Bernie’s Redbird Review: Revenge Of The Birds? Former Cardinals Are All Over The October Stage!

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals have missed the last two postseasons, and we’ve missed seeing them there. October baseball used to be a grand tradition in our blessed baseball town, but in this waning love affair with the Cardinals there’s nothing in the autumn chill except hearts that are turning cold … and customers that will likely purchase fewer tickets in 2025.

The fall cider has a bitter taste now, not nearly as sweet. And it doesn’t help to see more than a dozen former Cardinals make it to the 2024 playoffs with their new teams.

As I said Monday in my YouTube channel video, we can call it the “Curse of the ex-Cardinals.”

Or, we can just curse …

Revenge of the Birds?

Well, I don’t think these former Birds are getting revenge on the St. Louis Cardinals. But in some cases they’re making the Cardinals look bad — at least in the eyes of the team’s fans. Some of this wildly overblown, and I’ll explain that later in the column.

Let’s open with a roll call, shall we? A few of these gentlemen didn’t appear in the postseason — but they were part of their club’s regular-season push into the playoffs. And some are afterthoughts, having moved on from St. Louis a long time ago.

• Paul DeJong, Royals
• Michael Wacha, Royals
• Tommy Pham, Royals
• Jason Heyward, Astros
• Marcell Ozuna, Braves
• Harrison Bader, Mets
• Jose Quintana, Mets
• Adam Ottavino, Mets
• Luke Weaver, Yankees
• Edmundo Sosa, Phillies
• Donovan Solano, Padres
• Joe Kelly, Dodgers
• Tommy Edman, Dodgers
• Jack Flaherty, Dodgers

That’s 14. And we can make it a tidy 15 by including Padres manager Mike Shildt.

A few quick notes: DeJong, the infielder, was on Kansas City’s postseason roster but didn’t play during the Royals’ wildcard-series win over the Orioles and their ALDS loss to the Yankees …Solano, a utility man, never appeared in a game for the Cardinals but was in their minor-league system for seven seasons, and he’s still playing at age 36. The 2024 Padres were Solano’s sixth major-league team … Joe Kelly, a standout reliever last appeared in a game on Sept. 27 but endured a setback while trying to work his way back from a shoulder injury … Ottavino, a 14-year veteran reliever, pitched only one season for the Cardinals, as a rookie in 2010. He was scratched from the Mets’ NLCS roster when the team activated utility dude Jeff McNeil from the IL.

Let’s take a look at some of the other St. Louis baseball alums…

Harrison Bader: He did his usual fine job defensively this season, but his offense cratered after the All-Star break. After an exceptional first half, Bader hitt .167 with a poor .513 OPS after the break. Bader ended the regular season by going 3 for 28 in his final 14 games. Going into NLCS Game 2, Bader is 1 for 6 this postseason with two steals and three runs scored.

The Cardinals dealt Bader to the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2022 in a deal that worked out well for both sides. The Cards benefited from starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery’s presence until the also-ran Cardinals traded him to Texas at the 2023 deadline. Bader went off during the 2022 postseason, batting .333 and bombing five home runs in nine games for the Yanks.

Jose Quintana: The classy lefty has turned in two money performances in the NL playoffs so far, pitching 11 scoreless innings across two starts. Quintana did a solid job in the regular season, pitching to a 3.75 ERA in 31 starts. Quintana was outstanding for St. Louis after being acquired from Pittsburgh at the 2022 trade deadline. He teamed with fellow newcomer Monthomery for a fantastic stretch run; the Cardinals went 17-6 in their combined 23 starts to secure the NL Central division title with 93 wins. Quintana pitched beautifully in the opening game of the 2022 NL wild-card series, blanking the Phillies on two hits over 5 and ⅓ scoreless innings.

Quintana, a free agent, expressed his desire to remain in St. Louis but the Cardinals had other ideas, wanting to save a 2023 rotation spot for lefty Steven Matz after he’d been grounded by injuries in his first season as a Cardinal. Matz had signed a four-year, $44 million free-agent deal before the ‘22 campaign. And the injuries have continued to limit his impact.

Before 2023 Quintana signed a two-year free-agent deal with the Mets that averages $13 million per season. Mets owner Steve Cohen had tried to sign Matz and thought he had a deal, only for Matz to throw a curve and sign with the Cardinals instead. A year later, Cohen’s club signed Quintana. And having Quintana worked out a lot better for the Mets than having the injury-prone Matz – though I must point out that a rib-cage injury limited Quinata to 13 starts for the Mets in 2023. But he’s been a positive addition for New York overall.

Luke Weaver: He’s become a fantastic story for the Yankees, who spent most of the regular season trying to settle their erratic bullpen. They tried out several closer candidates, and Weaver got his chance late in the regular season. Weaver had done good work as a middle reliever for most of the ‘24 season, pitching to a 2.89 ERA in 62 appearances.

