Bernie’s Redbird Review: If The Cardinals Have Any Chance To Romp Into A Playoff Spot, They Better Start Now. It’s Getting Late.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The news of the day: the Cardinals promoted Jordan Walker from Triple A Memphis and made roster space by placing Matt Carpenter (lower back) on the Injured List. Walker is with the Cardinals in Cincinnati for the start of a three-game series.

I’ll have much more on the Walker promotion later this afternoon in a separate column. But with Walker showing forceful improvement at Triple A Memphis, this logical move made sense. Perhaps Walker can ignite a frustratingly inconsistent offense that is (a) short on right-handed hitters, and (b) absurdly short on right-handed hitters who play the outfield.

Now, let’s review other matters …

STATING THE OBVIOUS: The Cardinals need to pick up the pace. Fast. Furious. Starting now. Their 33-18 hot streak came to an end after their three-game sweep at Washington in a series that concluded July 8. The Cardinals were rained out the next day, then returned to the field on July 10 by losing a doubleheader at home to the Royals. The Cards have been spinning in circles.

Since resuming play July 10, the Redbirds are 12-16 for a .429 winning percentage that’s tied for 12th in the National League and tied for 23rd overall since that day. Their 12-16 mark is slightly worse than the Rockies (12-15) and the .429 winning percentage is the same as the Marlins. And that 12-16 ledger is the poorest in the NL Central since the Cardinals turned cold.

Here’s one way to look at it: the Cardinals are fortunate to be 1 and ½ games out of a wild-card spot as they open their three-game series in Cincinnati.

Here’s the other, less sunshiny-day way to look at it: NL teams that St. Louis must catch have been piling up the wins and creating considerable distance between themselves and the dropping-in-altitude Redbirds. Only 44 games to go on their regular-season schedule. It’s getting late, fellers.

Records since July 10 …

• Diamondbacks, 21-6, .778
• Padres, 17-7, .708
• Mets, 16-12, .571
• Giants, 16-12, .571

The rise of other contenders has edited the wild-card outlook, with the Diamondbacks and Padres pulling away from St. Louis.

As of Monday morning, the Redbirds were 5 and ½ games behind both Arizona and San Diego in the wild-card pursuit. It used to be the other way around, with the Cardinals sitting above both NL West clubs in the wild-card tabulations.

Here’s how the wild-card derby looked at the end of the play on July 9:

– Atlanta, No. 1 wild card, 3 games ahead of the Cards.

– St. Louis, No. 2 wild card – 1 and ½ games in front of No. 3 San Diego.

– The Cardinals were also three games ahead of the Mets, four games above the Diamondbacks and four games clear of the Giants.

The Cardinals still have a shot of overtaking the Braves, who lead them by 1 and ½ games in the bid for the No. 3 wild card. And St. Louis is one game short of the Mets, who are fourth among wild-card contenders.

Going into the new week, the Giants (61-59) are now even with the Cardinals after winning 12 of their last 16 games. And don’t overlook the Cubs, who are just 1 and ½ games away from STL. Cardinals. The Reds have drawn closer, trailing the Cards by a workable three games. The slumping Pirates aren’t that far behind, trailing the Cardinals by 3 and ½.

As we can see, the Cardinals have lost an immense amount of ground in the wild–card jockeying over their last 28 games. They’ve gotten no closer to the first-place Brewers in the

Cincinnati isn’t exactly a riverboat cruise. After stopping there, the Cardinals face a killer stretch of schedule, playing the Dodgers (home), Brewers (home), Twins (road), Padres (home), Yankees (road), Brewers (road) and Mariners (home.)

Considering the way the Cardinals are trending offensively, in starting pitching, and the bullpen – what gives you faith that they can jump ahead of better teams, hold off similar teams, and vault into the postseason?

According to Monday’s Playoff Odds Report at Fangraphs, the Cardinals have a 14.1 percent probability of qualifying for the postseason.

That gives them less of a chance than the Diamondbacks (75.3%), Padres (74.3%), Braves (52.6%), Mets (25.4%) and Giants (16.8%).

NOLAN GORMAN: In 177 plate appearances since June 5, the Cards second baseman is factually in the bottom seven of all major-league hitters in all of the relevant offensive categories:

– Batting average: .175 … 156th among 157
– Onbase pct: .227 … 156th among 157
– Strikeout rate: 40 percent … 157th among 157
– Slugging pct: .304 … 150th among 157
– OPS: .531 … 155th among 157
– WAR: minus 0.7 … No. 156 of 157

What’s the point here? What’s the purpose? A 40 percent strikeout rate over two-plus months is horrendous, but at least the Cardinals could live with if Gorman was cranking plenty of homers. But Gorman isn’t doing that, with only five home runs since June 5. Over that time, 111 big-league hitters have walloped more HRs than Gorman.

