Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Have Problems But Are Doing Enough Things Right To Remain Relevant.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here’s the thing about the Cardinals …

They have defects. Cracks. Concerns. Injuries. Holes in the roster. A destitute bench. Insufficient starting-pitching depth. They squander RBI opportunities and abandon too many runners on base. Their overall defense this season is good, but there’s an annoying tendency to goof up and donate too many unearned runs to appreciative opponents.

Here’s another thing about the Cardinals …

Despite their flaws and frustrating ways, the Redbirds are tied with the Phillies for the National League’s best record (18-10) since May 12. Since that day, only the Yankees and Guardians have a better winning percentage than St. Louis.

Baseball can be mystifying. The math doesn’t always add up. The calculations – and our expectations and brains – get scrambled. This is a St. Louis team that can lose a home series to the White Sox (18-52) in early May, sweep the mighty Orioles (45-23) at Busch Stadium in the third week of May, and then split a four-game series with the pathetic Rockies (24-44) on the next homestand.

Go figure. Yes. That’s the familiar expression. But it is true; we can’t figure these Cardinals out. And while all wins count the same, the Cards are an ordinary 22-19 this season against teams with losing records.

The Cardinals have a split personality. The Cardinals were nine games under .500 before moving forward on May 12, and are eight games over .500 since then. The starting rotation was supposed to be OK, decent, solid, etc. But over the past three weeks or so, the rotation has emerged as a primary strength. Coming into the season, improvement was in the forecast for the Cardinal bullpen, but their relievers have done an outstanding job.

The offense was supposed to be the one area the Cardinals could count on – but that really hasn’t been the case. Heading into the weekend series at Wrigley Field, St. Louis ranks 14th among 15 NL teams in runs scored per game.

And yet …

During STL’s 18-10 advancement, the Cardinals are 2nd in the NL in batting average, 2nd in slugging percentage, 2nd in home runs, tied for 2nd in OPS and 2nd in wRC+ at 15 percent above league average offensively. The Cards have averaged 4.67 runs per game during this 28-game stretch, and all of this has been done without catcher Willson Contreras, who had a .398 OBP and .551 slug when he went down with a broken forearm on May 7.

In going 18-10, the Cardinals rank 4th in the NL in overall ERA (3.61). Over the last 23 games, only Philadelaphia’s starting pitchers have a lower ERA (2.89) among NL teams than the Cardinals (3.24.) And despite that recent plague of errors, the Cards are still +10 in defensive runs saved this season. That’s a net positive for me.

Do I trust this team? No. Can’t do it. I’d like to trust them, but not yet. First of all, they still have a losing record (33-34.) To earn more credibility, the Cardinals must get to .500 and stay there for more than a day. They have to reach .500 and then climb higher from there. And for the Cardinals to become more capable and less vulnerable, the front office must strengthen the roster with outside moves.

The Cardinals are 11-15 against opponents that have a .500 record or better and remain in the thick of an overcrowded wild-card race because of the NL’s chronic mediocrity.

The Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers and Braves have a combined .608 winning percentage. The other 11 NL clubs collectively own a .457 winning percentage.

Will the Cardinals assert themselves by breaking away from the wild-card pack? Can they rise up and chase down the first-place Brewers? Or will the Cards just fall down, break down, waste another year, and lose more fans and revenue?

This baffling ballclub has 29 games to go until the All-Star break, 46 days until the MLB trade deadline, and 95 games remaining on the regular–season schedule. I’m not a betting man, and that’s good. Because this is the kind of team that can lose money for both sets of gamblers. Those who doubt the Cardinals, and those who believe in the Cardinals.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT:  After a 2-5 downturn, the Cardinals have won four of their last six games, and are 5-3 in the last eight … they went 4-3 on the homestand against the Rockies and Pirates … after the series win over Pittsburgh the Cardinals have won 11 of their last 15 home games and are 17-15 at Busch Stadium this season … the Cardinals are 10-9 in one-run games this year, making them one of only 16 teams that have a winning record in one-run outcomes … after going 3-6 in their first nine one-run games this season, the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 contests decided by one run … so far in NL Central play, the Cardinals are 1-6 against the Brewers but have a 6-2 record against the Cubs, Pirates and Reds.

THE LABORS OF LANCE LYNN: He rolled through the first four innings against the Pirates on Thursday but ran into the metaphorical brick wall in the fifth inning. This is an ongoing struggle for Lynn, who failed to get through five innings for the third consecutive start. In his 14 starts this season, Lynn has pitched 6+ innings three times, thrown exactly five innings five times, and has lasted fewer than five innings six times.

