Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Add Quality And Depth To Their Starting Rotation, But There’s Still Work To Do.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here’s my sort of, but not really “Instant Reaction” to the Cardinals’ move to barter Tommy Edman in a three-team trade that brought them right-handed starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham — stream of consciousness style. My goal here is to give you a deep-dive look at Fedde and some other aspects of the trade. Some of the good stuff is located in the bottom half of the column, so please read on. And I’ll write about Pham in a separate piece. Thank you.

1. Nice work by president of baseball ops John Mozeliak and the front-office crew. Fedde, 31, is a good starter who should provide more stability and protection for a rotation that’s been sliding in recent weeks. This should help them reach the playoffs, but I’m not sure it makes them a more menacing factor should they get into the postseason tournament. I’m up on the trade, absolutely  … but some reality has to be mixed into the cheerleading. It was a good trade. But it will take a while to assess the real impact, at least for 2024.

1a. Oh, and the Cardinals need to add a reliever that can handle high-leverage assignments. And if the front office doesn’t get that done, the Cardinals will be more vulnerable in these low-scoring, tight-margin games. Again, I like this trade. Pham is a bonus. And they need his right-handed bat and his track record against LH pitching. The Cardinals accomplished by trading a player, Edman, who wasn’t essential to them going forward. They also gave up a very young pitching prospect who is an unknown at this point. So there’s so much to like about this transaction. But … it’s probably a good idea for the front office to resist the idea of taking a victory lap. Making the playoffs is necessary. But winning in the playoffs is something the Cardinals have failed to do since 2019. The Cardinals needed three additions: starter, reliever, right-handed bat. They’ve gone 2 for 3 on that check list. And they need to go 3 for 3. Good grief, they’ve saved some money in this Edman-Fedde-Pham transaction. And they didn’t have to give up anything close to a premium-caliber prospect. So there’s room — and an obvious need — for another move.

2. This was a pragmatic trade – the kind that Mozeliak and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. strongly prefer. Edman was a respected but expendable position player who is coming off an injury, has a history of getting banged up, and is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season. The Cardinals would have paid Edman $9.4 million (guaranteed) next season. Instead they’ll pay Fedde what he’s owed for the remainder of this season ($2.5 million) plus his $7.5 million salary in 2025.

3. This was more of a Jordan Montgomery-type trade than a Jon Lester-type trade. Fedde has a year beyond the current season left on his contract – just as Monty did when he came over from the Yankees in 2022 – and isn’t a rental. When Mozeliak made the trades for starters Lester and J.A. Happ in 2021, both were short-term rentals brought in to handle an emergency. Jose Quintana (2022 trade) was also a rental. But knowing that they would have Fedde at least through 2025 added appeal to the deal.

4. I’ll get deeper into Fedde’s 2024 pitching profile later, but here’s what he does best: ground balls, lots of soft-medium contact, keeps the ball in the yard, and averages a healthy 5.8 innings per start.

5. If we take Fedde’s statistics with the White Sox this season and drop them into the St. Louis rotation to compare him to what the Cardinals already have, here’s what we find …

– Fedde would rank first in ERA (3.11)
– First in strikeout rate (21.5)
– Second in fielding independent ERA (3.76)
– Second in fWAR (2.7) to Sonny Gray
– Second in innings to Miles Mikolas
– Second in quality starts (10) to Mikolas
– Third in walk rate (6.8%)

6. It’s important to understand what to expect from Fedde. So we’ll note what he isn’t: a dominating, strikeout puncher with heavy swing-and-miss nastiness. As I mentioned, his current 21.5 percent strikeout rate would be the best among St. Louis starters, but it’s slightly below the overall MLB rate for starters. But he doesn’t walk many guys, and allows 1.04 homers per nine innings – which is better than the MLB average.

7. Here’s a realistic assessment from the highly respected Eno Sarris, who can explain a pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses better than anyone in the baseball-analysis media business:

“Fedde may be a great help getting the Cardinals to the postseason, but he might also have a lot more in common with current back-end Cardinals starters than fans in St. Louis would like to hear,” wrote Sarris, who writes for The Athletic.

8. Sarris adds that Fedde’s fastball is still below average but he’s made it better with more “cut” and velocity. And he’s enhanced the sinking action on his two-seamer. His changeup is a more effective pitch now.