Weaver took over as the closer in late September and the audition was a success. He’s done a terrific job in the role so far. Weaver didn’t allow a run in bagging four regular-season saves, and he has three saves in 4 and ⅓ scoreless innings this postseason.

Weaver, 31, was drafted in the first round (27th overall) by the Cardinals in 2014. From 2016 through 2018 he had a 4.79 ERA in 52 games (43 starts) for the Cardinals. He was a key piece in the 2019 trade with Arizona that delivered Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. It would be ridiculous for anyone to retroactively criticize that trade just because Weaver has finally found his niche as a big-league hurler.

NOW, FOR 3 PROMINENT NAMES

1. Tommy Edman: He didn’t play for the Cardinals at all this season. After offseason wrist surgery Edman went through a lengthy rehab (and several setbacks) while trying to heal up and get ready to join the Cardinals. But he was traded to the Dodgers instead.

After paying Edman around $6 million for not playing this year, the Cards moved him to Los Angeles at the trade deadline in a three-way transaction that brought starting pitcher Eric Fedde to St. Louis.

The Dodgers assumed about $2.5 million left on Edman’s contract for this season, and he’s owed a salary of $9.5 million in 2025. Fedde appealed to the Cardinals for a few reasons. At the time of the trade the team was in postseason contention but fizzled out in August. After a so-so beginning for the Cardinals, Fedde had a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts of the season. He’s under contract through 2025 and gives St. Louis rotation protection. But Fedde is also a potential trade chip – either this offseason or at the 2025 trading deadline.

Edman batted .237 in 37 regular-season games for the Dodgers, but the switch-hitting utility tool displayed substantial power when facing left-handed pitching, hitting .412 with four home runs and an .882 slugging percentage.

Edman has become even more valuable to the Dodgers during the postseason; they moved him from center field to shortstop after losing starting shortstop Miguel Rojas to a season-ending injury during the NLDS.

I have a theory: I can’t help but think that part of the reason for Edman’s trade was related to Chaim Bloom joining the Cardinals as a consultant. Ownership and management obviously coveted Bloom for a more important job, and that became reality when Bloom agreed to a five-year contract to serve as the president of baseball operation beginning next offseason.

The Cardinals knew the comprehensive scope of Bloom’s first big project – the restoration of the minor league and player development system – was underway. With that, the Cards clearly planned to step back in ‘2025, slashing veteran payroll while giving expanded opportunities to their younger pitchers and hitters.

And in my view, the Cardinals got a head start on the plan by sending Edman to the Dodgers. The Cards already have multiple players who can fill the role Edman had with the Cardinals. In that context it made sense to shed Edman’s $9.5 million salary (in 2025) while picking up Fedde. The right-hander is due $7.5 million next season so the Cardinals will come out ahead in the payroll savings.

2. Lane Thomas: He’s been a breakout star for the Guardians this postseason, leading the tournament with nine RBIs going into the ALCS matchup against the Yankees. Thomas helped the Guards take down the Tigers in the five-game division-round series by clouting a three-run homer in a Game 1 victory, then capping it off with a series-winning grand-slam homer in Game 5. Thomas was a big reason for Cleveland’s advancement to the semifinal round.

This is the type of event that automatically triggers an overreaction. There’s been some quick revisionist history here among some media and fans in St. Louis, with an outbreak of second-guessing of the trade that dispatched Thomas to the Nationals at the 2021 trade deadline in exchange for the aging warhorse starting pitcher Jon Lester.

In their drive to make the postseason the Cardinals were desperate for starting pitching in 2021, and Lester came through for the stretch run. After a rocky performance in his first two starts as a Cardinal, Lester had a 3.40 ERA over his final 10 outings and STL went 7-3 in those games.

This is an easy cheap shot to take at John Mozeliak, but I decline to do so. Lester helped fill a glaring need at the time and the trade made sense. And Thomas was definitely expendable when Mozeliak went fishing for starting pitching.

Remember, this was 2021. Over the final three months of the season, the outfield led by Bader (center), Tyler O’Neill (left) and Dylan Carlson (right) collectively put up strong numbers that gave the Cardinals one of the top five outfields – offensively and defensively – in the majors.

After Bader returned on July 1 after breaking two ribs on a diving-catch attempt on May 24, this is how the St. Louis outfield performed the rest of the way:

+ 2nd in batting average, .283
+ 3rd in slugging pct., .502
+ 4th in home runs, 47
+ 5th in onbase pct., .347
+ 5th in OPS, .849
+ 5th in wRC+, 127
+ 5th in defensive runs saved

In 2021, the oldest of the three starting outfielders was Bader at 27. Carlson was 22. O’Neill was 26. And all three had plenty of contract control before free agency. I can’t blame Mozeliak and the organization for believing they had their outfield set. The Cardinals also had Lars Nootbaar as an attractive option for a fourth outfielder.

