Bernie’s Redbird Review. Stating The Obvious: The St. Louis Bullpen Can’t Continue To Cough Up Games.

Welcome to The Redbird Review

Hello, and I hope your long weekend has been happy and restful. I’ve been overdosing on college football. This just in: Alabama is great, and by gosh, who could have ever predicted that? I’ve been sipping adult beverages, and eating plenty of barbeque. I didn’t say I planned to focus on health this weekend. Can I get the free holiday pass? Thank you for your kindness and understanding.

I decided to bang on the keyboard today as we get ready for the start of the four-game series between the Dodgers and Cardinals and The Return Of Albert Pujols II at Busch Stadium.

Let’s begin…

Both of these things are true:

1) The Cardinals’ 5-5 road trip through Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Milwaukee was extremely disappointing for an obvious reason: they gave away three wins because of late-inning bullpen collapses, and you can’t do that at this stage of the season. So instead of a 8-2 roadie, they finished .500. Big difference.

2) The Cardinals are doing many things well. And at 3 games out, they’re still kicking in the race for the No. 2 wild-card spot.

Contradictory? Yes. For sure.

And also appropriate.

Because this team is a contradiction.

Since the start of August, the Cardinals are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They’re third in the majors in batting average (2.64), tied for second in onbase percentage (.341), seventh in slugging percentage (.443) and fifth in OPS (.784.) In park-and-league adjusted runs created, the Cardinals are No. 1 in the National League since Aug. 1 at 13 percent above league average offensively.

Since the start of Aug. 1, the Cards are ranked 10th in the majors with a starting-pitching ERA of 3.70. And while the bullpen ERA (3.94) over that time isn’t great, it’s still above average at No. 12 in MLB. Bottom line: a team ERA of 3.80 since Aug. 1 that’s ninth-best in the majors. And what about Jon Lester? He’s 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last five starts.

For the season the Cardinals are No. 2 in the majors in defensive runs saved according to Fielding Bible. And they’re No. 9 in the majors with a net baserunning gain of +44.

Despite all of the positive factors, the Cardinals are only 17-14 since Aug. 1 for a winning percentage of .548 that ranks 7th among the 15 NL teams. With a plus-23 run differential over that time, the Cardinals should have two or three more wins.

So what’s the rub here?

— As everybody knows by now, they’re spitting up late leads in a way we hadn’t seen over the first three-plus months of the season. The Cardinals have lost 12 games since Aug. 5 — and in seven of the 12 the Cardinals coughed up a lead at some point from the seventh inning on. That’s a very serious problem for a team with October aspirations. Since Aug. 5 the Cards are 16-12. But with seven of the 12 losses zapping them late in games to break the bullpen — well, just think about how good that record would be had the STL relievers held up under pressure.

More on this in a few moments.

— Despite some gaudy overall numbers during the last month-plus of baseball, the offense is inconsistent. The Cardinals have posted a below-MLB average run total in 18 of their last 31 games. And we saw the crazy inconsistency twice on the just completed road trip. After beating the Pirates 13-0, the Cardinals scored only three runs the next day and lost 4-3. After teeing off for 15 runs on Friday in Milwaukee, the Cardinals were shutout (with only three hits) in the next day’s 4-0 loss.

— The Cardinals are not faring well in the high-leverage areas. Since Aug. 1 they rank 20th in the majors with a high-leverage OPS of .697. And their team ERA of 13.90 in high-leverage settings ranks 26th. The Cardinals are coming up short in pivotal, turning-point moments.

— Since Aug. 1 the St. Louis bullpen ranks 23rd in the majors with an ERA of 5.05 in the eighth and ninth innings combined. When we include the seventh inning, the 4.74 ERA over the final three innings combined puts the Cardinals at 22nd in the bigs. The fantastic work of T.J. McFarland and Luis Garcia can’t protect the Cardinals from the deteriorating performances of bullpen keystones Alex Reyes, Giovanny Gallegos and Genesis Cabrera.

— Here are the Aug–Sept earned-run averages for each of the three relievers: Reyes 7.30; Gallegos 7.24; Cabrera 6.23. In an eye-opening contrast, McFarland and Garcia have not allowed an earned run in August and September.

— McFarland and Garcia have pitched a combined 34.1 innings since Aug. 1 without a single earned run marked against them. Reyes, Gallegos and Cabrera have been blitzed for 30 earned runs in 39 combined innings for an ERA of 6.92.

— Given the statistics, one would think that manager Mike Shildt would be turning to McFarland and Garcia to handle high-leverage assignments on a more frequent basis. But he hasn’t.

Here are the number of batters faced for each reliever in high-leverage situations since Aug. 1:

Gallegos 26
Reyes 23
Cabrera 9
Garcia 8
McFarland 6

— Gallegos, Reyes and Cabrera have handled a combined 11.2 innings of high-leverage pitching since Aug. 1 and given up 17 earned runs; their collective ERA in the most crucial situations is an astonishingly bad 15.30. Garcia and McFarland have combined for 3.2 high-leverage innings since Aug. 1 without allowing an earned run.

