Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Siani Show, Goldy Turns Back The Clock, Nasty Bullpen, And Sonny Gray’s Road Irregularities.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Greetings.

In the latest Review, I’ll be addressing a range of topics that include Michael Siani, Paul Goldschmidt, Matthew Liberatore, Steven Matz, Sonny Gray, and more.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers for a 7-4 victory in 12 innings Tuesday. The Cards have won five of their last seven games and are 9-5 since Aug. 21. All nine wins have come against teams that rank in the top 10 of MLB in winning percentage.

Despite the recent success, the Redbirds can’t gain traction in the competition for the No. 3 wild-card spot. They are sitting 5 and ½ games out with only 23 to play, and three teams (Braves, Mets and Cubs) stand in front of STL in the bidding for the third wild card. FanGraphs gives St. Louis a teensy 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

PADDLING IN PLACE: The Cardinals (70-69) are trying to keep their heads above water, pumping their legs pumping furiously to avoid sinking. There’s been a normalcy to the pattern. Since July 26, a span of 37 contests, the Redbirds’ record has ranged from three games above .500 to three games below .500. No better, no worse. The water wings aren’t getting them anywhere. The bottom line is a 17-20 record since July 26. And over this stretch the Cardinals have gone from having a 33 percent shot at qualifying for the postseason to their present predicament of one percent.

THE MICHAEL SIANI SHOW: It’s a joy to watch the center fielder play ball, and do so many things to alter the competition. Defense, baserunning, improving offense, and an opportunistic heads-up style of play that provides entertainment. Siani showcased it all in Tuesday’s hard-earned win.

– In the 11th, Siani nearly made a circus catch that he had no business making but the ball escaped his glove after his dive attempt. It went for a double and the Brewers tied the game 4-4-. I can’t fault Siani for the ball coming loose as he tumbled to the ground in an aggressive attempt to secure the game-winning out. Not many center fielders would have gotten close enough to make a grab like that. And no, I’m not exaggerating. According to Statcast, the catch probability on that play was only 10 percent.

– Siani more than made up for the hard luck on the catch attempt with a winning flurry of actions in the top of the 12.

– He used a fake bunt to distract Milwaukee reliever Elvis Peguero into a wild pitch, and the act of deception put two teammates in scoring position.

– From there, Siani drove in two runs with an opposite field single to left. The Cardinals seized a 6-4 lead thanks to Siani’s game-winning RBIs.

– Siani wasn’t done. He stole second base, advanced to third on an error (a rushed throw) by Brewers catcher William Contreras, and scored on Alec Burleson’s sac fly to make it 7-4.

Siani’s season was interrupted by an oblique strain that put him on the IL for a month. But nothing has changed with Siani since he returned Monday in Milwaukee.

In 16 games since the All-Star break – with the injury in between – Siani is batting .362 with a .423 onbase percentage and .806 OPS. Despite the injury time off, Siani ranks fourth among MLB center fielders with 13 outs above average.

Add all of this up, and the Cardinals are 44-36 when Siani starts a game this season. The Cards are a dull team. But there is nothing dull about Siani.

BEHOLD PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT: Another vintage performance by the golden-oldie Goldy. He contributed to Tuesday’s triumph in a variety of ways: a double and a homer, three hits and three RBIs, drew a walk, swiped a base and reached base five times. Goldschmidt – who turns 37 next week – isn’t acting his age.

After three poor months to open the season, Goldschmidt’s more recent form is reminiscent of his glory-days past.

– Since the beginning of July, the first baseman is batting .282 with a .510 slugging percentage and .831 OPS.

– He’s hit .310 and slugged .566 since July 26. He’s hit .350 and slugged .625 since Aug. 9.

– In August-September combined, Goldy is hitting .302 with a .547 slug and .904 OPS. His park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) puts him at 48 percent above league average over that time. His strikeout rate since the beginning of August is 21.6%.

– Since the opening of August, Goldschmidt has delivered an extra-base hit every 6.6 at-bats. In his first three months of 2024, he had an extra-base hit every 15 at-bats.

– Goldschmidt has steadily lowered his strikeout rate. It was 29 percent at the end of June but has been 24% since the start of July.

– Compared to where his numbers were at the end of June, Goldschmidt has raised his batting average by 57 points, his onbase percentage by 27 points, his slugging percentage by 149 points, his OPS by 176 points, and his wRC+ by 44 percent.

– If we just include Goldy’s plate appearances when used as a first baseman, he’s 37 percent above league average offensively since Aug. 1. That’s the best wRC+ by a National League first baseman over that time; Freddie Freeman is second best with a 135 wRC+.

Goldschmidt’s contract expires at the end of the season and he’s giving the Cardinals a lot to think about.

