent starters, the expectations are set at a different height.

If anything the C minus grade is a little generous. I was tempted to go with a D+. Their 4.44 starting-pitching ERA ranks 11th among 15 NL teams and is the worst in the NL Central behind the Pirates (3.52), Cubs (3.67), Reds (4.08) and Brewers (4.20). I mean, how can the Brewers have a better rotation ERA than the Cardinals after trading ace Corbin Burnes and losing so many starters — Brandon Woodruff, Robert Gasser, Wade Miley, DL Hall, Joe Ross, etc. — to injuries?

The revamped rotation is averaging 5.3 innings per start, which is league average. That’s only a tick better than last year’s average of 5.2 IP per outing. I like the rotation. It’s a competitive rotation. That’s good. But I don’t love this rotation. And I’m not sure what to expect over the final two-plus months. There’s an underlying flimsiness there that bothers me. And when Andre Pallante has the team’s best starting-pitcher ERA in July … well … that’s a positive to see him doing a nice job in the 5th spot, but he shouldn’t be at the top of the July ERA leaderboard. (Insert the obligatory and annoying small-sample warning here.)

Another negative with this starting-pitching bloc is the relatively poor performance when working with runners in scoring position. In RISP situations Cards starters have yielded the sixth-highest slugging percentage (.425) and are tied for the most home runs allowed (20.)

Finally … the starting pitching isn’t trending well as of late. The Cardinals’ 6.13 rotation ERA for July ranks 28th. As for the individuals, Kyle Gibson has a 7.50 ERA in his last four starts, Miles Mikolas has a 6.75 ERA in his last five starts, Lance Lynn has a 6.43 ERA in his last seven starts, and Sonny Gray has a 6.06 ERA in his last three. Is this just a phase or a sign of real trouble? To be determined.

THE BULLPEN

ERA: 3.50, 7th
FIP: 3.76, 9th
Save Rate: 73%, 4th
Strikeout rate: 21.7%, 25th
Walk rate: 7.8%, 3rd
HRs per 9 innings: 0.94, 10th
WPA: 3rd
WAR: 6.3, 12th

GRADE: A minus. The Cardinals have lost only two games all season when leading through seven innings and are 44-0 when leading through eight innings. Led by All-Star closer Ryan Helsley’s 32 saves, the Redbirds lead major-league bullpens in saves (35) and holds (74) and have the fourth-lowest number of blown saves. More than any factor, this bullpen is the No. 1 reason why the Cardinals have such a strong record in close games. There are only two negatives: the 21.7% strikeout rate is surprisingly low. And the Cardinals are 21st in the percentage (36%) of inherited runners scored. But that’s nitpicky.

In the first six innings of games this season the Cardinals have a 4.52 ERA (24th) and have been outscored by 52 runs. But from the start of the seventh inning through the end of the game, STL has a 3.13 ERA (4th) and has outscored opponents by 17 runs.

One other thing that must be mentioned because it reinforces the quality performance of the St. Louis relievers: The Cardinals’ bullpen has thrown the most high-leverage innings than any in ‘pen in the National League. If we combine high-leverage and medium-leverage innings the Cardinals rank third in MLB. This bullpen is not only very busy – but the STL relievers have also pitched in more high-pressure, high-stress innings than all but one team, Tampa Bay. And they’re just about tied for most innings thrown in high-stress, high-pressure scenarios. That makes the St. Louis bullpen even more impressive.

THE OFFENSE

Runs per game: 4.15, tied for 21st
Batting average: .245, 13th
Onbase percentage: .310, 18th
Slugging percentage: .384, 20th
OPS: .694, 19th
Isolated Power: .139, 25th
Home runs per game: 0.98, 25th
Extra base hits: 23rd
wRC+: 98, which ranks 16th
Adjusted OPS: 96, which ranks 16th
Avg. with runners in scoring position: .228, 27th.
Slugging with RISP: .340, 29th
OPS with RISP: .639, 29th
WPA: 13th
WAR: 17th

GRADE: D. Since the Cardinals began to turn their season around on May 12, the offense has averaged an improved 4.6 runs per game. And their hitters have done better in batting average (3rd), slugging (11th), wRC+ (12th), OBP (13th) and OBP (13th.)

The goal here is to evaluate the offensive showing over the first 96 games as a whole. And this offense is a liability in too many games. There are reasons for it, sure. A combination of things. Injuries to Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman and Willson Contreras. The struggles of aging veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The severe lack of plate discipline by Nolan Gorman. The stunning flame-out of second-year outfielder Jordan Walker. But a straight-up evaluation can’t be cluttered by excuses.

We’re looking at the entire body of work. And foundationally the Cardinals are in an unfavorable position; their collection of hitters go into the break ranked 26th in hard-hit rate, 26th in average exit velocity and 27th in barrel-rate percentage.

The Cardinals were fortunate to have three of their younger hitters – Brendan Donovan, Alex Burleson and Masyn Winn – break out in a way that’s exceeding expectations. And though he missed six weeks with a fractured forearm, Contreras has put up exceptional numbers so far.

The Cardinals have scored three runs or fewer in 43 games and are 12-31 (.279) when it happens. When the Cards score under the overall MLB average in runs per team in a game (4.39), they’re 20-37 (.351). The Cardinals thrive when they score at least five runs in a game, going 30-9. But they don’t do that enough. St. Louis pitchers are 23rd in run support provided by this offense. Only two MLB teams have stranded more runners on base than the Cardinals. And only six teams have a worse percentage of converting the percentage of base runners into runs scored.

