Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Are On A Roll And Beating Good Teams. Nice. But Why Did It Take So Long?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals are mystifying. They really are. After slogging to a miserable 5-12 record in their first 17 games of August to severely damage their wild-card chances, the Redbirds are suddenly stacking wins against some of the best teams in the majors.

The Cards 8-4 in their last 12 games. Their eight victories have been earned against the Brewers, Twins, Padres and Yankees. Let’s stretch this out a little. The Cardinals also had a win over the Dodgers on Aug. 17, so their last nine happy days at the ballpark have come against six opponents that all rank among the top 10 in MLB in winning percentage.

During this turnabout, the Cardinals have grinded to series wins over the Brewers, Twins and Yankees. They also fought for an honorable split of the four-game set with the Padres after losing the first two.

“They’re not going to give in,” manager Oliver Marmol told Derrick Goold and other reporters at Yankee Stadium after Sunday’s 14-run, 21-hit eruption to escape from the Bronx after capturing the series. “This was an important series, no different than the last one we just played, no different than the last one, the last one and the one we’re about to play.

“They’re going to show up every day with one thing on their mind. It’s: How do we win today? And if it goes our way, great. And if it doesn’t, we show up the next day. How do we win today? And we’re going to do that all the way to the end. When you look at the style of play right now, it’s a good one.”

Hold on a minute.

I’m going to stick with my policy of praising the Cardinals when they perform well, and have success. So I’ve been impressed by this 8-4 run against Milwaukee, Minnesota, San Diego and New York. We’ve seen some really good stuff over the last 12 games, and I’ll get into that in a bit.

OK, so I’ve complimented the Cardinals for their recent positive outcomes. But where has this been?

Why did the Cardinals take so long to kick in, ignite the offense, take smarter at-bats, deliver a bunch of timely hits, and compete with full-on urgency? If the Redbirds are capable of handling a rugged tract of games with admirable workmanship and professionalism, I don’t understand the discouraging bog of losses in the first 2 and ½ weeks of August.

After acquiring starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Cardinals won two in a row over Texas, outscoring the Rangers 18-2 in the two beatdowns. That closed a 13-12 July, and the Cardinals looked like a team that had a charge left in them.

That sunny view faded from the horizon during the 7-12 August swoon. The two straight wins over Texas was an exception, but the downturn actually began on July 22. From that point through Aug. 18, the Cardinals lost 17 of 26 games.

As their 2024 season began to slip away, the Cardinals were slapped down to a 3-10 record against the Pirates, Nationals, Cubs and Reds. The Cardinals had a better record than all four opponents at the start of each series but fell apart.

After defeating the Braves on July 21 for a series victory, the Cardinals were 52-47 and via Fangraphs had a 47.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. All in all, they appeared to be in decent shape to stay in the race and emerge with a wild card in hand.

And then 9-17 happened in the next 26 games. After the collapse, their postseason probability was down to 2.1 percent. I’ll repeat this: after losing so many games to teams that had a lower winning percentage than they did at the time, the Cardinals’ possibility of reaching the postseason went from 47.6% to 2.1%. That’s a horrendous drop of 45.5 percent. And they have themselves to blame for this dreadful reduction in the postseason odds.

We saw this type of thing earlier in the season. The Cardinals went 5-1 in consecutive series against Boston and Baltimore. Next, they lost two straight series to Houston and Philadelphia, but played those two teams tough and were 7-5 over the 12 games. We watched the Cardinals win two series from the Braves. And so on.

The Cards seem to have an extra spark when playing good teams. Though they have a losing record (39-44) vs. winning opponents this season, their .469 win percentage in those games is the 13th best in the majors. And while the Cards’ winning percentage (.555) against losing teams might look good to you – it isn’t. That .555 vs. losing sides ranks 23rd in the majors.

So relative to the quality of the opponent, the Cardinals have actually done better against winning teams than losing teams in the major-league rankings.

That’s unacceptable.

The Cardinals deserve an attaboy for knocking down good teams over the last 12 games. But that 8-4 mark hasn’t enhanced their postseason hopes. As the Cardinals go into the three-game series at Milwaukee, they’re still five games out of the third wild card slot. And their postseason probability is a puny 1.7 percent according to Fangraphs, and 1.2% via Baseball Prospectus.

The Cards have only 25 games to work with on the remaining schedule. This enigmatic ballclub is in a dire situation because of the failure to forcefully take care of business against the more beatable teams. Sad.

THE BEST PART ABOUT 8-4: In taking eight of the last 12 games the Cardinals have been led offensively by their younger hitters, and that’s what the team and the fans want to see.

I’m referring to eight hitters: Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, Brendan Donovan and Ivan Herrera.

In the 12 games the eight hitters have combined for a .299 average with positive numbers in onbase percentage and slugging. Seven of the eight hitters have performed 18 percent above league average offensively or higher based on park and league adjusted runs created (wRC+).

