Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Pros and Cons Of Trading Cardinals Catcher Willson Contreras.

Greetings. Today I continue with my series of columns on potential offseason trade assets on the Cardinals’ roster. So far I’ve discussed the pros and the cons of trading closer Ryan Helsey and starting pitcher Sonny Gray.

And now it’s time to put the focus on Willson Contreras, the team’s No. 1 catcher who also takes shifts as a designated hitter.

The Overview: In the aftermath of Yadier Molina’s retirement, the Cardinals went shopping for a catcher and coveted Contreras. They agreed on a five-year contract worth a total of $87.5 million for an average of $17.5 million per season. Contreras has three years remaining on that deal and will be paid an average of 18.2 million (guaranteed) from 2025 through 2027. The contract includes a no-trade clause, so Contreras can veto any proposed deal. His first two seasons as a Cardinal didn’t go smoothly.

There was the early-season controversy in 2023 when pitchers blamed Contreras for their own failures, prompting manager Oli Marmol to appease the veteran pitchers. The Cardinals decided to scapegoat Contreras and move him to DH – but quickly rescinded that after a justified backlash from fans and media over the unfair treatment of the catcher during his first several weeks as a Cardinal. Then, in 2024, Contreras was disrupted by two separate injuries – a fractured arm and a broken finger – that sidelined him for 84 total days. Because of that, Contreras logged only 358 plate appearances in 2024 – his fewest in a full season since arriving in the big leagues back in 2016.

Contreras is an excellent hitter, especially for a catcher. He’s worked hard to improve his defense but is still slightly below average. (Nothing drastic.) But there’s nothing wrong with his right arm; in his two seasons with STL, Contreras had an above average throw-out rate in nabbing base stealers. This offseason the Cardinals are likely to gauge the amount of trade interest in Contreras, to see if a deal would put more young talent into the Cardinals’ system. It’s unknown if he’d like to be traded. He has enjoyed playing in St. Louis and for the Cardinals – but has not enjoyed the team’s failure to make the playoffs for two consecutive years.

Why Trade Contreras? The Cardinals are entering a rebuilding phase, and want to give expanded opportunities to younger players to see how they fit into the team’s future. The Cardinals have a surplus of catchers in Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages and hot-shot prospects Jimmy Crooks and Leonardo Bernal. Given the large catcher population in the St. Louis system, it makes sense to offload the remaining three years of the Contreras contract and set a new plan at the catcher position.

Herrera is a natural hitter, and his defensive flaws have been overstated by me and others. Herrera, 24, batted .301 last season with a .372 onbase percentage and .428 slugging percentage. And his power will only increase. Among STL position players that had a minimum 250 plate appearances last season, Herrera ranked second with a wRC+ that was 27 percent above league average offensively. (Only Contreras was better with the bat.) And Herrera accrued an impressive 2.1 WAR in only 72 games. Pages is touted for his defensive work and his handling of pitchers. Even though Pages appears to have a limited ceiling offensively, he did put up a .447 slugging percentage over his final 23 games last season, and flashed some power.

Why Keep Contreras? I’ve cited this a few times already, and I think it’s important to note it again. So here goes … since joining the Cardinals, Contreras is the best-hitting catcher in the majors. And that is based on the facts.

Not counting DH at-bats, here’s where Contreras ranks among MLB catchers in key categories since the start of 2023 – minimum 550 plate appearances:

• Batting average: .284, third
• Onbase percentage: .381, first
• Slugging percentage: .519, first
• OPS: .900, first
• wRC+: 148, first. (48% higher than the MLB average
• Walk rate: 10.8, sixth
• Wins Above Replacement: 5.3, eighth

In 579 plate appearances over the last two seasons Contreras has launched 30 homers and driven home 85 runs.

Taking his DH at-bats into account, Contreras rates among the top 20 right-handed hitters in the majors since the start of last season (minimum 800 plate appearances.) He’s been 33 percent above league average offensively (10th), ranks sixth in onbase percentage (.367), is 18th in slugging (.468) and 11th in OPS (.835.)

Since the start of 2023, The Cardinals’ group of right-handed batters have been two percent above league average offensively. Removing Contreras would weaken the offense. And Contreras, who competes hard, has leadership qualities. That shouldn’t be overlooked at a time when the Cardinals turn into a younger team.

Important To Keep In Mind: I want to go back to the catching prospects. They’re a relevant factor in any decision-making process over Contreras’ future. MLB Pipeline lists Crook as STL’s No. 5 prospect, and Bernal isn’t far beyond at No. 9.

Bernal, only 20, is a switch hitter and still developing as a hitter. His minor-league stats hint at good onbase capability but limited power. But it’s too soon to make any conclusions about his offensive potential. He has impressed with his defense and had a positive 34% caught-stealing rate in 2024.

Crooks, 23, is a fine catcher defensively. Pardon the cliche but he has a bulldog persona. By all accounts the pitchers like working with him. The older and more experienced Crooks is a year ahead of Bernal (at least) in the path to the majors. Crooks is a left-handed hitter who punishes right-handed pitchers. Last season at Double A Springfield, Crooks ripped righties for a .331 average, .404 onbase percentage, .528 slug and a .932 OPS. He has a highly-graded throwing arm. If the Cardinals decide to move on from Contreras, they have promising talent that’s ready to take over at catcher as soon as 2025. And even if Contreras is gone, the Cardinals will still have a waiting line of catchers on the tarmac.

Fun With Facts: For some reason – and it doesn’t make sense – Contreras hasn’t put up good numbers when used at DH in his two seasons here. In 268 plate appearances at DH he’s batted .220 with a .361 slugging percentage and has only five home runs. Contreras has walked a lot as a DH, and that gives him a .340 OBP at the spot. But he’s also struck out just under 28 percent of the time when installed at DH.

What Does Contreras Think? We don’t know if he’s open to the idea of being traded. But after the team’s final game of 2024, a frustrated Contreras challenged the St. Louis front office to improve the team for ’25. Here is a sequence of his quotes from that day:

– “There’s some areas that need to be addressed. I don’t know if the front office is going to, but… we didn’t come together as an offense at all, during the whole year. There’s a lot of holes throughout the lineup as well, from 1 to 9…”

– “The only thing we can control is show up next year and keep working. But as an organization, I think the Cardinals are one of the biggest organizations in baseball, and if I was them, if I was the front office, I’d have to be hungry to own this division … We haven’t owned this division the last two years.”

– When asked what the Cardinals need to get better for 2025, Contreras said “that’s a good question for the front office to answer. I’m not gonna answer that question. But I think if you look at the numbers as an offense, you will notice what’s possibly missing. As a group, we need to make an adjustment next year, for sure.”

– Contreras later spoke to television station FOX 2 in St. Louis: ““We cannot be okay with this result,” he said. “I know it might be better than (2023), but if you look at the Cardinals organization, it’s a huge organization for the MLB. We should be hungry to be on top of this NL Central. We haven’t done that in the last two years.”

Final Thoughts: I’d expect some action on the catcher front – one way or another. If the Cardinals retain Contreras, they certainly have attractive trade pieces in their colony of their young catchers. If the front office jumps into the trade market this offseason, there should be plenty of interest in their catching … be it Contreras or one of the younger dudes.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.