So given the circumstances, why would Mozeliak hold onto Thomas – AT THAT TIME – instead of trading him? At the time of the deal, Thomas was trying to rehab his hitting at Triple A Memphis after batting just .104 with a 29 percent strikeout rate for the Cardinals in 32 games.

Since moving on from St. Louis, Thomas has slugged .434 in 468 big-league games. That’s really good. Salute. But he also strikes out a lot and doesn’t draw many walks.

During the 2024 regular season. Thomas batted .237 for the Nationals and Guardians and slugged a flat .400. Based on OPS+, Thomas was one percent above league-average offensively in ‘24.

After getting traded to the Guardians, Thomas batted .209 with an awful 35 percent strikeout rate for the rest of the regular season.

Thomas thrived in D.C. in the immediate aftermath of the Lester trade. Over the last three seasons, Thomas has shown some pop and is seven percent above league average offensively. That’s not bad … but this doesn’t make him, say, the next Joe DiMaggio. And Thomas will turn 30 next season.

It’s silly to go back and now pretend that trading Lane Thomas was a colossal mistake. Does the St. Louis front office stink at the job of evaluating outfielders? Of course! But the Lane Thomas trade doesn’t make my list of stupid trades. You’ll have to pardon my attempt to be fair.

3. Jack Flaherty: This one actually makes me giggle. When the Cardinals traded Flaherty to the Orioles at the deadline in 2023, I don’t recall hearing, or knowing of, one unofficial resident of Cardinal Nation who said, “Wow, I can’t believe the Cardinals are doing something this idiotic.” And if anyone out there now claims they said that at the time, well, I’m going to have to ask them to submit to a Polygraph.

Cardinals fans were way, way down on Jack Flaherty as 2023 crawled on – .and with good reason. After his excellent 2019 season at age 23, Flaherty never came close to approaching that level again for St. Louis. Injuries were a huge issue. Too many mediocre performances were another issue. Early in 2023, Flaherty’s role in low-bridging catcher Willson Contreras to concoct an excuse for own failures was weak, weak stuff. Flaherty’s immaturity was an issue, and at times he seemed to worry too much about social media.

Let’s retrace the history beginning in 2020:

– Flaherty had a 4.91 ERA in the 2020 Covid season.

– In 2021, he missed 103 days with injuries.

– In 2022 Jack missed 139 days with injuries.

– A sequence of shoulder maladies lowered his fastball velocity.

– Flaherty was healthy in 2023 but was hardly going at full blast. He had a 4.43 ERA for the Cardinals with a league average strikeout rate and an annoying habit of handing out too many walks.

– Flaherty was even worse for the Orioles after the trade that sent him to Baltimore at the 2023 deadline. The O’s yanked Flaherty from the rotation after he got shredded for a 7.11 ERA in seven starts. When we combine Flaherty’s stats with the Cardinals and Orioles, he was pounded for a 5.00 ERA with an average strikeout rate and a walk rate that soared over 10 percent.

You can try to claim that the Cardinals didn’t get much for Flaherty … but what the heck did you think his trade value really was after three-plus seasons of injuries and mediocrity?

To his credit, Flaherty pulled himself together to prepare for 2024. He strengthened his shoulder, and began putting more spin on his four-seam fastball. Highly motivated after signing a one-year contract – with another crack at free agency following 2024 – Flaherty was outstanding for Detroit this season. The Tigers flipped him to the Dodgers at the deadline.

Overall Flaherty had a 3.17 ERA in his combined starts for the Tigers and Dodgers during the regular season. That was the 13th best ERA among big-league starting pitchers, and his 30 percent strikeout rate ranked fourth among starters. His first postseason start for LA wasn’t good, but Flaherty was in peak form in Game 1 of the NLCS, shutting out the Mets on two hits in seven impressive innings.

But that Flaherty wasn’t nothing like what we saw from him in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. If you want to rip the Cardinals for anything, I’ll tell you what it is. Flaherty went to Detroit for a couple of reasons, but the biggest draw was the Tigers’ intelligent approach to enhancing pitchers. The Detroit operation is more advanced than many MLB teams and have gained an edge with a biomechanics program that syncs a pitcher’s delivery in a way that powers up the fastball.

The Tigers also have a state of the art pitching lab as a valuable resource to reshape pitchers, and Flaherty benefited from all of these things. That’s why his fastball movement and velocity have taken a significant leap.

This case just shows us, once again, how far the Cardinals had deteriorated below the MLB standards over recent years. The Cardinals were failures in this area, and it’s inexcusable. The Cards couldn’t “fix” Flaherty because they lacked the advanced (and financial) resources to make it plausible. St. Louis is getting better at this, and will really come up with next-level tools once Chaim Bloom fully takes over.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.