Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Milwaukee Brewers Are The New St. Louis Cardinals.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The small-market, big-brained Milwaukee Brewers did it again, overcoming the odds and the expectations and wealthier franchises to win the NL Central title.

Fans in St. Louis should be used to this by now. I’ve written about this before and I’m going there again. The Cardinals ownership and front office should be embarrassed by Milwaukee’s division takeover.

The same goes for the Cubs, who have the division’s largest payroll and revenue base. But let’s just keep this about the Cardinals and the Brewers, shall we?

The Milwaukee Brewers are the new St. Louis Cardinals.

Or if you prefer: the Brewers are who the Cardinals used to be before the Cardinals forgot about all of the traits and characteristics that made this such a special franchise once upon a time under chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.

Since the start of 2017 …

* Brewers .558 winning percentage, 6th in MLB. The Cardinals are 9th in the majors at .527 win%.

* Postseason appearances: Brewers 6, Cardinals 4.

* Division titles: Brewers 4, Cardinals 2

* Average annual payroll ranking: Brewers 22nd, Cardinals 11th.

* Estimated money spent on 26-man payroll since 2017: Brewers $750.8 million. The Cardinals: a booming $1.178 billion.

That’s right.

Based on payroll figures listed at Baseball Cube, with additional data from Cots Contracts, the Cardinals have outspent the Brewers by $427.7 million since the beginning of the 2017 season.

Before the 2024 season, the Brewers were projected to win fewer games than the Cardinals and Cubs. We never learn, do we? Intelligence is more important than payroll size. The Brewers continue to reaffirm that.

Milwaukee was in transition after manager Craig Counsell left the Brewers to sign a lucrative free-agent contract with the Cubs.

Milwaukee rotation ace Corbin Burnes, who can become a free agent after this season, was dealt to Baltimore for prospects.

The superb closer Devin Williams suffered a back injury and didn’t make his season debut until July 28.

Star corner outfielder Christian Yelich succumbed to chronic back problems and was shut down for good on July 29. Yelich opted for surgery, and the Brewers had him for only 73 games this season.

The Crew didn’t have No. 2 starter Brandon Woodruff at all; he missed all 2024 after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Rotation member Wade Miley made three starts then was shut down for the remainder of the season because of a shoulder injury.

A talented young starting pitcher, Robert Gasser, had a 2.57 ERA through five starts and blew out his elbow.

Didn’t matter. The Brewers have been patching up their rotation all season and are on the way to the postseason for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. This Crew supplanted the Cardinals as the smartest team, the most resourceful team, the most efficient team, the most well run team – and the best team – in the NL Central.

It isn’t even a debate. Milwaukee has won two consecutive NL Central titles, three of the last four and four of the last six. The Brewers have flopped in the postseason — the only real failure — and they’ll take another whack at it when the tournament begins next month.

The Brewers weren’t supposed to get there. That’s the part so many people miss. Unlike the Cardinals, this franchise outperforms its payroll level every season. There’s an underdog vibe about the Brewers and this team thrives on it. It’s an energy source.

Just before the start of the season, Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy had this to say about his team: “We’re gonna play hard. It’s a bunch of guys I think the fans will fall in love with. Be careful, because they might just believe themselves right into contention.”

You could say that.

“No one in spring training would have said that the Brewers will win the NL Central, except maybe a few guys in that room, and it just talks to one thing: this is a game about people,” Murphy said after the Brewers clinched the NL Central crown Wednesday night. “You could throw as many adversities our way as you want. You trade our Cy Young winner, our number one (Woodruff) is down for the year, we lose Wade (Miley), we lose (Robert) Gasser. We lose so many other pitchers – we lose Devin (Williams) until August, and then we lose (Christian) Yelich in August. So many other injuries, and how many different starting pitchers.”

How do the Brewers keep doing this? A fantastic front office, led by Matt Arnold is the No. 1 reason. The Brewers constantly find economical solutions to fill roster voids.

