Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Season Is Full Of Surprisingly Good Performances. Let’s Highlight Them.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I’m sorry that I’m running late today in getting this column posted. It’s one of those days. All good. Just hectic for unexpected reasons …

Anyway…

The Cardinals are in Chicago to begin a four-game series at Wrigley Field and will try to build on their series win over Texas.

I want to write a piece looking at all of the unexpected surprises – of varying degree – that have elevated the Cardinals to evolve from being an early-season failure to postseason contender. Every team that wants to win needs these guys, and the Cardinals have many of them.

Here’s my list of the most pleasant surprises during the first four months of the Cardinals campaign …

MICHAEL SIANI: The resourceful center fielder is easily the most unexpected surprise of the season, and his importance to the team is increasingly obvious. We can talk about his low power (.324 slug) and 26 percent strikeout rate. But let’s not miss the larger and important picture that encompasses Siani’s value.

Siani’s exceptional defense really matters. His speed is an asset. His deft small-ball touch makes a difference. Siani is an unusual talent during an era of baseball where power reigns supreme, and the more subtle skills are overlooked and underappreciated.

Here are some indicators of Siani’s value …

+ The Cardinals are 42-33 (.560) when Siani starts a game this season, and 14-19 (.424) when he doesn’t.

+ Since the Cards began turning their season around on May 12, they have a 34-21 record (.618) when Siani starts and a .500 mark (7-7) when he’s not in the opening lineup.

+ When Siani appears in a game in any capacity – starter or reserve – the Cardinals have a 55-43 record for a .561 winning percentage. When he hasn’t played in a game, the team is 1-9 for a .100 winning percentage.

OK, now let’s look at the categories that showcase Siani’s attributes …

Defense: Siani is tied with Washington’s Jacob Young for the most Outs Above Average (15) among major-league outfielders. He’s tied for first with a 96 percent success rate, and ranks No. 1 in outs above average to his left, and outs above average to his right. His success-rate added (8%) is the best by a major-league defender at any position.

Speed-baserunning: Siani has an extra-bases taken percentage of 53%, which is a full 10 percent higher than the major-league average. Siani ranks among the top 21 percent of major-league players in sprint speed. That’s a primary reason for his .307 batting average on ground balls. Leads the Cardinals with 14 stolen bases, and his 82.3 percent success rate is tied for ninth in the majors among players that have attempted at least 15 steals.

Small-balling: Siani’s productive-out percentage (50%) is by far the best among Cardinal regulars and 23% and 22 percent above the major-league average. When Siani bats with a runner on second base and no outs in the inning, he’s moved the runner over nine times in the 10 situations. With a runner on third base and less than two outs, Siani has got the run home eight times in 13 attempts for a 61.5 percent rate that’s 10.5% higher than major-league average. Siani leads MLB players with 10 sacrifice bunts.

About Siani’s offense: I’m aware that Siani has a 77 wRC+ for the season that puts him 23 percent below league average offensively. That’s the worst among Cardinal regulars. OK, fine. Again, I’m aware of his limitations. But this also must be recognized: Siani is getting better, month by month. I’ll show you the info, using his batting average and wRC+. For those who don’t know or care about the fancy-pants wRC+, that’s fine with me. It’s a meaningful metric, or I wouldn’t use it.

I’ll translate, providing the monthly wRC+ percentages for Siani’s season. And as you’ll see, Siani’s gradual improvement is a real thing, and obvious.

Monthly batting average:

* .128
* .254
* .277
* .310

Monthly wRC+

* 69 percent below the league average.
* 31 percent below average.
* 7 percent below average.
* Exactly league average, 100 wRC+.

OK, I’m not saying this makes Siani the next Tony Gwynn. But when a dude (a) plays elite, best-in-majors defense; (b) is your team’s best baserunner; and (c) makes an impact with his tool box of fundamentals, it really doesn’t matter if he’s an average overall hitter or slightly below it.

In his first two months of 2024, Siani batted an abysmal .206 with a horrible 54 wRC+ that made him 46 percent below average offensively.

In June-July, Siani batted .293 with a 97 wRC+ that was only three percent below league average offensively. And given everything else Siani brings to the competition, there isn’t a gosh-darned thing wrong with being three percent under average offensively over a two-month period.

Siani’s offensive improvement is accelerating. He has a .353 batting average since July 5, and is hitting .320 since June 12.

In the month of July, Siani ranked No. 1 among regular Cardinals in batting average and No. 2 with a .355 onbase percentage.

Siani’s steady progression in Wins Above Replacement reaffirms his versatile skill set. Because of his defense, baserunning and other positives, he’s been above average in the WAR in each of the last three months. That’s applicable here because WAR encompasses offense, defense and baserunning and is a solid if imperfect indication of someone’s all-around play.

So we’re looking at a talent that had 0.3 WAR in his first two months but has generated 1.2 WAR over the past two months.

