Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Keep Rolling On, Winning Games In A Variety Of Ways.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

In the Cardinals’ 4-3 victory over Atlanta, the hot-as-the-STL-summer home team did a bunch of things we liked in rolling to their fourth straight win. Up front, the Cardinals were able to manufacture runs instead of rocketing pitches over the wall for home runs. The resourcefulness worked well, and that’s a plus for any offense. There was also a great start by Lance Lynn, terrific defense, timely hitting, impressive two-strike determination, and another close win. The Cardinals often win games the hard way, but at least they’re winning. And they’ve turned Busch Stadium into a tough yard for visiting teams. And on Monday night, the Cardinals won without Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT

1. Lance Lynn summoned the power of the beard in his return to form. Lynn was strong and efficient throughout his 6 and ⅔ innings, needing 88 pitches to bag 20 outs. The Braves managed only four hits and one run (via a solo homer.) Lynn did not walk a hitter and struck out five. This was an authoritative step forward for Lynn after he’d been smashed for 12 earned runs in 13 and ⅔ innings over his previous three starts. The outing was Lynn’s second longest of the season; he went seven innings in a win at Oakland on April 16.

2. Lynn attacked the strike zone – but also got the Braves to chase pitches outside the zone. This was an effective formula. His rate of throwing strikes (58%) was his second highest in a start this season. And the only time he did better than that was a long time ago, in that April 16 assignment in Oakland. Lynn lured the Braves into chasing 34.2 percent of his non-strikes. That was his second-best chase rate in a start this season. Lynn enticed the Marlins to chase 44.4% of the out-of-zone pitches on April 4.

3. Lynn’s four-seam fastball was outstanding against Atlanta (except for the solo homer, which was no big deal.) I believe Lynn changed some pitch-sequencing patterns. Candidly, I didn’t have time to do the proper research on that. But Lynn kept hitters off balance more than I’m used to seeing from him lately.

3a. Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson and Lynn have combined for a 3.34 ERA since May 12. And the St. Louis rotation ranks 9th in the majors for the best starting-pitching ERA (3.78) over that time.

4. St. Louis hitters had 11 hits in 32 at-bats for a .344 average in Monday’s win. Six of the 11 hits – and two RBIs – came on two-strike counts. The Cardinals were resolute on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches, going 4 for 12.

5. The Cardinals cashed in all four runs on four hits, after they’d made two outs in the third inning. When you’re getting two-out hits in two-out situations, it’s a good night at the plate. Granted, the Cardinals didn’t score after the third inning … but Braves pitchers get paid to do their jobs, too.

6. The small-ball aspect was there, with Brendan Donovan rushing off first base on what appeared to be an attempted steal of second base. But the actual motivation was setting a trap to draw a throw from Braves catcher Sean Murphy. It worked. Murphy came up throwing, and Nolan Gorman raced home from third base to give the Cardinals a 4-0 lead.

7. The Cardinals went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position, getting RBI singles from Willson Contreras (welcome back!), Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson. On the other side, Cardinal pitchers allowed one hit in six at-bats when Atlanta had runners in position to score.

8. Defense was an important plus in the St. Louis victory. The highlights were a rangy, sliding catch by center fielder Mike Siani and getting the dangerous Matt Olson a double play that began with first baseman Alec Burleson stepping on first then throwing to shortstop Masyn Winn who applied the tag at second base for the final out in the top of the fourth.

9. Burleson, Donovan and Siani were a combined 7 for 10 in this game with two runs scored and two runs batted in.

10. With the dubya, the Cardinals are now 25-13 since May 12, tops in the National League and third overall. They’ve won nine of their last 12 games. During the 25-13 romp, the Cardinals rank 12th in the majors in runs scored, and have the seventh-best team ERA at 3.55. The Cardinals are 13-9 in June, in large part because of their 3.45 team ERA that ranks fifth in the majors and third in the NL this month.

