Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Kept Moving Through The Hazards For A Solid 16-12 Record In June.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW 

The Cardinals put a capper on June with a 16-12 record for the month.

All in all, that’s pretty good.

The 16-12 certainly indicates progress and is the best June mark by a Cardinal team since 2015. June has been a tough month for St. Louis baseball. Not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020, the Cardinals have had only four winning Junes over the last 17 seasons.

So that’s why I believe his year’s 16-12 for June is pretty good. Not fabulous, not terrific, and not particularly exciting. But we could use other terms to describe their June. They were resilient. Stubborn. Determined. They were not slowed by adversity. They almost always summoned the necessary response in times of trouble.

The Cardinals regularly came up with wins that gave them a series triumph,  prevented a three-game sweep or the disappointment of losing a four-game set.

* In back-to-back series early in the month the Cardinals won the third game at Philadelphia and then Houston to avoid a three-game sweep.

* Twice in June, the Cardinals won the fourth game of a series against Colorado and Cincinnati to salvage a 2-2 series split instead of dropping three of four.

* In two straight series later in the month the Cards beat the Pirates and Cubs in the third game to clinch a 2-1 series victory.

* The Cardinals came home and did that to the Braves, winning the second game of a doubleheader to take the series, 2-1.

The Cardinals failed in only one of these scenarios, losing the third game at Miami on June 19. The winner of that game would also win the series, 2-1. So that was a setback for St. Louis. But in every other “must win” situation — to capture a series, salvage a four-game split or deny an opponent’s bid for a three-game sweep — the Cardinals went 7-0. That number was the difference between a pretty good month and a really bad month.

The boys rallied for a 12-4 record in their final 16 games of May, and had to keep winning in June instead of lapsing into a recession. It wasn’t easy, but they put  together a winning month.

On May 11 the Cardinals had wandered into deep poo with a 15-24 record. It looked grim. At that point the soundtrack would have been a Springsteen classic – “Darkness On The Edge Of Town.”

June was a Bee Gees song for the Cardinals: “Stayin’ Alive.”

The 16-12 June gave them more oxygen and was part of a pivotal dash to the NL’s best record (28-16) since May 12.

Yeah, I realize the 16-12 isn’t exactly rolling thunder. And their .571 June winning percentage was just the sixth best in the National League. But the NL had quite a few teams heat up in June, and the other side gets paid to win games. The Cardinals were fine, but five other teams were better. Not a big deal.

Before any of you go into a “Hey, Bernie, we gotta have a higher standard than this,” rant, I would respectfully encourage you to take a deep breath.

Thank you.

With heads properly cleared, please consider some of the things that could have blown up your Cardinals in June. The Cardinals didn’t allow that to happen, and in my book the 16-12 record was more than acceptable.

— The Cardinals were 27-28 at the end of May. And while they didn’t close any ground on the unrelenting first-place Brewers during June, the Cards raised their winning percentage from .490 to .518 during the month. After being outside of the NL wild-card trifecta after the first two months, the Cardinals moved into the No. 3 spot in June. Obviously, their hold is tenuous because the NL’s wild-card race is crowded and tight. A bad stretch of games can boot the Cardinals into a less favorable position. But the way the wild–card derby has gone so far, a lousy week won’t cause serious damage to the Cardinals (or any other contender) in this wild-card survivor game.

— The Cardinals were five games behind No. 1 wild-card occupant Atlanta at the end of May. They’ve reduced that to 3 and ½ games. In the NL Central standings the second-place Cardinals increased their lead over the Pirates, Reds and Cubs. The Cardinals are still 6 and ½ games behind the Brewers, but no other NL Central resident is closer than 9 and ½ games out of first. And the Cardinals

— The Cardinals had a winning month despite getting little from three expected “big gun” hitters. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman. Going into the season, I think most of us expected more reliable power from Gorman and above-average slugging – if not fearsome slugging – from Goldschmidt and Arenado. But the expectations were off.

— Goldschmidt batted .231 in June with a .272 onbase rate and .372 slugging percentage for a substandard .642 OPS. He had only seven extra-base hits for the month. Based on his wRC+, Goldy was 16 percent below league average offensively in June.