STEVEN MATZ CAME BACK: I’ll be polite and call Tuesday’s start a mixed-bag takeaway. He struck out seven of 18 batters faced for an impressive strikeout rate of 38.8 percent. But in his first major-league assignment since April 30, the lefty also yielded two homers and was charged with three earned runs in 4 and ⅔ innings. One of the runs levied against him came after he left the mood. With an inherited runner on second base, Cards reliever Ryan Fernandez gave up a double to Jackson Chourio to give Milwaukee a 3-2 lead.

Matz had a 5.87 ERA in this game. That wasn’t much better than his 6.18 ERA over his first five starts of the season. In 33 starts during his time as a Cardinal, Matz has pitched to a 4.88 ERA.

In his first three seasons as a Cardinal, Matz has pitched only 185 and ⅓ innings and missed 283 in-season days due to injury.

His four-year, $44 million contract runs through the end of 2025.

NASTY STUFF FROM THE STL BULLPEN: The crew was outstanding in Tuesday’s 12-inning brawl. The Cards used five relievers in this order: Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, Matthew Liberatore, and Ryan Helsley. The five arms covered 7 and ⅓ innings without giving up an earned run. The only run that scored was the “ghost” man from second base in the 11th inning, and that doesn’t count as an earned run against a pitcher.

The Brewers went 2 for 23 (.089) with two walks, a hit batter and a sac bunt. Ten of Milwaukee’s 27 plate appearances vs. the Redbird relievers ended in strikeouts. That’s a wicked strikeout rate of 37.7 percent.

IN APPRECIATION OF MATTHEW LIBERATORE: The tall lefty warrants special recognition. Liberatore was the victim of horrendous batted-ball luck Sunday at Yankee Stadium when four earned runs were attached to his pitching line. I won’t go into the full play by play, but Liberatore gave up five hits, all singles. There were four ground-ball singles, and two never left the infield. Another single was a fly that dropped between center fielder Victor Scott and right fielder Jordan Walker. (It should have been caught.) The only real bullet came on a line-drive single by Aaron Judge.

Didn’t matter; Liberatore’s performance went into the logbook as five hits and four earned runs in just 0.2 innings. I’m just saying that he deserved a better fate.

Liberatore has made 15 relief appearances since the beginning of August. Even with the unfortunate turn of events at Yankee Stadium, Liberatore has a 2.25 ERA and has been touched for a .211 average and .468 OPS.

In his 14 relief appearances since the start of August minus New York, Liberatore has an 0.47 ERA in 19 and ⅓ innings. In the 14 calls, he’s struck out 33.3 percent of batters faced and limited opponents to a .123 average. Liberatore pitched to 42 right-handed hitters in the 14 games, and they batted .139 against him with a 31 percent strikeout rate. Can’t do much better than that.

The Cardinals wouldn’t have prevailed Tuesday without two scoreless innings from Liberatore in the ninth and the 10th.

LARS NOOTBAAR, HEATING: He went 2 for 5 Tuesday, and is batting .319 with a .511 slugging percentage in his last 12 games.

NOT EASY TO SCORE 7 RUNS WHEN: Your hitters strike out 13 times, walk twice, and leave eight runners on. And not easy to pull this off when your top four lineup spots have 2 hits in 21 at-bats with seven strikeouts. (Masyn Winn, Burleson, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan.) At least Burly had a walk and brought in a run with that sac fly.

THE ROAD ADVENTURES OF SONNY GRAY: His weird season continues with Wednesday’s start at Milwaukee. Before this season, Gray had a career road ERA of 3.21 in 133 starts. In them, he allowed a .336 slugging percentage and a stingy rate of 0.7 home runs per nine innings. And Gray had never been struck for more than nine road homers in a season.

But in his first year as a Cardinal, Gray has been car-bombed on the road: 11 starts, 5.62 ERA, an opponent .528 slugging percentage and a sky-high average of 2.2 home runs per nine innings.

CONSIDER THIS REVEALING GRAY STAT: Gray has allowed 16 road homers in 65 and ⅔ innings this season. In his four previous seasons before joining the Cardinals, Gray was hit for only 15 home runs in 228 and ⅔ innings. Go figure.

WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN TO GRAY? Expect the Brewers to be aggressive and swing early in the count against Gray. I dug up the numbers to put a light on the problem:

= On the road, Gray has allowed four first-pitch homers, six second-pitch homers, and two third-pitch blasts. That accounts for 12 of the 16 home runs swatted against him. All cranked in the first three pitches of an at-bat.

= Gray is predictable in what he chooses to throw early in those counts. He’s been walloped for five road home runs on four-seam fastballs that came on the first or second pitch. He’s been pounded for four home runs on sinkers that came on the first, second or third pitch.

Overall, based on pitch selection, here’s a breakdown of the 16 road home runs surrendered by Gray:

• six four-seam fastballs
• six sinkers
• two cutters
• one changeup
• one sweeper

Unless pitching Cards coach Dusty Blake and Gray deem it necessary to change these blatantly predictable patterns – especially early in counts – the Brewers could have a tee party. As in teeing off. But if the Cardinals smarten up and change the pitch patterns, Gray could catch the Crew off balance.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.