Bernie’s Redbird Review: In Losing A Doubleheader To The Royals, The Cardinals Revealed Their Vulnerable Side.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

If you ever traveled extensively as part of your job, you’ve probably experienced a letdown of sorts when returning home. It doesn’t mean you’re unhappy to be home, or that you don’t care about the next work-related assignment. Life, and business, go on.

But when you come home, perhaps you’re a little tired. Dragging. You might take a deep breath and exhale. Wind down. Decompress. Your road trip may have been a success but it was intense and challenging and left you a little drained. Getting back up to full speed doesn’t happen right away.

The Cardinals probably experienced some of that. Back in The Lou after an arduous 5-2 trip to Pittsburgh and Washington D.C., the Cardinals had a two-day window that included a rainout on Tuesday, and a wipeout on Wednesday.

In losing both games of yesterday’s doubleheader to the visiting Kansas City Royals, the Cardinals bounced to an early 3-0 lead in Game 1 and were outscored 6-1 the rest of the way to lose 6-4. The Redbirds had a 1-0 lead in Game 2, couldn’t hold it and KC opened a 5-2 lead. The Cardinals tried to rally with a couple of strong counterpunches but fell 8-5 in the night game.

The Cardinals entered the day only four games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central but the Brewers won for the second day in a row at Baltimore. And Kansas City’s two wins pushed the Cardinals to 5 and ½ games behind the Brewers. If the Cards had momentum, it took a hit Wednesday in downtown St. Louis.

These things happen. The Cardinals were 33-18 in their previous 51 games, and a comedown was inevitable. Before the start of the doubleheader, the Birds had zipped to a .647 winning percentage since May 12 – and there was no chance, no way, of the team sustaining such a torrid pace. The Royals are a good team. A better team than St. Louis. A split would have been acceptable. But the Cardinals didn’t have the winning edge that had carried them to so many victories in taught games.

And though it was only two games – and just one unhappy day – the Royals reminded us of the ways the Cardinals are vulnerable …

1) There are gaps in the starting pitching. Manager Oli Marmol started two young righthanders, Andre Pallante and Gordon Graceffo. The Royals had no problem breaking them down, with Pallante and Graceffo combining to allow four doubles, two homers and six earned runs in 9 and ⅔ innings. (ERA: 5.59.) KC bombed the two young RH starters for a .541 slugging percentage, and Pallante and Graceffo struck out only seven of 38 batters faced.

Though the issue tends to be downplayed by the apologists, Pallante remains assailable when taking on right-handed batters. In his eight starts this season Pallante has yielded a .298 average, .366 onbase percentage and .476 slugging percentage to RH batters. They’ve also cudgeled him for three homers and six doubles and the equivalent of a 6.20 ERA.

St. Louis starting pitching has veered off on wild fluctuations in a 13-game stretch since June 27. There were five good starts mixed in – two by Miles Mikolas, two from Pallante, and one by Lance Lynn – but the other eight starts were problematic. Pallante (1), Mikolas (1), Lynn (1), Graceffo (1) Sonny Gray (2) and Kyle Gibson (2) were battered for a combined 10.06 ERA in 36 and ⅔ innings. Keep an eye on this trend. It’s kind of important.

2) The St. Louis bullpen is the bedrock of the 2024 Cardinals but can’t be perfect all of the time. In Wednesday’s two defeats, Cardinal relievers were flogged for seven earned runs in 8 and ⅓ innings (7.56 ERA). John King and Giovanny Gallegos were fine. But the other four relievers utilized during the long day – Matthew Liberatore, Chris Roycroft, Ryan Fernandez and Andrew Kittredge – were thumped for a swollen 11.11 ERA in 8 and ⅓ innings. As I’ve mentioned, this bullpen is very good and the Cardinals have become overly dependent on it. When the bullpen doesn’t fire properly, the Cardinals are exposed. By losing the battle of the bullpens to Kansas City, the Cardinals lost Wednesday’s two games by an average of 2.5 runs. The STL relievers have spoiled us. They are the reason for the Cardinals’ success in close games. But if there’s bullpen breakage, the Redbirds are decidedly less imposing.

3) The Cardinals offense is still susceptible to blackouts. After grabbing the 3-0 lead in Game 1, the Cardinals managed just six runs over the 15 remaining innings. Their bats have been more productive since May 12 but consistency is elusive. This offense is sporadic. It comes and goes.

Here’s a thread on that …

* The Cardinals had only eight at-bats with runners in scoring position over the 18 innings played on Wednesday. They had two hits in those RISP at-bats but simply didn’t create enough run-scoring opportunities. This is an ongoing challenge for them.

* This isn’t an issue for Kansas City hitters. In the two games they went 7 for 14 with two doubles and 10 RBIs in RISP situations. The Royals have the best average in the majors (.291) with runners in scoring position this season. The Cardinals rank 27th with a .229 RISP. The disparity is even more glaring when we look at the number of runs scored by each team in RISP scenarios this season and where they rank in the category: Kansas City 338 (4th) and St. Louis 264 (26th.)

* STL’s lack of consistency is often a debilitating weakness. One example from the doubleheader: Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman combined to go 3 for 15 with nine strikeouts against the Royals. Goldy had a homer and two RBIs, and Gorman drove in a run. But that pile of strikeouts is demoralizing. The Royals did a much better job of two-strike hitting Wednesday.

* The Cardinals hit four homers on the day but three were solo shots. The only exception was a two-run jack by Alec Burleson early in Game 1. But subtracting the four homers the Cardinals went 12 for 66 in their other at-bats during the doubleheader (.189) and had only two walks. Lars Nootbaar looked good, giving the Cardinals a double, homer and three RBIs in eight at-bats. And Alec Burleson had another boom-boom day.

After getting thrown down twice by the Royals, the Cardinals are 16-23 this season (.410) against opponents that are .500 or better. Two-thirds of their 48 wins have been seized from opponents that have losing records.

Is that a concern? Probably so. In their first 92 games of the season, the Cardinals’ strength of schedule was ranked 24th in the majors. Only six MLB teams had a softer degree of difficulty.

That will likely change going forward. As of now the Cardinals are looking at handling MLB’s fourth-toughest schedule over their final 70 games. They have three games at Atlanta early next week. And beginning Aug. 16, St. Louis will play 24 of their final 41 games (58.5%) against teams that are holding postseason spots as of today. And the Redbirds will have 27 other games against teams that are currently within 3 and ½ games of a playoff ticket.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.