THE DEFENSE

Defensive Runs Saved: 15, which ranks 13th overall
Outs Above Average: 16th
Fielding Runs Value: 7th
Double Plays Completed: 97, ranked 1st
Runs Saved On Double Plays: ranked 1st
Range Rating: 3rd
Good Fielding Plays Above Average: 11th

GRADE: A minus. First, a couple of negatives: (1) the Cardinals went through a sloppy stretch of making errors and allowing too many unearned runs, and (2) the ineffective policing against opponents trying to steal bases. The Cardinals rank 29th in stolen base runs saved above average, Their pitchers and catchers have nabbed only 14.3 percent of runners trying to steal. Ivan Herrera was burned for 41 steals in 44 attempts. Contreras has caught only three of 25 stealers. But rookie catcher Pedro Pages is doing very well by MLB standards, throwing out 26.4 percent of runners attempting to swipe a base.

Now that I’ve discussed the weaker points of the Cards defense, let’s turn to some positives. The Cardinals have saved a bunch of runs through the combination of a high ground-ball rate (4th in MLB) and quick, efficient fielders. Compared to last season’s below-average team defense, the 2024 Cardinals have made gains defensively at shortstop, all three outfield positions, and first base. They’re about the same at second base, third base and right field.

Masyn Winn leads major-league shortstops in defensive runs saved, and Michael Siani ranks second in the majors in runs saved among center fielders.

STL’s defensive efficiency rating tells us a lot. Last season the Cardinals converted balls in play into outs at a rate of .670 percent. That was the worst rate by the franchise in a season since 1930. This year the Cardinals have improved by 22 percent, with their defensive efficiency rating up to .692.

Manager Oli Marmol vowed to improve his team’s defense in 2024, made it a priority, and his initiative is paying off.

THE BASERUNNING

FanGraphs BsR metric: 12th
Extra bases taken: 2nd
Advancing from 1st to 3rd: 9th
Scoring from 1st on a double: 4th
Scoring from 2nd on a single: 13th
Stolen bases: 56, 19th
Stolen-base success rate: 77.8%, 18th

GRADE: B+. The Cardinals aren’t an aggressive or skillful stolen-base team. That doesn’t bother me as much as it may bother you. I appreciate the way they run the bases in general. They’re smart and opportunistic and make sound decisions. That’s why they have so much success in picking up extra bases.The adept baserunning is part of an improved small-ball capability; that’s important for a team that plays so many tight games. I’d like to see them reduce their number of outs made on the bases after MLB returns to action after the All-Star break. The Cardinals are about middle of the pack in this area and can do better.

MANAGER + COACHES 

GRADE: B+. Has Marmol and his coaching staff squeezed as much as they can out of this roster? I believe they have. It’s close. I’m sure some (many?) of you disagree, and that’s cool. But I don’t see how a manager can run a bullpen better than Marmol has this season. And that’s supported by the facts. The staff has cleaned up the defense, baserunning and the small-ball stuff. That matters. And to remedy a problematic offense, Marmol hasn’t hesitated to move established, veteran players down in the lineup (Arenado and Goldschmidt) and give less experienced hitters a chance to take over at the prime spots. (Winn, Donovan, Burleson, etc.)

What else would you want him to do? After Jordan Walker’s good rookie season, there was no reason whatsoever to anticipate such a sudden fall. The Cardinals have given Walker a smart plan to improve his hitting, and it’s up to the player to implement it. Nolan Gorman had a .478 slugging percentage last season and seemed to be on his way to stardom, but his collapsing plate discipline is self defeating. He receives plenty of coaching, but a coach or manager can’t stand in the batter’s box for him. And I don’t think we can blame Marmol for the age-related declines of Goldschmidt and Arenado.

We tend to overreact when a pitching-change decision doesn’t work, or when the manager gives a day off to a player who is performing well. But Marmol is following the Tony LaRussa principle of doing what you can to keep players fresh so they’ll have plenty of petrol left in the tank late in the season. (Was TLR an idiot? Umm, no.) This team competes hard, and it’s easy to see that the players respect and like Marmol. He kept the Cardinals together at the most tumultuous time of the season and prevented the team from capsizing.

THE FRONT OFFICE

I’m holding off on the front-office grade. Why? Because the activity between now and the July 30 trading deadline will be hugely important. But John Mozeliak and associates did a solid job of bolstering the rotation, reordering the bullpen and staying with Marmol instead of throwing him to the wolfpack to score cheap points. I respect that. I also respect the the front office for adding Chaim Bloom as an advisor. He’s helped. But Bloom isn’t here unless Mozeliak made the move.

If you insist on me giving an in-progress grade, I’ll go with a C+. That seems about right because the Cardinals are an above-average team based on their 50-46 winning percentage that’s tied for 12th in the majors. This is obviously a better team than the messy outfit that ruined our baseball summer in 2023. But this isn’t a great team (as we all know), and problems remain. Some fine fixer-upper work has put the Cardinals in a better condition, and it’s up to the front office to complete the home improvements. But if the 2024 Cardinals fail to make the playoffs – which is always the first step – then the St. Louis front office will endure a miserable, mean-season kind of October. And ticket sales for 2025 may take a hit. The stakes are high.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.