THE REDBIRD REVIEW
In recording the new “Seeing Red” podcast on Monday morning with my friend Will Leitch, we talked about the best way for the Cardinals to push their way into the 2024 postseason.
This is hardly a novel thought, but we agreed on this: the Milwaukee Brewers (62-49) seem vulnerable. And rather slug it out with four or five wild-card contenders, the Redbirds (57-51) have a more direct route to the top of the NL Central.
For the Cardinals, a hostile takeover of the NL Central would mean erasing a 5 and ½ game deficit. It would mean lifting themselves out of an aggravating, uninspiring rut to play really good all-around ball over the final 50 regular–season games. It would mean winning a higher percentage of their home games. It would mean an improvement of their record (26-31) against winning team.
It would mean surviving a menacing schedule that can knock them out of 2024. It would mean winning at least four of their six remaining games against Milwaukee. And even if the Cardinals win all six (or even five) games from the Brewers, it won’t matter unless the Birds can also win a healthy share of games against their other remaining opponents.
The Cardinals would require some outside help; maybe some other contenders will fall down and make it a little easier for St. Louis. But back to the Brewers: will they cooperate by collapsing and giving the Cardinals a shot to steal the division? Doubtful, but I can’t entirely rule it out.
Through Sunday, the Brewers are 10-14 in their last 24 games and have won just two of their previous nine series, with one split in there for a 2-6-1 ledger. The Brewers had four series at home in July and lost all of them to the Pirates, Nationals, Marlins and Braves. The Crew is still trying to glue their starting rotation together, and will have to endure the indefinite loss of their best hitter, Christian Yelich. I have a load of respect for the Brewers, but they have a losing record (18-19) since June 20.
If the Brewers continue to slip and slide, do the Cardinals have enough quality to pull off a comeback and finish first? Here’s what I’m thinking: going forward, this capture-the-division plan is more about how the Cardinals play. We can sit here every single day and hope for a Milwaukee loss, but the defeats will amount to nothing if the Cardinals continue to loiter and lollygag and waste precious time.
Given STL’s myriad of disturbing trends, problems and difficulty of schedule, I’m skeptical of their chances of snatching the cheese away from that proud team in Wisconsin. I trust the Brewers to compete consistently harder than the Cardinals. I trust the Brewers to bring a higher energy level to the field of play each day.
As theories go, does this STL-overtake-Milwaukee scenario make sense?
Maybe so.
As of 3 p.m. Monday, Fangraphs posted the Cardinals with a 12 percent probability of winning the division … and gave the Redbirds an 8.4 percent shot of getting a wild-card passport.
The Cardinals and Brewers will play each other six more times, so St. Louis has an opportunity to make a move. But of course, the Brewers have owned the season series so far, winning six of seven games from the Redbirds.
And if we’re still going to base our view of the respective teams on the entire season of performance through Sunday, the St. Louis would appear to be at a disadvantage.
Some overall rankings for your contemplation:
- Runs scored per game: Crew 10th … Cards 22nd
- Runs allowed per game: Crew 6th … Cards 20th
- Earned-run average: Crew 7th … Cards 18th
- Save percentage: Crew 3rd … Cards 6th
- Defensive Runs Saved: Crew 4th … Cards 10th
- Outs Above Average: Crew 5th, … Cards 20th
- Stolen bases: Crew 3rd … Cards 22nd
The rivals are virtually even in starting-pitching ERA for the season. The Brewers aren’t hitting for as much power these days, and but still have a slugging percentage that’s 12 points higher than the Cardinal slug .
And there’s the matter of the run differential.
The Brewers are No. 7 in the majors at plus 79.
The Cardinals are a miserable 22nd at minus 42.
Based on run differential, the Brewers should have a record of 64-47 for a .576 winning percentage. The Cardinals should be 52-60 for a .464 win percentage.
As time goes by, the Cardinals more closely resemble a 52-60 team than a 57-55 team. That’s my perception, anyway. But they still have time to change the outside view of who they are.
According to Clay Davenport’s projection model it will take 88 wins to finish first in the NL Central. If that holds up, the Cardinals must go 31-19 in their final 50 games to reach 88 victories.
The Fangraphs projections give Milwaukee a 26-25 record in its remaining 51 games – and the Cardinals a 25-25 mark in their final 50. So yes, in that context the Brewers may not be much better than the Cardinals. In fact, since June 20, the Cardinals have a slightly better record (21-18) than the Brewers (19-18). So you can see a lane there for the Cardinals.
This is also true: the Cardinals keep stumbling and wandering off when they have the chance to catch up. They were only 3 and ½ games behind the Brewers on July 13 … only to tumble to seven games out by July 29.
Now here are the Cardinals again, having reducing the deficit to 5 and ½ games going into Monday. But will this be followed by yet another spin into reverse? You can’t track the Brewers down if your team makes progress, only to squander the gains made on the Brewers by blundering and stalling.
The Cardinals can’t be trusted. That’s the bottom line. They can change my mind, yes. But the only way to do that is to change the way they’ve been hitting, pitching and playing. And to do it over and over again.
I want to see a tight race, and that requires a run of sustained success by the Cardinals. I just don’t know if they’re up to it. After going 33-18 from May 12 through July 8 in their best and most invigorating stretch of the season, the Cardinals have tapered off to 9-13 in their last 22 games.
Here’s another way to frame the view: are the Cardinals the team that went 33-18 during their 41-game comeback advance? Or are they the team that has a 24-37 record in their other games? Does one hot streak define them? Or was that just a tease? The Cardinals must overcome their poor run differential, a lethargic offense, and the steady increase in runs scored against them.
Do the boys have what it takes to generate another dramatic charge? Do they have the horses to gallop into full speed and sprint into the lead? Personally, I don’t see it or feel it right now. But I sure as heck will keep watching every game to find out.
Thanks (as always) for reading …
— Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