During the 8-4 gallop these eight hitters have: hit eight of the team’s 11 home runs, have 29 of the 41 extra-base hits, scored 45 of the 62 runs, and delivered 40 of the 59 RBIs.

In addition, the group of eight have excelled when hitting with runners in scoring position over the past eight games – collectively batting .305 with four homers, 35 RBIs and 40 runs scored in only 82 at-bats.

WALKER AWAKENING: Kudos to Jordan Walker for his Sunday spree that featured five hits, three RBIs, his first big-league home run in 2024, and his first stolen base. Nice day! Here’s a terrific note from Hall of Fame baseball writer Rob Rains: Walker became the first Cardinal to have a five-hit day since Stan Musial on July 21, 1943. The Man was also 22 years old when he did it.

LUKEN SKY WALKER: During the 8-4 stretch the big’un has only batted .167 but there’s a lot more to it than that. Baker has an amazing walk rate of 27 percent over this time, giving him a .385 onbase percentage (and .556 slug) since Aug. 21. In addition Baker has two homers and seven RBIs in eight at-bats with runners in scoring position. Well done, sir.

IS NOOT LOCKED IN? It’s too soon to know for sure, but it’s looking that way. During STL’s 8-4 run Nootbaar leads the Cardinals with 10 RBIs, has six extra-base hits and is slugging .468. Nootbaar’s three-run double in the seventh inning broke a 7-7 tie and lifted the Cardinals to a 10-7 lead. He also lofted a two-run homer in the ninth for a five-RBI afternoon. So a lot of Noot’s damage in the last 12 games came Sunday at Yankee Stadium, but the Cardinals will take it. They’re a better offense when Nootbaar is in form offensively.

By the way: Walker and Nootbaar collectively went 8 for 10 with two HRs and eight runs knocked in during Sunday’s conquest of the Yankees.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE RISP: The subject has been beaten to a pulp this season – and for good reason, because the Cardinals certainly have cost themselves several wins (at least) with their chronic failures to come up big with runners in scoring position. Here’s an illustration of how the RISP fortunes – good or bad – impact the Cardinals.

RISP, during the 5-12 start to August: 18 hits in 119 at-bats, .151 average, four extra-base hits (no homers), a .424 OPS, five ground-ball double plays. The Cardinals averaged 3.3 runs over the 17 games.

RISP, during the 8-4 heat-up: 33 hits in 119 at-bats (.277) with 13 extra base hits (five homers), a .471 slug and .850 OPS. And only one double-play grounder. The Redbirds averaged 5.16 runs over the last 12 games.

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT: NOT LOOKING OLD. In his last eight games the proud first baseman is 16 for 30 (.533) with six doubles, a homer and .833 slugging percentage.

NOLAN ARENADO’S CLUTCHINESS: The third baseman has done his part to help the Cardinals win eight of the last 12 by batting .308 with seven RBIs when stepping up with runners in scoring position.

THREE NOTES ON ST. LOUIS PITCHING

1. The Cardinals have a 4.08 starting-pitcher ERA during the 8-4 streak. That includes a 2.13 ERA in two starts by Andre Pallante, who pitches Monday’s opener at Milwaukee. The starters have had some poor batted-ball luck over the last 12 games – as reflected by their 3.88 fielding independent ERA over that span.

2. The Cardinals bullpen has gotten bopped around for a 4.19 ERA in the 8-4 stretch, with an 11 percent walk rate being a primary source of the problem. But Ryan Helsley has been very good during this 12-game period, playing a direct role in the team’s eight wins. Helsley hasn’t allowed a run in six innings, and he’s been credited with two wins and five saves.

Helsley leads the majors with 42 saves this season and his save success rate (93%) is tied for second in the majors among closers that have at least 30 save opportunities. With 25 games to go, Helsley has a shot at setting a new franchise record for most saves in a season.

Here’s the leaderboard:

– Trevor Rosenthal, 48 in 2015
– Jason Isringhausen, 47 in 2004
– Lee Smith, 47 in 1991
– Trevor Rosenthal, 45 in 2014
– Bruce Sutter, 45 in 1984
– Lee Smith, 43 in 1993
– Lee Smith, 43 in 1992
– Ryan Helsley, 42 in 2024
– Jason Motte, 42 in 2012

I have to say: Lee Smith rolling up 133 saves over three years for Cardinals teams that didn’t win more than 87 games in a campaign is pretty damn impressive.

3. During the 8-4 upturn the Cardinals were 6-0 when leading after seven innings, 5-0 when winning through eight innings, and went 1-0 in extra innings. For the season the Cards are 54-3 when leading through seven innings for a .947 winning percentage that ranks sixth overall and third in the National League. And when having a lead through eight innings, the Redbirds are 57-1 for a .983 winning percentage that’s No. 1 in the NL and tied for third overall. Even with some bumpy performances and an ERA that’s inflating, the St. Louis bullpen is on the short list of the MLB’s most reliable teams at defending late leads.

Thanks for taking the time to read this on Labor Day …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.