Bernie’s Redbird Review: Moving Willson Contreras To 1st Base Is The Right Move By The Cardinals — For Many Reasons.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Willson Contreras doesn’t want to move on from the Cardinals, he wants to stay with the franchise, and he’s willing to switch positions, transferring from catcher to first base. So he’s making a move … but not the move we may have expected going into the offseason.

This is a good piece of news for many reasons.

As you might have guessed, I have a lot to say …

1. Contreras has a no-trade clause, but had no reason to flex it. As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told the media immediately after the 2024 season, the team would contact Cardinal players that have long-term contracts to see if they would prefer to relocate instead of remaining with the Redbirds during a rebuilding phase. Contreras wanted to stay here. Sonny Gray likes it here, as he told Mozeliak. We’ll see what develops with third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has three seasons remaining on his expensive contract and could be a strong trade candidate. But Arenado also has a no-trade clause, and moving him could be extremely difficult. But this column is about Contreras, and I was pleased to learn that he’s committed to the Cardinals. I’m not surprised. He was proud to sign a five-year, $87.5 million contract with the Cards before the 2023 season and wants to see it through – and help the team during a transition. That’s admirable. I’lll never understand the (hopefully) small percentage of Cardinals fans that are endlessly negative about this guy.

2. Contreras will remain viable, and healthier, by moving to first base. And that means more at–bats. And hitting is what Contreras does best. He’ll work hard to be a respectable first baseman, and I think he’ll be OK. But if he’s slightly below-average defensively at catcher, then what’s the damage of having slightly below-average defense at first base? Contreras won’t match the defense the Cardinals received from Paull Goldschmidt at first base. But I prefer to wait and see how Contreras actually does at his new home before condemning the move in advance. In his brief time playing first base for the Cubs, Contreras was a minus 1 in defensive runs saved over 51.1 innings. That isn’t hideous, but it’s important for Contreras to be as good over there as he can. He knows this. And he has pride.

More and more teams are doing this – having their backstops catch less and get a large share of at-bats when in the lineup at other positions, mostly DH. (And Contreras will also get regular turns at DH.) As Baseball Prospectus recently noted in a study of catchers that have logged considerable time at other spots – calling them “mixed use” catchers – there were 14 of them in 2024. In the five years before that (excluding the pandemic season), there was an average of 6.6 mixed-use catchers per season. This is a way for teams to keep their catchers fresh, lessen the risk of injury and get more consistent results (offensively) from good-hitting catchers. This makes sense, and the Cardinals are following suit.

As Cardinals president of baseball operations told Derrick Goold at the GM meetings: “Basically, our medical team recommended it. In terms of if he really wants to extend his career, they think that would be best for him. Catching is, obviously, a demanding position.”

And we should note that the Cardinals planned to move Contreras to DH at some point during the life of the five-year contract, so a position change would have happened one way or another. At the time the Cardinals signed Contreras, they had Herrera in development but he wasn’t close to being ready to be a heavy-duty catcher in the big leagues. So there was a gap. And St. Louis went into this with the idea of having Contreras catch for two or three years until the next-gen catcher was prepared to go. And at that point, Contreras would be moved. And this is precisely what happened.

Some in the national media are depicting this as a failed signing. I have to scratch my head on this one. Let’s review …

* The Cardinals primarily wanted the Contreras bat … and the offense …

* The Cardinals paid for his bat … and the offense …

* The Cardinals still have his bat … and the offense …

* Except now the Cardinals will benefit even more from the Contreras bat and offense … because Contreras will be in the lineup at greater frequency.

This is pretty simple, yes?

And the Cardinals have a couple of young catchers who can do the job. And one of them (Herrera) is projected to produce a level of offense that is 17 percent above league average in 2025. So what is the problem?  Herrera will have to do a much better job of throwing out base stealers; he’s been poor in this area. But the Cardinals haven’t given Herrera the coaching that he needs — in the minors or the majors. Hopefully for Herrera, that will change in 2025. So I’m hardly going to dismiss the possibility of improvement. And once again, Herrera’s bat is a plus. If 2025 has been set aside as a “young player” season — which also includes the important task of the team doing everything possible to improve the young-player performance — than Herrera’s awful throw-out rate should be a major priority.

