Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Starting Rotation Has Shown Dramatic Improvement In Recent Weeks.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Over the last 25 days, the St. Louis starting rotation has evolved into a team strength. Yes, really. This is happening. Now, this doesn’t mean the Cardinal starters, as a group, will continue to thrive. It’s a long season and all of that. Lots of zigzagging. Getting knocked down. Getting back up.

The strong trend can be snapped by injuries. Or maybe Lance Lynn gets pummeled by the Pirates today at Busch Stadium, and the Cardinals go to Wrigley Field and get smashed around during a starting-pitching relapse. As St. Louis fans know all too well, you can never trust the good times – because there might be something bad around the next turn. It’s unpredictable.

In the stock market, where volatility is normal, there’s a term called the “fear index.” Well, the St. Louis starting pitching comes with a fear index. The fear of the unknown, the fear of everything changing from day to day. But for now, we can appreciate how the rotation has stabilized and is delivering.

Ideal? Heavens, no. Hell, no. Just … no. But let us recall that in 2023, a dismaying campaign filled with damage and destruction, Cardinals starting pitchers combined for a grotesque 5.08 ERA. That was the worst in franchise history in a full season. This goes back to 1900 when the franchise was renamed the Cardinals.

In the first two games of the series with Pittsburgh, Miles Mikolas and Sonny Gray teamed for 14 combined innings of special pitching. Over the two nights, 49 batters stepped into the box to take on Mikolas, then Gray. Only eight of the 49 yinzers reached base – on five hits, two walks and a hit batter. Mikolas and Gray struck out 31 percent of the Pirates that stood before them.

Only one run came in. Pittsburgh batted .109 with a .380 OPS against Mikolas-Gray and went 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position.

The Cardinals lost a tight one, 2-1, on Monday. Mikolas received no run support during his seven innings. On Tuesday the Cards gave Gray four runs to work with from the third through the fifth innings, and that was enough. The Redbirds evened the series with a 4-2 victory. Now it’s up to Lynn to keep the line moving by setting the tone in a 1:15 p.m. start.

Here are the details of the rotation turnaround …

1. In the first 44 games of the season, St. Louis starting pitchers combined for a 4.79 ERA that ranked 25th overall and 13th in the National League.

2. In the last 22 games, Cards starters have collectively pitched to a 3.10 ERA that ranks sixth overall and third in the NL since May 18.

3. STL starters accrued only 1.8 Wins Above Replacement over the first 44 games. They’ve amassed 2.2 WAR in the last 22 games. That’s right: the rotation has provided more value in the last 22 games than it did in twice as many games (44) before May 18.

4. In their first 44 starts, Cards starters had a 20.4 percent strikeout rate that ranked 23rd. In the last 22 assignments, their starters have a 25.4 percent strikeout rate that’s second in the majors over that time.

5. The Cardinals had a quality-start percentage of 31.8 during their first 44 games. Over the last 22 outings, their quality-start percentage is 45.4.

6. Through the first 44 games the Cardinals had a 19-25 record and the NL’s 13th best winning percentage (.432.) In their 22 games since May 18, the Redbirds are 13-9 – and their .591 winning percentage is third best in the NL behind Philadelphia and Cincinnati.

7. The four primary starters – Mikolas, Gray, Lynn and Kyle Gibson – have a collective 2.72 ERA in their 18 starts since May 18. All four have earned-run averages of 2.96 or lower during the rotation’s upswing.

8. Andre Pallante has made a difference since moving into the rotation to make three starts. Sure, he had one awful start. But in his other two starts Pallante didn’t allow a run in 11 innings of work and the Cardinals won both games. His ERA in three starts is 3.86. The other dudes used as fifth starters – Steven Matz, Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore – had a combined 6.00 ERA in their 10 starts. Pallante has upgraded the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

9. In the 13 starts that resulted in a team win since May 18, Cardinal starters did their part with a 1.67 ERA in 69 and ⅔ innings. I’m referring to Gray, Gibson, Mikolas, Lynn and Pallante.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: If the Cardinals can win Thursday’s series finale they’ll be 33-34 on the season. And it would be the team’s first series win since taking two of three games at Cincinnati in late May. Since then the Cardinals lost consecutive road series at Philadelphia and Houston and came home to split a four-game set against Colorado … the Cardinals are 17-10 since May 12 and have won four of their last seven games going into Thursday’s matinee … the Reds, Cubs and Cardinals are each seven games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central, and the Pirates trial the Brewers by 7 and ½.

GOLDY-NADO: The Cardinals got a good game from their infield cornermen Wednesday, with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado combining for four hits in eight at-bats with an RBI and two runs scored.

Arenado had three of the hits and the RBI. He’s gone 8 for 16 in his last four games and has three multi-hit games in a row. Arenado has raised his batting average from .248 to .264 over his last four games.

Since May 12 Goldy is batting .270 with a .331 OBP and .460 slug for a .790 OPS. He also has six doubles, five homers and 14 RBIS over that time. There’s been some improvement from both men.

DYLAN CARLSON: The outfielder had a ground-ball single for an RBI last night, with the hit giving the Cardinals a 2-0 lead and setting up another run later in the inning for a 3-0 advantage. In his last four games Carlson is 5 for 14 (.357) with two doubles and four RBIs. And three of his five hits have come against right-handed pitchers.

BRENDAN DONOVAN: He contributed to Wednesday’s win with two hits, a walk, an RBI and a run scored. Donovan has a seven-game hitting streak that’s highlighted by a .333 batting average and .357 onbase percentage.

IVAN HERRERA: The catcher had three hits and scored a run Wednesday. In his 102 plate appearance since Willson Contreras was injured, Herrera has hit .312 with a .379 OBP. The Cardinals have a winning record (22-20) when Herrera starts a game this season at catcher or designated hitter. This season the rookie has produced more offense as a catcher (.736 OPS) than as a DH (.354 OPS).

MIXED BAG BY THE OFFENSE: The Cardinals won on Wednesday and that’s the bottom line. The offense was both good and bad. The Cards had 11 hits but 10 were singles. They also struck out 13 times including four by Nolan Gorman and two Ks each by Carslon and Goldschhmidt. But the team went 3 for 9 with runners in scoring position which is a lot better than usual, and Herrera and Donovan each had a stolen base.

MASYN WINN: He got an RBI with a ground out last night, and that’s the positive. But Wynn is 3 for 17 in his last four games, a downturn that’s dipped his batting average below .300 at .299. Manager Oli Marmol is trying to establish Winn as a leadoff hitter but the early returns aren’t good. In 59 plate appearances batting No. 1 this season, Winn is hitting .232 with a .254 OBP and he’s struck out 29 percent of the time. His overall performance as a leadoff hitter is 32 percent below league average offensively per wRC+.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the day baseball.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.