They have an eye for low-cost, high-value talent such as starting pitchers Colin Rea and Tobias Myers. They make great trades (shortstop Willy Adames.) They find jewels in the international market (the phenomenal Jackson Chourio.) They’re smart shoppers in the free agent market (first baseman Rhys Hoskins.)

I want to zone in on the Brewers-Cardinals contrast and highlight a few examples of how Milwaukee has a much better roster than St. Louis despite spending a lot less money. Frankly, some of this is ridiculous and exposes the glaring difference between the two baseball departments. It’s no contest.

FRONT OFFICE

Arnold runs the baseball operation. He’s an acolyte of Jeff Luhnow, who modernized the Cardinals’ drafting and player-development methods from 2003 through 2010 before leaving to become Astros GM. Arnold finds incredible bargains on the market to deepen his roster. Best example: reliever Bryan Hudson, who was let go by the Dodgers to create room on their 40-man roster. Arnold swooped in and picked up Hudson – who has a 1.73 ERA and 27 percent strikeout rate in 62 and ⅓ innings this season.

Before Arnold moved into the top job, he was an assistant to David Stearns, who also served as an analyst for Luhnow in Houston. The Sons of Luhnow have been running the Brewers, and running past the Cardinals. Coincidence? I think not.

The Cardinals have president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, who is not Jeff Luhnow. Mozeliak — who did so many good things early during his tenure — ran out of answers and solutions a long time ago and let the player-development system slide from a strength to a weakness. Bargains? Well, Brandon Crawford sure was a steal at $2 million this year.

(I apologize for the snark.)

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: The seven pitchers who made the most starts for the Crew this season are Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Joe Ross, trade acquisition Frankie Montas and swingman Bryce Wilson. The total salary cost for the seven pitchers this season? Only $20.6 million.

St. Louis: The seven pitchers who made the most starts for the Cardinals this season are Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde. The total salary cost for the STL seven? That would be $65.2 million.

The Brewers spent $44.6 million less than the Cardinals for their busiest starters and have a superior rotation.

+ Peralta makes $5.5 million … Mikolas makes $17.6 million. Who would you rather have?

+ Rea makes $3.5 million … Gray makes $10 million. Sonny signed a three-year deal that averaged $25 million per season, but Gray deferred money and agreed to take $10 million in 2024.

+ Myers makes only $740,000 and has a 3.10 ERA that ranks 10th among NL starters  … Kyle Gibson makes $12 million.

+ Civale’s prorated salary is $2.3 million … Lynn’s salary is $10 million.

+ The combined salaries for Montas (prorated), Ross and Wilson comes to $8.55 million. Steven Matz makes considerably more than that this season ($12.5 million) all by himself.

+ Between them, Mikolas, Gray, Gibson, Matz and Lynn are collecting three times as much salary this season than the entire seven-starter group that’s done so well for the Brewers. Embarrassing.

POSITION PLAYERS

— In 2024, Milwaukee’s entire set of position players are collectively being paid $63.67 million.

— Three Cardinals – Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras – are making a combined $68 million.

– And keep in mind that the Brewers’ $63.67 million investment includes the generous salary ($26 million) that goes to Yelich. That means all of the other Milwaukee position players are receiving a combined $37.7 million this year.

— Think about the disparity between Milwaukee’s investments in position players, and STL’s investments in position players.

– Now consider this: the Brewers rank 4th in the majors in runs per game. The Cardinals are 24th in the same category. The Brewers have the third-ranked defense based on defensive runs saved; the Cardinals are 15th. Speed? The Brewers are third in stolen bases; the Cards are 21st.

—  Using Wins Above Replacement as a measure, the top five Brewers – William Contreras, Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and Joey Ortiz – have a combined 19.4 WAR. The top five Cardinals – Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Willson Cotreras and Ivan Herrera – have amassed 13.1 WAR.

The Brewers have a winning culture. It’s one of the reasons why this team didn’t flinch after Counsell defected to the enemy. The Cardinals’ winning culture? I don’t know what to say about that, because I don’t think it exists … not based on what we used to see around here. Hey, but least Cardinals fans can always treasure those postseason victories over the Brewers in the 1982 World Series and the 2011 NLCS.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.