Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Pros And Cons Of Trading Cardinals Closer Ryan Helsley.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Over the next week or so, I’ll be writing a case-by-case look at potential trade pieces on the current St. Louis Cardinals roster. The group I’ll be focusing on consists of closer Ryan Helsley, starting pitcher Sonny Gray, catcher Willlson Contreras, third baseman Nolan Arenado, and starting pitcher Nick Fedde. I could add a couple of other names if new information surfaces.

This is not intended to be an examination of the possibility of the Cardinals pulling off a successful offload of unappealing 2025 salaries. For example: pitchers Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. I’ll probably come up with some written thoughts on them (and perhaps others) after I’m finished evaluating the most prominent set of trade pieces.

Let’s begin!

RYAN HELSLEY

Why trade him? Because he’s eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, is one of the top closers in the majors, is coming off a career-best performance in 2024. The Cardinals don’t figure to re-sign Helsley, and he will likely draw substantial free-agent offers the pre-2026 postseason. With the possible exception of the 2025 trade deadline, his trade value has never been higher as it is right now. By trading him this offseason, the Cardinals would save between

Why keep him? Helsley is the No. 1 reason why the Cardinals won 83 games despite having an average (at best) starting rotation and a boring, feckless offense. Helsley set a franchise record with 49 saves last season. He had either a win (7) or a save (49) in 67.5 percent of the team’s victories. His closer work included a 1.29 ERA in his 49 saves, a 1.99 ERA in all save situations, and a 2.00 ERA in his seven victories in relief. It’s probably a longshot, but perhaps the front office should try to interest him in a contract extension. Helsley would give the 2025 Cardinals some valuable protection in the first year of a rebuilding phase. As long as Helsley stays healthy. He can help – to say the least – keep their ‘25 record respectable by locking in wins. With an unproven closer, the 2025 Cardinals would be extremely vulnerable. Helsley is the guard dog that can defend precious leads … and make the Cardinals look better than they are … which was what he did in 2024. In that context, the word “save” takes on a whole new meaning.

By riding with Helsley into 2025, Cardinals ownership-management would send a message to their fans: rebuilding doesn’t have to be a failure. We are still trying to have a good ballclub in 2025. I don’t know if the message would be well received … or rejected.

A statistic that shows Helsley’s value: The Cardinals have had a long line of exceptional closers in their history. The short list would feature Bruce Sutter, Jason Isringhausen, Lee Smith, Al Hrabosky, Trevor Rosenthal, Todd Worrell, and Tom Henke. Helsley belongs with them.

My go-to metric to evaluate relievers is Win Probability Added, also known as WPA. It stems from this question: when a reliever enters the game, does he enhance your team’s chance to win it – or do your odds of a success go down? This applies to all relievers and not just the closers.

Based on WPA, here are the the 10 best single-season performances by a Cardinal reliever during the expansion era, which began in 1961:

1.  Al Hrabosky, 1975
2.  Ryan Helsley, 2024
3.  Bruce Sutter, 1984
4.  Jeff Lahti, 1985
5.  Tom Henke, 1995
6.  Ryan Helsley, 2022
7.  Seth Maness, 2015
8.   Jason Isringhausen, 2004
9.   Todd Worrell, 1987
10.  Lee Smith, 1991

You’ll notice that only one St. Louis reliever appeared twice in that Top 10 list.

Helsley.

That’s quite impressive.

Important to keep in mind: If the Cardinals make Helsley available this offseason and aren’t pleased by the offers that come their way, they can always hold onto him, pay the considerable increase in his salary for 2025, then try take advantage of closer-needy contenders by setting a high price in the trade exchange.

However: Helsley has a history of injuries. And if the hard-throwing right-hander suffers a serious physical breakdown during the first four months of the 2025 season – elbow, shoulder, forearm, etc. – then his trade value is shot. On the other hand, if Helsley endures such a setback, the Cardinals could always offer a two-year contract. It would feature a lower salary during his rehab season (2026) then increase his pay for a planned return in 2027. This would be similar to what the Brewers did with their quality starter, Brandon Woodruff. They paid Woodruff $2.5 million as he rehabbed his post-surgery shoulder during all of 2024, and will pay him $5 million next season.

There is also a mutual team-player option for 2026 at a price of $20 million. If the Brewers decline the option, they will hand Woodruff a $10 million buyout for 2026. If both sides agree to the option, Woodruff gets $20 million in 2026.

So at the very least – if the Crew passes on the option – Woodruff would make $17.5 million total in the creative contract devised by Milwaukee president of baseball operations Matt Arnold.

In a worst-case injury scenario, would the Cardinals be willing and capable of structuring an imaginative deal? Would Helsley agree to it, or take his chances on the open market when he’s physically ready to pitch again?

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.