— Gorman went through an extreme downturn in June. He had six homers for the month but only two after June 4. In his final 24 games of the month, Gorman batted .083 with 37 strikeouts in 84 at-bats (44%). Gorman’s June onbase rate (.209) and slugging percentage (.323) were alarming. Gorman’s slugging percentage peaked at .508 on June 4 but dropped 185 points since then.

— Arenado hit for a solid average (.273) and actually finished a tick above league average offensively with his wRC+ for June. But Arenado had only two homers and eight RBIs for the month, and his slugging percentage hasn’t been above .400 since way back on April 17 (.403).

— For the month, Goldschmidt, Arenado and Gorman combined for just two hits in 28 at-bats with runners in scoring position (.071).

— Masyn Winn cooled in June. During the first two months the rookie shortstop batted .306 with a .346 OBP and .438 slug and struck out in only 15.6 percent of his plate appearances. Winn batted .255 in June. And while that’s an obvious drop from his .306 BA over the first two months, the real problems were his declining rates in onbase percentage (.292) and slugging (.377.) And his strikeout rate for June zoomed to 26.5 percent. Per wRC+, Winn was 25 percent above league average offensively through the end of May but performed nine percent below average in June. Some leveling off was inevitable. Hopefully for Winn and the Cardinals, he’ll put in a strong two weeks before the All-Star break.

— The Cardinals averaged only 4.03 runs per game in June. That’s just a whisker more than their inadequate average (3.9) over the first two months. The St. Louis pitching staff is under intense pressure to limit runs and give the team a chance to win low-scoring games. The starting pitchers and relievers don’t have much space to fail, and the hitters rarely rescue them on bad pitching days. This offense is stuck in the mediocre mode, ranking no better than 14th overall in the meaningful categories in June. Per wRC+, the Cardinals were three percent below league average offensively for June, ranking tied for 16th overall.

— The injury factor: the Cardinals played most of June without Willson Contreras in the lineup as he healed and rehabbed from a forearm fracture that knocked him out on May 7. Contreras is back but off to a slow restart, batting .174 in his first 23 at-bats this month. That isn’t surprising, and he’ll need time to get back in the groove. Lars Nootbaar (oblique) and Tommy Edman (wrist) each missed all of June. Nootbaar’s absence was particularly damaging to the STL offense. In his final 14 games of May, before the injury, Noot surged to a .340 average, .441 OBP and .520 slug for a .961 OPS.

— The team’s defense had some rough stretches in June, and the Cardinals allowed 19 unearned runs for the month. But except for getting burned for five unearned runs in Saturday’s home loss to Cincinnati, the St. Louis defense rebounded nicely and was much sharper during the final two weeks of June.

Considering all that went wrong, the Cardinals have no need to apologize for their .518 winning percentage in June. Due to several important factors, the Cardinals had a winning month instead of a losing month.

+ Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson stepped to the front to lead the offense at a time of urgent need. In the 28 June games the duo combined for  59 hits, a .286 average, 11 homers, 36 RBIs, 28 runs scored, five steals and a wRC+ that was 32 percent above league average offensively. With runners in scoring position, Burleson and Donovan teamed for a combined .339 batting average and 23 RBIs.

+ Center fielder Michael Siani roved the outfield with his marvelous defense and hit .277 with a .415 slug in June. Among Cardinals with at least 70 plate appearances in June, Siani ranked second in batting average, fourth in slugging, and fourth in OPS.

+ There was solid starting pitching that consistently provided a chance to win games.

+ There was strong-arm work from the bullpen. In June the Cardinals were 12-2 when leading a game through six innings, 12-1 when leading through seven innings, and a perfect 14-0 when holding a lead into the ninth. Ryan Helsley secured his 30th save of the season in Sunday’s 2-0 win over the Reds.

The Cardinals displayed the necessary buoyancy to recover from shaky stretches. They opened June by going 0-2-1 in their first three series, but lost only one series the rest of the month, going 4-1-1. They’re in decent shape going forward but desperately require a transfusion on offense. And that will be a challenge.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.