Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Finally Played Desperate Baseball To Come Back And Beat The Brewers.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Wednesday evening at Busch Stadium, the St. Louis Cardinals competed with urgency and tenacity in a way that made them endearing and fun to watch. And the effort pushed them to outlast the first-place Brewers for a 10-6 victory in 10 innings.

Obviously, this kind of thing hasn’t happened enough in 2024, and the impact of the failure has visual proof in the large number of empty seats at the home ballyard.

The Redbirds have sapped the energy and dulled the enthusiasm of their fans on too many days and nights. It’s been a strange season, broken into three distinct sections so far.

1. The Cardinals started off the season by going 15-24 for a .385 winning percentage that ranked 13th among the 15 National League teams.

2. Beginning May 12, the Cards turned into a different team, winning 33 of the next 51 games for a .647 winning percentage that was No. 1 in the NL over that time.

3. Ah. But since their 33-18 surge stalled, the Cardinals are 14-22 for a .389 winning percentage that’s tied with Miami for the worst in the NL since July 10. And in the majors, only the White Sox have been a more depressing loser (5-30!) than the Cardinals in the aftermath of the only STL fun run of the season.

My philosophy has always been to praise when warranted and criticize when warranted. And just because the Cardinals have spent most of August in a state of grogginess, I see no reason to withhold appreciation for the game we watched last night. The Cardinals have a 62-64 record and are still a longshot horse in the wild-card race. I know this. I write about this. I write about all of the bad stuff on a frequent basis. But I enjoyed this 10-6 win and wanted to write about that, too.

The boys put on a good show in overcoming two late deficits to upset the Brewers. The Cardinals had a 2-0 lead and gave it up. They fell behind 4-2 and tied it 4-4 on a pinch-hit, two-run homer by the new arrival Luken Baker. The Brewers rebounded to reclaim a 6-4 lead in the eighth, but the Cardinals worked counts and drew walks to rally and even the score in the ninth … then broke the Brewers to win it on a dramatic swing by Nolan Arenado that produced a theatrical, walk-off grand-slam home run. Now, that’s how to set off fireworks.

I have one complaint: the Cardinals needed to do something like this more often this season. This was only their third win of the season when trailing after eight innings. The time is winding down on the season. If the Cardinals want to fight back and make a late charge, we’ll have to see a string of big wins against good teams in a brutish remaining schedule.

The Cardinals can’t wish for hope. They can’t just talk about still having a chance to make the playoffs. They have to prove it by doing it. They have to go get it. If the Redbirds lose Thursday’s day game and drop the series to Milwaukee, then Wednesday’s encouraging comeback will be reduced to noisy nothingness.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals (62-64) are 6-12 in August, 8-12 since the trade deadline, and 2-7 in the last nine games. But they’re also 2-2 in the last four … with Wednesday’s wild win, the Cardinals are 11 games behind division-leading Milwaukee. The Redbirds moved back into second place in the NL Central, a half-game above the Cubs and Reds … the Cardinals gained ground on the wild-card track and now trail No. 3 seed Atlanta by five games. But the Cardinals can’t set sight on the Braves without moving ahead of the Giants and Mets.

PLAYOFF ODDS: Beating the Brewers did little to increase the Cards’ chances of making the playoffs. According to FanGraphs, St. Louis has a 2.7 percent shot at a wild-card permit, and a 3.1% probability of wandering into the postseason. FanGraphs projects the Cardinals to go 18-18 over the final 36 games for a final record of 80-82.

NOLAN ARENADO: He’s been collecting a lot of hits, but without generating much power. The third baseman did both on Wednesday, cranking out three hits including the winning grand-salami. Since July 31, Arenado’s .329 batting average is tied for ninth among NL regulars. And he has a .518 slug with five doubles and three homers and a .900 OPS over his last 26 games.

In August, Arenado leads the Cardinals in batting average (.319), onbase percentage (.373), slugging (.522), OPS (.895) and RBIs (14). And his wRC+ for the month puts him 51 percent above league average offensively.

THE TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE: To fire off the winning rocket, Arenado crushed a juicy 1-2 curveball flipped by Brewers right-hander Trevor Megill. This season Arenado has a .294 batting average and .706 slugging percentage when putting a curve in play. Megill has a pretty good curve this season but Arenado was on it at the right time last night.

BAKER: HOME-RUN MAKER: In his first game with the Cardinals this season, Luken Baker announced himself by clubbing the tying two-run shot in the seventh. Nice move by Cards manager Oli Marmol to send Baker in to pinch hit. Baker, who bats from the right side, had destroyed left-handed pitching for 14 home runs and a .727 slugging percentage at Triple A this season. Baker hit three home runs in his 35 games with the Cardinals last season but slugged only .209. The shot off lefty Brewers reliever Bryan Hudson was Baker’s first career big-league homer against a LH pitcher. Baker slammed 126 home runs in 576 minor-league games in the St. Louis system, but that power hasn’t really surfaced during his 34-game MLB audition. Wednesday’s home run was hugely important in the win; perhaps that will get Baker going.

GETTING IT DONE IN THE NINTH: The Cardinals put up some great at-bats in the ninth inning to carry the game into extra innings. Most notable was a double by Jose Fermin and walks by Lars Nootbaar, Matt Carpenter and Tommy Pham. The consecutive walks by Carpenter and Pham delivered the two runs that erased a 6-4 deficit. I like the guys who got it done. Fermin was just recalled from Memphis and made an immediate impact. Nootbaar has struggled this season but it’s a good sign when he coaxes a walk. And then you had Carpenter and Pham, two former Cardinals who reunited with the team this year. Carpenter was signed as a free agent and Pham was acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline. It’s a little extra special when these two guys – who love being Cardinals – come through.

GETTING TO DEVIN WILLIAMS: When healthy, Williams is arguably the best closer in the majors. The native St. Louisan went after the Cardinals in each of the first two games of the series, and the Redbirds unexpectedly got the best of him. In 1 and ⅔ innings over the two games, Williams was touched for three hits, walked four Cardinals, and allowed two earned runs for a 10.80 ERA. That’s rare for Williams. His control was off Wednesday night, but Nootbaar, Carpenter and Pham stayed disciplined, didn’t chase pitches, and prevailed in the tough matchup by drawing crucial walks.

KYLE GIBSON: He kept the Cardinals in the game by competing well through 5 and ⅓ innings. The right-hander gave up seven hits and two walks but limited the damage to two runs. Gibson helped himself by striking out five Brewers, and lowered his ERA to 4.22.

RYAN HELSLEY: He handled the top of the 10th inning and stranded the designated Manfred Man runner at second base by getting two strikeouts and a ground out. The Cardinals erupted for four runs in the bottom half of the inning and Helsley earned the victory. He now has five wins and leads the majors with 38 saves. Helsley hasn’t allowed a run in his last four appearances, and struck out 33.3 percent of his batters faced in four innings. With either a save or an official win, Helsley has played a direct role in 69 percent of STL’s 62 wins this season.

NEXT ON THE SKED, TODAY: Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta opposes Miles Mikolas. First pitch scheduled for 1:15 pm STL time. It’s imperative for Mikolas to do better and give his team a chance to win the series. Mikolas has a 6.71 ERA in his last 10 starts and a 5.41 ERA for the season. St. Louis hitters will have to do something with Peralta’s four-seam fastball. This season the Cards are 7 for 30 against the pitch (.233) with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.