Bernie’s Redbird Review: Notes On Oli Marmol’s 3rd Season As Cardinals Manager.

REDBIRD REVIEW 

Noteworthy Thoughts On Oli Marmol

1. With the Cardinals making the decision to have Chaim Bloom take over as president of baseball operations before the 2026 season, it’s OK to have Marmol manage the Cardinals in 2025. I strongly prefer handing Bloom a blank slate as he becomes the top baseball executive for chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. Rather than sack Marmol right now, and having John Mozeliak hire a new manager … and who would want that? … it’s better to have Bloom determine the future of the manager’s job at the conclusion of 2025. I don’t know how Bloom feels about Marmol. He may like him … who knows? But again, it doesn’t matter because no decision must be made right now. Bloom will focus his attention on restoring the player development and farm-system operation, and that’s a full-time mission. The project is enormous in scope … and tremendously important.

2. I think this note is interesting. Let’s take a look at Marmol’s first three seasons as Cardinals manager and compare them to Tony La Russa’s first three seasons (1996-1998) as St. Louis manager …

• Winning percentage: Marmol .508, TLR .502
• Postseason appearances: Marmol 1, TLR 1
• Losing seasons: Marmol 1, TLR 1.
• Division titles: Marmol 1, TLR 1.

Why is this interesting to me? Because many Cardinals fans tell me Marmol is the worst manager who ever sat in a dugout. And of course La Russa is enshrined in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown for being one of the best managers in baseball history. So I’m not sure why one of the top managers in MLB history and the worst manager in the history of all mankind had very similar records in their first three seasons in the St. Louis job. And TLR had more talent to work with.

3. Footnote: La Russa had two winning seasons, two losing seasons and one playoff-bound team in his first four seasons as Cardinal manager. And yes, I remember what the fans were saying about him back then. It wasn’t very nice.

4. La Russa, however, led the ‘96 Cardinals to a triumph over the Padres in the divisional round, and pushed the Braves to the limit in the NLCS before getting eliminated on a rout (15-0) Game 7. Marmol’s postseason shot came in 2022, but in the wild-card round the Redbirds were swept by the Phillies in two games. Marmol was too slow to react in the ninth inning of Game 1, when Ryan Helsley imploded after inheriting a 2-0 lead and needing only three outs to lock down a victory. Helsley was strafed for four runs, the Cardinals lost 6-3, and were basically in a trance while losing 2-0 in Game 2.

5. Another interesting note, at least to me: Marmol went 83-79 this season. Craig Counsell also went 83-79 in his first season leading the Cubs. Counsell, widely viewed as one of the top managers in baseball, was lured from Milwaukee on a record-setting contract that pays him $40 million over five years. No one has called Marmol a top manager, and no one will offer Oli a $40 million contract to defect from the Cardinals. But even though the Cubs spent $46 million more on the 26-man payroll than the Cardinals did, Marmol had as many wins as Counsell in 2024.

6. I guess that means Counsell is overrated … or Marmol is underrated … or something like that. But the Cardinals winning seven more games than they should have — based on run differential — was the largest gap by any major-league manager this season.

7. More on Marmol and Counsell: based on run differential, a strong underlying factor, the Cardinals should have been 10 games under .500 at 76-86 this season. Based on the same metric, Counsell’s Cubs should have been 14 games over .500 at 88–74. I’m even more confused now. Counsell is heralded. Marmol is hated. But Marmol got more out of the Cardinals than Counsell squeezed from the Cubs. How can this be? Impossible.

8. I’ve praised Marmol for how well he managed the Cardinals’ bullpen this season. If he had done a poor or mediocre job of running a bullpen, there’s no chance of St. Louis posting a winning record this season. The Cardinals would have been under .500 and under water. Deeply so. But the St. Louis bullpen – statistically – was one of the best in the majors in 2024.

This year the Cards went 64-4 when leading a game through seven innings and 69-1 when leading through eight innings. The Cardinals had the NL’s best reliever ERA (3.21) in the National League this season when pitching in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. The bullpen was seventh overall with a 3.64 ERA. With Helsley as the hammer, STL relievers led the majors in saves (55) and were fourth with 103 holds. This bullpen was also eighth in the majors in Win Probability Added.

9. The 2024 bullpen was among the very best units for the Cardinals in the 29-season tenure of DeWitt as the franchise chairman. Here’s where the 2024 set of St. Louis relievers ranked among the 29 bullpens during the DeWitt Years:

• Shutdowns: 164, 1st.
• Holds: 103, 4th
• Saves: 55, tied for 3rd
• Innings pitched: 5th
• Wins Above Replacement: 7th
• Fielding Independent ERA: 3.78, 5th
• ERA: 3.64, 10th
• Strikeout rate: 8.3 (per 9 IP), 10th.

10. Two of the complaints I heard the most about Marmol this season? He uses too many lineups, and he worries too much about matchups.

OK. I’m not sure what the complainants are basing this on.

I did a little research …

+ Marmol used 114 different lineups this season. The other 29 teams used an average of 131 lineups. And 25 major-league teams used more lineup combinations than Marmol. If anything, the gripers should be hollering about Marmol not going with MORE lineup combinations.

+ With the Cardinals on offense, Marmol had the platoon-split advantage in 51 percent of the plate appearances. Twenty teams had a higher platoon-split edge. Five teams had a platoon-split advantage of at least 60 percent. If anything, the critics should be hollering for Marmol to go with the platoon-split matchup advantage more often.

+ Marmol used the pitcher vs. hitter matchups very well in 2024. Here’s what I base that on: this season, when Marmol had a right-handed pitcher going against a right-handed batter, the cumulative ERA was 3.05, third best in the majors. And when Marmol plugged in a lefty reliever to face a left-handed batter, the cumulative ERA was 2.09 – fourth best in the majors. So what exactly are we fussing about?

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.