There were some things that I didn’t like on Monday, and I’ll explain …

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The win over ATL gave the Cardinals a 14-4 record at Busch Stadium since May 17. The St. Louis win over the Giants at Rickwood Field in Birmingham was officially listed as a home game, so the Cards are 15-4 in their last 19 home games … in winning 25 of their last 38 games, the Cardinals have outscored opponents by 22 runs. During their pitiful 15-24 start the Cardinals were outscored by 52 runs. So there’s been a dramatic shift in run differential since May 12.

WHAT’S UP WITH RYAN HELSLEY? Short answer: his four-seam fastball. Since May 25, Helsley has allowed eight earned runs in 13 innings for a 5.54 ERA. Before that, he had a 1.23 ERA in his first 22 relief appearances.

The thing that jumps out is Helsley’s 11 walks in 64 batters faced – a glaringly high walk rate of 17 percent. And over his last seven appearances, Helsley’s walk rate is an alarming 25 percent. He’s struggling to land the four-seam fastball in the strike zone.

No doubt here; the four-seam fastball is the problem. Since May 25, opponents are 7 for 21 (.333) against Helsley’s four-seamer with one home run. The worst part? His nine walks and only two strikeouts when using the four-seam during this turbulent stretch.

Because of the substantial increase in walks, 16 of 30 batters have reached base in plate appearances that end with Helsley firing the four-seamer. That’s a .555 onbase percentage. Most of the damage has been inflicted by left-handed hitters; since May 25 they’ve gone 5 for 9 with five walks and a homer on plate appearances that end on the four-seam.

Before May 25, opponents batted .229 (8 for 35) with only one walk when encountering Helsley’s four-seam fastball on the final pitch of a plate appearance. But the four-seam has gone haywire on him.

Helsley’s slider remains highly effective. Since May 25, hitters are 6 for 32 (.188) with 15 strikeouts and three walks when Helsley uses the slider on the final pitch of a plate appearance. But the four-seam fastball is at the root of Helsley’s slump, and that must change for him to get back in the groove.

On the plus side, even with his recent troubles Helsley hasn’t cost the Cardinals any wins. He’s converted 27 consecutive save opportunities including Monday’s win over the Braves. The Cardinals hung on for a tense 4-3 victory despite Helsley giving up two hits, two walks and two runs in the ninth.

THE THREE-HEADED MONSTER: That was the superb title put on high-leverage relievers Helsley, Jo Jo Romero and Andrew Kittredge by Cards shortstop Masyn Winn.

The monsters aren’t as snarly and are trending downward. It’s up to manager Oli Marmol, pitching coach Dusty Blake and the front office to decipher the meaning of it all. Will the Cardinals end up exploring the trade market for a high-leverage reliever?

Let’s take a look …

– Helsley: as mentioned, he had a 1.23 ERA and 4.8 percent walk rate through May 21. After that, he has a 5.54 ERA and a 17% walk rate.

– Kittredge: He had an 0.64 ERA and a 28.8 percent strikeout in his first 14 appearances of the season. In his last 22 appearances, Kittredge has a 4.79 ERA and 18.6 percent strikeout rate.

– Romero: In his first 27 appearances, the lefty had a 1.24 ERA and 26 percent strikeout rate. In his last eight appearances, JoJo has an 11.12 ERA in 5 and ⅔ innings with a 17.8% strikeout rate.

– Marmol has been preparing (and using) Ryan Fernandez in more critical situations. The same applies to lefties John King and Matthew Liberatore. Right-hander Kyle Leahy is earning trust. And Giovanny Gallegos has returned from the IL after rehabbing a shoulder impingement, but until he pitches (multiple times) it’s impossible to know if he’ll be effective. Other relievers could get into the mix including Adam Kloffenstein and Nick Robertson. Righty Keynan Middelton won’t pitch this season after undergoing forearm surgery. Righty Riley O’Brien (forearm) experienced another setback, so there’s no reason to expect him back (if at all) anytime soon.