3. I’ve already seen some whining online about how the Cardinals are being stupid (again) by moving a player to a new position. Oh, really? These folks think this is just a Cardinals Thing and it hasn’t happened before? I’m specifically referring to moving catchers to another position. catcher position. Many catchers have changed their address on the baseball diamond. The movement didn’t always lead to poor defense; many of these guys did fine at their new spots. Others struggled. But my point is, this is nothing new. This is just a partial listing of catchers that were relocated to new spots for various reasons.

Buster Posey
Joe Mauer
Craig Biggio
Ted Simmons
Yogi Berra
Johnny Bench
Gary Carter
Josh Gibson
Dale Murphy
Joe Torre
* Eddie Murray
Gene Tenace
Carlos Santana
Kyle Schwarber
B.J. Surhoff
Brian Downing
Todd Zeile
Salvador Perez
Josh Donaldson
Stephen Vogt

And there are more — including Scott Hatteberg of “Moneyball” fame. As you may have noticed, there are quite a few Hall of Famers on that list. (*Murray, a Cooperstown inductee, was drafted as a catcher by Baltimore and converted to first base in the minors.)

Joe Torre is an ideal example because he was a Cardinal at the time of his position pitch. This was written by Joe Sheehan:

“At the age of 28, Cardinals’ slugger Joe Torre looked like he was in decline, having posted his two worst seasons since becoming a regular catcher in 1963. Torre spent most of the 1969 season as a first baseman, then took up third base on a part-time basis in 1970. A year after the switch, he had his best season, winning the 1971 NL MVP Award with a .363/.421/.555 performance. Torre would remain a productive hitter through 1974.”

Yeah, really idiotic of the Cardinals to remove the catching gear from Torre and post him elsewhere. Pardon my sarcasm.

4. By moving Contreras to first base, the Cardinals open considerable playing time for their young catcher Ivan Herrera. Yes, Pedro Pages will also have a busy role in the 2025 catching setup, but the Cardinals would be making a big mistake to limit Herrera. Pages is more advanced defensively, but that’s mostly about calling pitches. Herrera is working to get better at that, and the only way for him to enhance that pitch-selection skill is to get as many reps as possible. It won’t happen if Herrera is seated in the dugout and watching Pages play more. This is for an obvious reason: Herrera, unlike Pages, has a chance to become a special hitter. And that shouldn’t be downplayed.

Last season, among Cardinals that had at least 250 plate appearances, here’s where Herrera ranked in several important categories:

– Batting average: first at .301
– Onbase percentage: .372, second to Contreras
– Slugging percentage: .428, second to Contreras
– OPS: .800, second to Contreras
– wRC+: second to Contreras.

In 2024, Contreras was 40 percent above league average offensively per park-and-league adjusted runs created. (wRC+). And Herrera was second to Contreras at 27 percent above league average offensively.

By playing Contreras at first base and DH, the Cardinals will have their two best hitters in the lineup more frequently. Last season Contreras and Herrera combined for 617 plate appearances. This season, that number of PA should increase to at least 1,000. And that means more offense for the Cardinals. But the Cards have to be smart about this. Pages will certainly play a lot, and can be used as a defensive replacement in other games if needed.

But if you have a potential gem in Ivan Herrera – who is still only 24 years old – what would be the point of having a “rebuilding” season designed to give young players more extensive opportunities, only to limit Herrera’s playing time? If the Cardinals do something like that, then this “full opportunity” pledge to young players will be a joke — and incomprehensibly ludicrous.