A reset at Triple A Memphis makes a helluva lot of sense. Gorman can rework his hitting mechanics, receive better hitting instruction, and restore lost confidence. If the Cardinals were so quick to send Jordan Walker to Memphis in late April, then why are they making an exception for Gorman? The Cardinals are absolutely bizarre in their terrible mishandling of young hitters. How long will this go on? Anybody awake? Hello?

LARS NOOTBAAR: Speaking of failing left-handed hitters with less than four full seasons in the majors, Nootbaar is batting .218 with a .313 OBP and .309 slug since the All-Star break. And if anything, the downturn is intensifying. In August, Nootbaar is hitting .143 with a gross .351 OPS – and one measly RBI. Nootbaar is hitting .170 with runners in scoring position this season; that includes going 0 for 10 RISP since the All-Star break. As I noted recently, Nootbaar is hitting the ball hard and probably deserves better results. But an “expected” batting average and slugging percentage doesn’t win games. There has to be an actual payoff that helps the offense.

THE BULLPEN CHRONICLES: The difficulties began just as the Cardinals completed their one strong stretch (33-18) of the season. Since July 10, the St. Louis bullpen ranks 21st in the majors with a standard 4.87 ERA, 21st in fielding independent ERA (4.49) and dead last with an 18.7 percent strikeout rate. During that time, Cardinal relievers have the fourth-worst strand rate among MLB bullpens, leaving only 66 percent of runners on base. The Redbird relievers also rank 25th in Win Probability Added (WPA) since July 10.

Before July 10 the Cardinals ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 bullpen ERA and were third in Win Probability Added. There is no reasonable way to look at these trends and start riffing with the “Don’t worry, be happy!” malarkey.

ANDRE PALLANTE: He pitched well in Saturday’s loss at Kansas City, but was pulled after 104 pitches after working 5 and 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Since Pallante moved into the rotation on May 29, here’s a look at the relevant starting-pitching ERAs from that day:

Pallante, 3.88

Sonny Gray, 4.40

Kyle Gibson, 4.40

Lance Lynn, 4.78

Miles Mikolas, 5.03

Erick Fedde, 5.40.

Let’s give Fedde a break because he’s made only two starts since the trade with the White Sox. Lynn is on the IL with an inflamed knee. So when Lynn returns, we can expect him to go back into the rotation. But it will be funny to watch Cardinals management and the manager do all sorts of medal-winning caliber gymnastics in trying to explain why Mikolas will stay in the rotation instead of Pallante.

If that happens, it’s because of one reason: payroll politics. The Cardinals are paying Mikolas $18.5 million this season and will pay him $18.5 million next season. So to subtract Mikolas from the rotation would be a front-office admission of failure, and that ain’t going to happen.

Wait, shouldn’t winning be the top priority?

Sush your mouth!

Can’t talk about that! 

I assume the rehabbing lefty starter Steven Matz will be assigned to the bullpen when and if he returns. But the Cardinals are paying Matz a lot of money, and will do so again in 2025. But I don’t see why Matz should displace any of the current starting pitchers, including Pallante.

RYAN FERNANDEZ: Just an update. Before July 10, the rookie righty reliever had a 1.99 ERA and had allowed only 15.7 percent of inherited runners to score. Since June 10, Fernandez has a 9.00 ERA and has allowed 40% of inherited runners to score. Fernandez hasn’t lost any velocity on his four-seam fastball or slider. But – especially on the slider – the pitches don’t break as sharply. They’re more hittable. Before July 10, opponents batted .155 and slugged .225 vs. the slider. Since June 10, they’ve hit .238 and slugged .619 against his slider. And the whiff-swing rate on the slider is down by about five percent since July 10.

UPDATING THE OFFENSE: There’s been some overall improvement since the All-Star break, but the Cardinals still rank 14th among 15 NL teams with their average of 4.17 runs per game. This is hardly breaking news, but the performance with runners in scoring position just chokes any chance the STL offense has of plating more runs. And that’s what this comes down to. The Cardinals create plenty of chances to score runs but flub the assignment with the second-worst batting average (.229) and worst slugging percentage (.338) among NL teams with runners in scoring position.

Only 30 percent of STL’s runners on base have come around to score this season; among NL teams only Miami (28%) has failed to get runners home more often.

In August the Cardinals have the worst batting average (.139) and slugging percentage (.141) in the majors (.190) with runners in scoring position. (And no home runs with RISP.) And the opportunities have been there; their 90 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this month ranks 16th in the majors. Yeah, that could be better, but the Cardinals have had a large colony of baserunners in position to score over the last month, only to leave most of them stranded.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.