Siani’s 1.5 WAR for the season is just a tad below Nolan Arenado (1.6), higher than that of Masyn Winn (1.4), the same as Brendan Donovan (1.5), and better than Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman and Paul Goldschmidt.

Moreover, Siani leads the Cardinals with 1.2 WAR since the start of June. This just proves a player can have good value even if he doesn’t hit home runs or stack a big pile of RBIs.

OK, raise your hand if you expected Michael Siani to have more WAR this season (1.5) than the combined total (0.4) of Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt and Jordan Walker.

Lawdy!

Now that I’ve offered my latest tribute to the Cardinals’ top underdog story of 2024, let’s recognize some of the other Redbird surprises who have helped turn the team with a pitiful 15-24 start into the club that has the NL’s finest winning percentage (.594) since Mother’s Day.

RYAN FERNANDEZ: The largely unknown Rule V draft choice was touted as a young pitcher with potential, and he’s been all of that and much more. Among regular St. Louis relievers, Fernandez leads the bullpen in innings (49), is second to Ryan Helsley in strikeout rate (24%), third in ERA (2.57), third in holds (10), and fourth in Win Probability Added. And Fernandez has been charged with only one blown save. When Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero were slumping, Fernandez became the Cards’ second most reliable reliever behind Helsley. What an outstanding addition. Hat tip to front-office advisor Chaim Bloom.

ANDRE PALLANTE: With the Cardinals desperate for someone to step up and take over as the fifth starter, Pallante responded with a 3.61 ERA in 10 starts since joining the rotation on May 28. Pallante’s ERA is well clear of the next-best ERA – Miles Mikolas, 4.41 – by a regular STL starter over that time. Ironically, Pallante may be displaced by trade-deadline acquisition Erick Fedde – but not as long as Lance Lynn stays on the IL with right-knee inflammation.

MASYN WINN: After a wobbly late-season rookie trial in 2023, I thought Winn would settle in and have a decent 2024, then get better through added experience. He’s exceeded my expectations, and the same can be said of most Cardinal fans.

Let’s review the reasons why:

* Winn leads St. Louis position players in WAR – in the Baseball Reference version, and the FanGraphs version.

* Winn leads all MLB rookies with 3.6 bWAR, and is third in fWAR.

* Among MLB rookie position players, only Jackson Merrill (Padres) has more offensive bWAR than Wynn, and it’s close.

* Winn is not only the highest-rated MLB rookie on defense at any position; he leads all major-league shortstops with 12 defensive runs saved and double plays and is No. 2 at the position for best range.

* Among Cardinal regulars, Winn is second in batting average (.280), third in OPS (.734), third in onbase percentage (.330) and third in wRC+ (108). He’s also second on the team in runs scored and has batted .281 with runners in scoring position.

* Among MLB hitters that have at least 60 at-bats on an 0-2 count, Winn ranks first with a .298 batting average. And among MLB hitters that have at least 200 at-bats on two-strike counts, Winn ranks third with a .265 average. The only dudes that have a better two-strike batting average than that are Jose Ramirez and Bobby Witt Jr.

ALEC BURLESON: I was on the Burly Bandwagon long before most folks boarded the trolley. But no, I didn’t expect the hulk of hitting to be leading the Cardinals in batting average (.281) and runs batted in (63) and rank second in homers (18), slugging percentage (.467), OPS (.782) and wRC+ (119).

PEDRO PAGES: I knew the Cardinals’ baseball people thought highly of the developing Pages and have felt that way for two or three years before 2024. That said, I didn’t envision Pages leaping ahead of Ivan Herrera to secure an important role as the No. 2 catcher.

Pages’ pitch-framing metrics have slipped some, and Willson Contreras is still the best St. Louis catcher at throwing out stealers. But Pages has a special touch in calling pitches, and has the team’s lowest catcher ERA at 3.72. Among big-league catchers that have been behind the dish for at least 1,200 plate appearances this season, his 3.72 ERA ranks 13th among 46. He’s really good back there.

As a bonus, his offense is coming alive. Since June 22, Pages is hitting .333 with a .365 OBP and .417 slug for a .782 OPS. For the month of July, Pages ranked seventh among MLB catchers with a .310 batting average and was six percent above league average offensively. Pages is a .272 hitter since the beginning of May.

JOHN KING: The lefty reliever seemed to be a throw-in last July when the Cardinals packaged starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and reliever Chris Stratton in a trade for two Texas Rangers’ prospects. King came along, and pitched well (1.45 ERA) for the Cardinals in a lost season. But was that earned-run average for real, or just a limited-sample outlier? I think we’ve gotten our answer this season.