5. The Cardinals are overstocked with catchers. That’s all the more reason to move Contreras to first base/DH. Herrera and Pages are here. Catching prospect Jimmy Crooks is getting closer; he’ll be the starting catcher for Triple A Memphis next season. And behind Crooks there is Leonardo Bernal, who probably will be the starter at Double A Springfield. Crooks is 23. Bernal is 20. Both are future big-league catchers.

Speaking to Forbes.com, one scout had this to say after observing Bernal in the Arizona Fall League. “You watch this kid and he hustles every second,” the scout told Forbes. “He’s got good hands, essential behind the plate and it helps him at bat. He’s got good power from the left side, doesn’t seem as confident right-handed. But he’s 20 years old. Let’s see where he goes. I think he can be an above-average catcher, maybe more, in the majors.”

The Cardinals have too many catchers. That’s the proverbial pleasant problem. But there isn’t enough room for all of them with the big club in 2026 and beyond … so it clears a space by moving Contreras up the line to first base.

6. I’ll say it again: Contreras is underrated offensively and it’s way past time to wake up on that. Among MLB right-handed batters who have at least 850 plate appearances over the last two seasons, Contreras ranks 10th in wRC+ at 33 percent above league average offensively. And he’s sixth in onbase percentage, seventh in walk rate, 18th in slugging,11th in OPS, and 17th in Isolated Power. In his two seasons as a Cardinal, Contreras has performed 28 percent above league average against righty pitchers and is 46 percent above league averages vs. lefties.

7. There’s a platoon possibility. Not a full-time platoon, but I’ll explain. The left-side swinging Alex Burleson plays capable defense at first base, and in 2024 he popped righty pitchers for a .292 average, .464 slug and .804 OPS. Overall, Burly was 25 percent above league average vs. right-handed opponents. Contreras is slightly better than that against RHP, but that isn’t the point. As Mozeliak has indicated, when Burleson plays at first base, Contreras can be deployed as a DH.

Keep this in mind: last season major-league hitters faced right-handed pitching in 73 percent of their plate appearances. In other words: Burleson will get plenty of at-bats vs. righties – either as a first baseman or DH. And this is where Herrera factors in. Last season he ripped right-handed pitchers for a .323 average, .391 onbase percentage and .465 slug. As a team the Cardinals were around league average offensively against righty pitching. With more at-bats for Contreras, Burleson and Herrera the Cards figure to be tougher in matchups vs. right-handers.

8. Does the offense supplied by Contreras lose value because of the position swap? Good-hitting catchers aren’t easy to find. OK, I get the point … but if I may, here are a couple of things to think about.

A) I’m not sure how the Cardinals would lose all that much value (offensively) from their catchers over the next few seasons as long as Herrera gets enough at-bats … and with Jimmy Crooks – who bats left and crushes righty pitching – on the way.

B) Contreras has an offensive profile that easily provides an above-average performance level at the first-base position. Just to have a larger sample size, I used the statistics from the three-season period from 2022 through 2024. And this is what I found when comparing the league-average first-baseman stats to what Contreras has generated since ‘22:

– Batting average: Contreras, +4% above average
– Onbase percentage: Contreras, +34% above average
– Slugging percentage: +41% above average
– OPS: +76% above average
– Isolated Power: +44% above average

As for wRC+, Contreras is 23 percent above the MLB average for first basemen over the past three seasons. He also has a better home-run ratio and a higher rate of doubles than the league’s average by first basemen.

9. If Contreras can successfully moves his usual offense to first base going forward, here’s how he’d measure up against prominent first basemen since the start of 2022:

+ Contreras had a 133 wRC+ that would be tied for second among MLB first basemen since 2022. The only first baseman with better numbers over that time is Freddie Freeman.

+ The Contreras OBP (.361) would be tied for fourth among first basemen.

+ The .468 Contreras slug over the past three seasons would rank ninth. His OPS (.829) would be tied for sixth with Pete Alonso.

+ His Isolated Power would rank fifth.

OK, I’ve typed enough!

Please pardon my typos. Busy day.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.