9. More than anything, Fedde came home from the KBO (Korean League) with a devilish sweeper pitch that’s done wonders for his overall performance. Here’s what you should know about the sweeper: Fedde hardly ever uses it against left-handed hitters, so the stats are irrelevant. But it’s become a real asset when he throws it (often) in matchups against right-handed batters. This season RH hitters are batting .151 with a .256 slugging percentage against Fedde’s sweeper. Not only that, but his sweeper gets a 29% whiff-swing rate against right-handed hitters and limited them to a low 20.3 percent hard-hit rate.

10. OK, so how does Fedde counter the platoon-split advantage presented by of left-handed batters? Answer: changeup and sinker.

11. Fedde’s cut fastball has a positive run value, but seems vulnerable to me. At least if we’re going by the numbers. This season RH batters have hit .293 with a .463 slug against it. LH batters have a .247 average and .454 slug. And left-side swingers have popped Fedde’s cutter for five homers and five doubles. He throws the cutter a lot. Will that change with his new team?

12. Fedde doesn’t get hitters to chase many pitchers – except for the sweeper. And when Fedde entices opponents to lunge at the high-movement sweeper out of the strike zone, here’s what they’ve done: 5 for 39, a .128 average, .205 slugging percentage, 38 percent strikeout rate, and 45.3% whiff-swing rate. When right-handed batters chase the Fedde sweeper out of the zone they’ve hit .108 with a 37.5% strikeout rate and 47.2% whiff-swing rate.

13. Fedde will love pitching in front of Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn. This season White Sox shortstops were a horrendous minus 14 below average in defensive runs saved. Winn leads all MLB shortstops with +12 defensive runs saved. That’s a difference of 26 runs saved! Fedde has a ground-ball rate of 45 percent. That should get him a lot of double-play grounder possibilities and he’s coming to the right place. The Cardinals rank second in the majors with 106 double plays turned and finished. The White Sox are 26th with only 65 double-play grounders turned and completed. Big, big change for Fedde.

14. Come to think of it, Fedde will enjoy the overall quality and security provided by the St. Louis defense. The White Sox are unspeakably bad on defense, ranking at the bottom of the majors with a minus 54 defensive runs saved below average. And what about center field? Michael Siani ranks second in the majors with 13 outs above average when patrolling CF. White Sox center fielder Luis Robert is tied for 25th at the position with two outs above average. When Fedde got traded – he also traded up defensively.

15. Oh, and of course, it’s got to be uplifting for Fedde to leave the worst team in the majors, the 27-81 White Sox, and join a Cardinals team that’s at least average (54-51) and in contention for a postseason spot.

16. OK, I’m assuming Andre Pallante will come out of the rotation to make room for Fedde. Which is interesting to me. I wrote about this recently … here are the starting-pitching ERAs since Pallante joined the rotation on May 29:

• Pallante 3.42
• Mikolas 4.41
• Gibson, 4.47
• Gray, 4.83
• Lynn, 5.11

The Cardinals are better off because they’ll have Fedde, and that should make them stronger if (when) some of their older starters wear down. (Is it already happening?) And certainly this move cushions the depth should the Cardinals get socked by a rotation injury or two. They’ll have more options, including Pallante. And by adding Fedde, the Redbirds don’t have to count on Injured List frequent flyer Steve Matz for rotation assistance. But are the Cardinals really a better team by removing the dude was the best ERA from their rotation if he’s better than some of the other starters that have not pitched as well? How does that give you an edge? Fedde is a positive addition … but the impact will be lessened if the Cardinals keep using the starters that have been on a downturn. Know what I mean? Are they really going to keep Pallante in the bullpen if he’s better than the guys that have shown signs of deterioration? Just asking. I don’t mean to interfere with the pep-squad cheering, but that’s my concern.

17. Another positive aspect of Fedde’s pitching is his effectiveness against hitters on both sides of the plate. Yes, he’s stronger against RH batters but the differences aren’t glaring.

* Against RH batters: .230 average, .273 OBP, .342 slug, 23.1 percent strikeout rate, 0.8 home runs per nine innings, 3.03 ERA.

* Against LH batters: .225 average, .289 OBP, .396 slug, 20.1% strikeout rate, 1.3 homers per nine innings, 3.18 ERA.

I probably missed something, but I’ll put a lid on this first look at Fedde and move onto the next column.  Next up, a quick analysis on the STL homecoming of Tommy Pham. I’m getting to work on that in a few minutes.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.