To sum all of this up: Shildt continues to use Reyes and Gallegos — and to a lesser extent, Cabrera — as if they were still the shutdown, dominating, bulletproof  relievers that we saw over the first three months of the season.

On Reyes: Through the end of June, Reyes had a 0.96 ERA with an opponent OPS of .505. But since the beginning of July, Reyes has a 7.18 ERA with an opponent OPS of .718 and a declining strikeout rate of 23.6%.

On Gallegos: Gio had a 1.93 ERA with an opponent OPS of .408 at the end of June. Since then, he has a 5.96 ERA with an opponent OPS of .787 and a declining strikeout rate.

On Cabrera: His ERA was 3.95 during the first three months; it’s 6.65 since July 1. But he retains most of his punchout power. But I have to say this about Cabrera: In his last 20 appearances since July 10 all of the damage against him came in two games. The Cardinals say Cabrera was tipping pitches, and the Pirates attacked him twice for a bunch of runs. Which leads to a question: if “Cabby” was tipping pitches, and the Pirates easily picked up on that, then why didn’t the Cardinal manager and coaches spot it sooner. This is not a proactive group.

As you know, Gallegos and Reyes squandered a 5-1 lead in the ninth inning of Sunday’s stunning 6-5 loss to the Brewers. It wasn’t the first time.

Since the All-Star break Reyes and Gallegos have a combined 0-8 record, mostly because of blown saves that resulted in losses. Gallegos has two blown two saves in five opportunities since the break; Reyes has five blown saves in his last 14 opps. Combined, that’s 12 saves in 19 opportunities, or 63 percent. Not good.

During the first three months the Cardinals had a 24-10 record (.705) when Gallegos appeared in a game. In the last two-plus months they have a 17-9 record (.653) when Gallegos pitches. As for Reyes: the team was 27-8 (.771) when he pitched in a game through the first three months; it’s 15-9 (.625) over the last two-plus months.

But Shildt declines to accept the reality here. After Sunday’s meltdown the manager talked about Reyes’ “plus stuff, the best stuff of anybody” and cited the reliever’s 29 saves on the season. That’s nice. I know that publicly Shildt will always support his players. But he should be careful about spreading disinformation.

Because Shildt’s comments ignore the glaring downturn in Reyes’ performance. Reyes was 100 percent in converting save opps before the All-Star break; that save rate is 64% since the break. The Reyes strikeout rate was 31% before the break and is 24.7% since the break. And after allowing 0.4 homers per nine innings before the All-Star break, the home-run rate vs. Reyes has jumped to 1.9 homers per nine innings since the break.

After Sunday’s crushing loss, Shildt described Gallegos as “great all year,” which is factually incorrect. Through June, Gallegos had been touched for only nine earned runs in 42 innings. Since the start of July he’s given up nearly twice as many earned runs (17) in only 25.2. How, exactly, does that qualify as “great all year?”

I’ve been saying this for several weeks, and I’ll repeat it again: Reyes and Gallegos aren’t the same pitchers. They are significantly less effective after being subjected to a heavy workload over the first three months of the season. (And the same is true of Cabrera.) And all of the statistics — you know, facts — back that up. Hopefully the relievers will bounce back in a consistent way, but once the burn-out effect sets in, it isn’t easy to reverse the trend.

We witnessed that with the many relievers that were fried by the previous manager Mike Matheny including Edward Mujica, Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness, and Matthew Bowman.

Shildt can either insert McFarland and Garcia into more high-leverage situations in an attempt to calm things down, or he can continue to play with fire by going against the obvious trends and a load of factual evidence that reaffirm the degeneration of Reyes and Gallegos. It’s a tough situation. These decisions aren’t easy. But that’s why the Cardinals (presumably) pay a manager: to make those difficult and uncomfortable calls.

This isn’t supposed to be about getting the feels and being sensitive to a player’s feelings. The obligation is to the entire team — full stop — and everyone in the clubhouse who is trying hard to win. You owe it to all players to play the best players. Isn’t that what Shildt did in elevating Edmundo Sosa at the shortstop position over Paul DeJong? So what’s the difference with the relievers?

(Yeah, it would also be nice if the front office had done something more ambitious to supplement the bullpen and give Shildt better options. But hey, now! That Brandon Dickson is such a heartwarming story!)

The Cardinals are down to 27 games remaining on the schedule and sit three games out of the second wild-card spot. Despite their 8-10 record since Aug. 17 the Redbirds are in position to make an upward move and land in the postseason. The other contenders have let them hang around. But going into Monday the Cardinals were trailing three teams: the Padres, Reds and Phillies. And the Mets, who have won seven of their last eight, are suddenly one game behind the Cardinals.

After a seven-game homestand against the Dodgers and Reds, the Cardinals will travel to Citi Field for a three-game series vs. the Mets. Beginning today, the Cardinals’ remaining opponents have a 74-62 record. Only the Padres have a more difficult schedule among the No. 2 wild-card contenders. The Phillies and Reds each have a remaining slate of games that puts them against opponents with an average record of 61-75.

The Cardinals can’t afford to keep giving games away.

I don’t think anyone has to say that on Sept. 9, but around this place you can’t be so sure.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

The weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Bernie and Will Leitch is available at 590thefan.com

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.