King has been a damn effective reliever in 2024, and manager Oli Marmol isn’t reluctant to use him in big spots. King has a 2.61 ERA in 41 and ⅓ innings covering 38 appearances. When Marmol has summoned King into games won by the Cardinals, King has an 0.77 ERA in 23 and ⅓ innings over 20 appearances. His Win Probability Added in those situations is above the league average.

King has controlled LH batters this season, with a cumulative 0.98 ERA against them. King’s cumulative ERA is higher (3.60) against right-handed batters, but he doesn’t walk many of them and has suppressed their power with a 56.6 percent ground-ball rate.

And that’s what he does. King’s overall 63 percent ground-ball rate is the sixth highest among big-league relievers that have pitched at least 30 innings in 2024. And only one left-handed reliever (Tim Hill) has a higher GB rate than King.

King was (and is) definitely more than a throw-in.

IVAN HERRERA: I don’t want to forget about the rookie catcher and how he came to the rescue to fill the void created when Willson Contreras suffered a fractured left forearm against the Mets on May 7.

From the moment Contreras left that game until he returned from the Injured List on June 24, the Cardinals were tied for a surprising ninth in the majors in wRC+ at the catcher position.

Herrera’s defensive weaknesses were exposed and his power decreased, but I don’t want to hold that against him because he’s still developing.

The Cardinals needed offense from the catcher spot after losing the hard-hitting Contreras, and Herrera got it done. When Herrera started a game at catcher (and not DH) during Contreras’ down time, he hit .321 with a .400 OBP and a wRC+ that was 27 percent above league average offensively.

The Cardinals went 24-16 (.600) with Contreras on the IL. Herrera and Pages maintained the strength at the position and the Cardinals continued to win.

CHRIS ROYCROFT: I know the rookie right-hander has a few crummy outings as of late, but for the most part he’s been a positive addition to the bullpen depth. And we can see that the talent and velocity are there. Roycroft must cut down on walks and come up with a more effective pitch to neutralize left-handed hitters. But Roycroft wasn’t on the radar screen before the season, so getting 24 appearances and 30 and ⅓ innings from him is a positive development for the Cardinals. And I think he’ll get better. This season Roycroft has held right-handed batters to a .203 average and .533 OPS.

KYLE LEAHY: I think he’s underrated because he’s light on the strikeouts and he’s been punched for some hard contact. But let’s keep it in perspective, eh? As one of the last guys on the bullpen depth chart, Leahy has to show that he can jump in at any time – riding that Memphis to St. Louis shuttle – and help the Cardinals get through an emergency. Leahy has done a good job with the role. He has a 2.54 ERA in 17 appearances and 28 and ⅓ innings since May 13. He’s worked in nine of the team’s wins, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings.

ROOKIE PITCHERS: I’ve already mentioned a few of these guys – Fernandez, Leahy, Roycroft – but let’s take a look at what rookie hurlers have done for the Cardinals as a group this season. In addition to the three rookies I’ve cited, the Cardinals have also utilized Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Ryan Loutos, Nick Robertson, Adam Kloffenstein and Riley O’Brien.

The totality of their work is impressive. The nine rookie pitchers have collectively handled 146 innings and have a 3.32 ERA. McGreevy was the latest rookie to get promoted from Triple A Memphis and raise his profile with a timely, outstanding performance. His seven-inning, one-run start to beat the Rangers was one of the most delightful surprises in a season of surprises.

Last season the Cardinals ranked 22nd in the majors in WAR from rookie pitchers. This season they’re 12th.

STANDINGS CHECK: In the NL Central the second-place Cardinals are five games in back of the first-place Brewers and a game up on the third-place Pirates. In the NL wild-card roulette, the Cardinals are currently sitting fifth among the teams hoping to win one of the three spots. What a rumpus. The Redbirds are 2 and ½ games behind the No. 1 Braves, two games behind the No. 2 Padres, trail the No. 3 Diamondbacks by 1 and ½, and are a half-game in back of the Mets, who are fourth.

DAILY PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT. I’ll be listing these daily during the week (and at times on the weekend) until the end of the regular season – until the Cardinals either clinch a playoff spot or get eliminated from contention.

Today: FanGraphs gives St. Louis has a 13.6 percent chance of winning the division, a 13.2% shot at grabbing a wild-card, and a 26.9% crack of qualifying for the postseason. It’s interesting that the Redbirds have about the same probability of winning the NL Central or securing a wild-card spot.

Including the three clubs that lead the divisions, seven NL teams have better odds than the Cardinals in reaching the postseason. Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks and Mets. But these odds change daily as teams turn hot or cold. I view the odds as a convenient snapshot of the shape of the race on that particular day.

TRIVIA: McGreevy became the latest alum of Cal Santa Barbara to reach the majors. The most prominent baseball alums of UCSB are Shane Bieber, Skip Schumaker, Barry Zito, Michael Young (the longtime Texas Ranger) and Ryan Spilborghs.

Thanks for your patience, and thanks for reading …

— Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.