THE REDBIRD REVIEW
The Cardinals are a .500 team and have a little more than a month to go to before finalizing their second consecutive disappointing season. This is more palatable than last season’s 71-91 mess, but that provides little consolation.
And .500 is their neighborhood.
This is where the Redbirds live.
Home address: 500 Mediocre Avenue, St. Louis MO, 63102.
In August the Cardinals never have been higher than three games above .500 and haven’t plummeted lower than three below .500. It is a predictable pattern by a predictable team that is beset by the predictable problems. An offense that shrinks and disappears with runners in scoring position. A starting rotation that has a 5.01 ERA (26th) since the start of July.
The 2024 Cardinals do enough to prevent themselves from slipping into the abyss … and don’t do enough to move into the role of a relevant postseason contender. At 67-67, they have settled into that gray area that separates good and bad. The Cardinals aren’t horrifically bad … but not good.
I’m not someone who sits at the keyboard and thinks about something like this: Gee, I’ve been hard on the Cardinals, really ripping them, so now I better scrounge around and find something nice to say about them.
No, that’s not me. If they are playing well, I write accordingly. When they are flopping and skidding, I write accordingly. I don’t have quotas for polite columns, or for negative columns. I never want to pretend that everything about them STINKS just because the Cardinals have struggled this year. And I never want to pretend that everything is OUTSTANDING just because the Cardinals put together a fine flurry of victories.
A friend texted me the other day with this question: “Hey, this season has been hard to watch for a lot of reasons, and I’m tired of them, just like a lot of fans are. But will there be any positive takeaways?”
We exchanged some thoughts on this. Yes. Of course. There are positives to pull out of the wreckage. This is my list, and it’s based on player performance. Ownership, front office plus manager and coaches are in a separate category. There is plenty of time to do those nifty postseason report cards.
For now, my focus is on the players who have separated themselves from the pack in a good way. And I’m focusing on younger players who hadn’t really established themselves before the 2024 campaign …
1. Masyn Winn: I wrote about the rookie shortstop yesterday and expressed my admiration for the way he’s played offensively and defensively this season. I’m always happy to praise Winn. His poise, maturity and intelligence are off the charts. He won’t turn 23 until next March. Rather than run a lot of stats by you – I did that Thursday – I’ll enter this into the file:
According to the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement, Winn has provided more value than any rookie in the majors.
Mawyn’s 4.1 WAR is ahead of Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, who ranks second with 3.6 WAR. Among rookies, Winn is the highest-rated player defensively and No. 2 offensively.
Among Cardinal position players that have played at least 100 games this season, Winn has contributed the most value according to Baseball Reference WAR. And it isn’t even close: Winn at 4.8 wins, and Nolan Arenado second with 2.0 wins.
Win should be getting more recognition as a short-list NL Rookie of the Year candidate. Merrill does have more WAR than Winn in the FanGraphs version, but only by a difference of a half-win margin.
Winn is the obvious choice as the Cardinals MVP for 2024.
2. Alec Burleson: the big guy has plugged his power in this season, and it’s made him a different hitter. In his second full season, Burleson leads the Cardinals with 21 home runs and 72 RBIs. Compared to 22, Burly’s batting average is up 35 points, his slugging percentage is up 66 points, his OPS is up 82 points, and there’s a plus 25 percent gain in adjusted OPS.
3. Andre Pallante: Since entering the rotation on May 29, the third-year righthander leads St. Louis starters with a 3.50 ERA. In his second start of the season, Pallante was strafed for six runs in three rough innings. Since that low point, Pallante has a 3.19 ERA in 13 starts, and that’s considerably better than Sonny Gray’s 4.50 ERA over the same span of time. Pallante isn’t dominating and overpowering. But he makes pitches, gets bushels of ground balls, competes with a hard edge, keeps the ball in the yard, and is equally effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters. He’ll be 26 at the start of the 2025 season and should be near the front of the line for a spot in a (hopefully) revamped rotation.
4. Michael Siani: because of injuries, the Cardinals turned to Siani out of desperation and made him their center fielder. The rookie’s defense has been superb; he is well above above average in every metric. He saved some runs for the pitching staff until being sidelined with an oblique strain on Aug. 3. (Should be back soon.) No one expected much offensively from Siani, but over his last 31 games before going on the IL he batted .354 with a .391 onbase percentage and .415 slug. With his elite defense, that’s a helluva bonus. Siani’s baserunning skills are excellent, and even with the missed time he leads the team with 14 steals and a success rate of 82.3 percent.
5. Victor Scott: I’m sticking with the center fielders. And another rookie makes the list. Scott, 23, has looked like a different player since being promoted from Triple A Memphis to take over for Siani. In his MLB debut, Scott was clearly overwhelmed when plugged in ahead of schedule at the at the start of the season to fill an injury shortfall. But after a slow start, Scott has come along nicely. He’s batted .254 with a .418 slug since being recalled. And in his last eight games, Scott has pounded to a .385 average and 1.014 OPS and has made some spectacular plays. Just getting better and better. He’s definitely a factor for 2025.
6. Ryan Fernandez. Another rookie find, via the Rule V draft. In his first big-league season after being recommended to the Cardinals by consultant Chaim Bloom, Fernandez emerged as a nice surprise in the Cards bullpen. Gradually taking on more innings and higher–leverage situations, the righty has a 3.38 ERA in 50 appearances. He’s tired out a bit, and needs to reduce his walk rate going forward. But Fernandez has a nasty slider that’s locked opponents into a .157 average, a 40 percent whiff-swing rate, and 37 strikeouts in 102 at-bats. He should be a big part of next season’s ‘pen.
7. Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera. The Cardinals needed reserve strength at the catcher position because of injuries to starting catcher Willson Contreras, who is also used at DH. The rookies have supplied solid depth.
Pages, 25, is challenged offensively but has delivered some big hits along the way. (Ask the Cubs.) Pages is above-average defensively and handles pitchers with advanced maturity. His caught-stealing rate (21%) is above the league average for catchers. Pages has a 3.96 catcher ERA that’s the best among Cards catchers this season. And St. Louis is 22-20 this season when Pages starts at catcher.
Herrera, 24, needs work defensively and is determined to improve. He has a great attitude. And when the Cardinals lost Contreras to a broken arm in early May, Herrera answered the call by hitting .318 with a .770 OPS until Contreras returned. Including his DH games, the Cards are 25-24 with Herrera in the lineup. The two rookie catchers have helped the Cardinals this season and are worthy of praise.
8. Matthew Liberatore: the lefty pitcher is still only 24. And when the Cardinals have actually stopped messing with him, Libby has done a good job as a reliever. He has a fine 3.22 ERA overall, and has been solid against right-handed batters. In facing 176 LH hitters as a reliever this season, Liberatore has held them to a .176 average, has a 26 percent strikeout rate, and limited walks to 3.4 percent. Liberatore may not turn out to be the effective starting pitcher the Cardinals envisioned, but he should be appreciated for his work as a reliever. If anything he should have a more prominent role in ’25.
Thanks for reading …
I’ll have another column for you late this afternoon …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