The Cardinals bullpen has been a team strength all season. The three key relievers have been a driving force in STL’s 25-13 run and ability to protect late leads and win close games. But it’s reasonable to wonder: can this continue, or is there hardship ahead?

OVERACHIEVING CARDINALS? Based on run differential and other underlying factors the Cardinals have an expected record of 35-42. But in reality they’re five games better than that at 40-37. This team is overachieving, and I don’t see that as a negative. Manager Oli Marmol, his coaches and the players continue to extract extra wins, and they’ve been excellent in games decided by one or two runs (16-7) since their hot streak began May 12.

BRENDAN “DON’T CALL HIM RAY” DONOVAN: In his last 16 games, Donovan is batting .381 with a .400 onbase percentage and .619 slug and has three doubles, four homers and 13 RBIs. Donovan extended his hitting streak to eight games on Monday and is batting .441 with a .765 slug, three homers and 10 RBIs during his sizzler.

DURING THE 4-GAME WINNING STREAK: Donovan, Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson are a combined 24 for 46 (.522) with four homers, six doubles and 15 RBIs.

RYAN FERNANDEZ: Sure, he walks too many dudes and gets into jams. But he’s really good at escaping predicaments. In 12 appearances covering 13 and ⅓ innings since May 28, Fernandez has allowed one earned for an 0.68 ERA. Three inherited runners have scored on Fernandez over that time, but in the larger view that isn’t important.

Fernandez is an increasingly vital part of a bullpen crew that has sewn up 26 of 30 games for wins this season when the Cardinals lead after six innings, 33 of 35 games when they lead after seven innings, and all 36 leads when ahead through the eighth inning.

SUGGESTION BOX

Item No. 1: Here’s an unusual idea from Bleacher Report baseball writer Kerry Miller. “Maybe (the Cardinals) bring Tyler O’Neill back from Boston for a few months,” he wrote. I’ve respected Miller’s work for a long time, but I don’t see this one happening. When Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman both return from the IL the Cardinals will have an overcrowded outfield again – and that doesn’t even account for the possible promotion of struggling second-year right fielder Jordan Walker from Triple A Memphis. Walker, 22, is batting .264 with three homers and a modest .402 slug in 190 plate appearances for Memphis.

Item No. 2: Jim Bowden (The Athletic) pitched this idea last week, suggesting that the.Cardinals acquire right-handed starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the White Sox for lefty pitching prospect Cooper Hjerpe and righty pitching prospect Gordon Graceffo.

“The Cardinals seem committed to being buyers, not sellers at the trade deadline and their front office is focused on adding another veteran starter,” Bowden wrote. “Fedde fits what they’re looking for as another pitcher to put behind Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas and Lance Lynn in the rotation. The 31-year-old signed a two-year, $15 million deal with the White Sox in the offseason after pitching in South Korea last year. He was drafted in the first round by the Nationals in 2014 but hadn’t lived up to expectations until this year … the White Sox would control both pitching prospects for at least six more years while Fedde will be eligible for free agency after next season.”

Item No. 3: The always industrious Bowden was at it again Monday, proposing a trade that would send outfielder Dylan Carlson and Graceffo to the Angels for well traveled lefty starter Tyler Anderson.

“The Cardinals added three veteran starting pitchers in the offseason when they signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. They’re now focused on adding yet another veteran and targeting the Angels lefty seems like a logical fit,” Bowden wrote. “Anderson, 34, is having a strong season … Anderson has one more year remaining on the three-year, $39 million contract he signed with the Angels in 2023.

“In return, the Angels would receive Carlson, a 25-year-old who has never lived up to his promise, but a change of scenery might help him as it did for former Cardinals outfielders such as Adolis García and Randy Arozarena. Carlson is batting under .200 with a .509 OPS but the Angels would control him through 2026. They’d also land Graceffo, 24, who profiles as a solid mid-rotation starter.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has been writing columns and hosting live radio shows and podcasts in St. Louis since 1985. 

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For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via your favorite podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net, Baseball Prospectus and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.