Here are some revealing numbers:

* Lynn in the first four innings: 2.41 ERA, a yield of 0.5 home runs per nine innings, and an 8.1 percent walk rate.

* Lynn in the fifth inning: 10.24 ERA, a yield of 2.8 homers per nine innings, and a walk rate of 12.7 percent.

* In Lynn’s first four innings of his starts this season, opponents have batted .224 with a .619 OPS. In the fifth inning of his starts, opponents have hit .340 with a 1.043 OPS.

Even with Lynn’s abbreviated start Thursday, St. Louis starting pitchers have a 3.27 ERA and 27 percent strikeout rate in the last eight games.

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT GOES DEEP: Goldy’s two-run homer in the third inning gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead in Thursday’s 4-3 win over the Pirates.

* Goldy had four homers and slugged .311 in his first 48 games of the season.

* Since then he has four homers and a .478 slug in 17 games.

* In his first 48 games Goldschmidt homered every 47.5 at-bats. But in his last 17 games he’s hit a home run every 16.75 at-bats. Big difference.

NOLAN GORMAN, DEEP-FREEZING: After crushing four home runs in three games (June 2-4) earlier this month, the young slugger has cooled down in a hurry. Gorman was 3 for his last 31 (.097) through Thursday with a homer and 11 strikeouts. His inconsistency has surfaced again. By the way, Gorman is 7 for 52 (.135) this season with runners in scoring position. And his strikeout rate in RISP situations is 38 percent. In Gorman’s last 36 games he’s 4 for 41 (.097) with 17 strikeouts in RISP opportunities.

BRENDAN DONOVAN’S HOMESTAND: He got at least one hit in all seven games against the Rockies and Pirates. In those seven games he batted .346 with a .393 onbase percentage and .500 slugging percentage. The surge has elevated his onbase rate for the year to .325, and his OPS+ is now above average for the season. On May 14 Donovan was batting .227 and his OPB had sunken to .306, which is well below his career standard. But in his last 22 games, Donovan is hitting .301 with a .363 OBP and .773 OPS. He’s back on the right track. Donovan’s solo homer in the 7th delivered the winning run Thursday. It was his Donny’s first home run since May 7.

MASYN WINN, AGAIN: He’s 11 for his last 33 (.333 average) with a double, triple, homer and .515 slugging percentage. And that dynamic defense. Is he good, or what? Winn is 25 percent above league average offensively this season per wRC+, and that ranks 5th among MLB shortstops that have at least 225 plate appearances.

THE BULLPEN RIDES TO THE RESCUE: Five relievers combined to pitch 4 and ⅔ innings after taking over when Lynn stalled. John King, Chris Roycroft, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez and Andrew Kittredge were up for the assignment.

+ King did give up a single that allowed two inherited runners to score after Lynn had loaded the bases. But it’s unreasonable to pick on King because he’s done a fantastic job for the Cardinals this season.

+ The 6-8 Roycroft hasn’t allowed a run in 5 and ⅓ innings over his last four appearances, and has struck out six of 18 batters faced (33.3%.) Roycroft has earned trust and looms as a more important bullpen asset going forward. He picked up his first major-league win Thursday.

+ In seven relief appearances since the Cardinals wisely returned Liberatore to the bullpen, he hasn’t been touched for a run, given up just one hit and struck out six batters in 6 and ⅓ innings.

+ Fernandez struck out the side in the eighth after Donovan had put the Cardinals ahead 4-3. The righthander has shut down opponents in his last six appearances, giving up no runs and four hits in 6 and ⅔ innings while striking out hitters at a rate of 28 percent. Fernadez has a nasty slider that’s cornered hitters for a .167 average and 43 percent strikeout rate. Fernandez ranks in the top 8 percent of pitchers in whiff rate, and does an excellent job of limiting hard contact. The Cardinals found a good one here, and advisor Chaim Bloom deserves a big thank you for recommending the rookie Fernandez as a candidate for selection in the Rule 5 draft.

+ After giving the Cardinals 18 holds this season – third highest in the majors – Kittredge bagged his first save of the season Thursday. For those who keep pointing out how the Cardinals gave up outfielder Richie Palacios for Kittredge last offseason – in an attempt to play “gotcha” with the front office – well, you might want to ease up on that. After a fast start at Tampa Bay, Palacios is batting .183 with one homer and a .474 OPS and 27 percent strikeout rate since May 5.

The St. Louis bullpen ranks second in the majors this season with a 78 percent success rate in saving games. And in the 7th-8th-9th innings Cards have a 3.12 ERA that ranks fourth overall and second to the Dodgers in the NL.

Thanks for reading …

Enjoy watching Cardinals-Cubs this afternoon.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.