Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Streaking Cardinals Are Answering Some Questions. And So Is Matthew Liberatore.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals have answered some questions while winning 26 of their last 40 games during a spirited gallop that began May 12.

Starting pitching? The top four are good. And a team can win a lot of games when their four best starters come through most of the time. There are hiccups, yes. But during the team’s 26-14 streak, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have a combined 3.46 ERA in 31 starts. The team is 21-10 when they’ve started a game since May 12.

The No. 5 starting role? Still unresolved, just as it has been since the injured Steven Matz last pitched in a major-league game on April 30. But Matthew Liberatore sure stepped forward in Wednesday’s dynamic win over the Braves. More on the lefty later.

The Bullpen? Still impressive overall, but I’m sure manager Oli Marmol would sleep a little better if (a) Andrew Kittredge could get some swings and misses and strikeouts; if (b) JoJo Romero would settle the heck down; and (c) Ryan Helsley could tame his four-seam fastball.

The Offense? It’s been better over the last 40 games, with the Cardinals averaging 4.6 runs, hitting .260 and posting an above-average .732 OPS. But it’s still a little wobbly and fragile. There could be trouble if Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn cool down. Nolan Gorman needs to heat up.

Injuries? Well, it’s always something. Catcher Willson Contreras has reentered the lineup after suffering a fractured forearm on May 7. The latest weird development is Tommy Edman spraining an ankle which will delay his return from the IL. Edman – the presumptive starter in center field – has been out all season after surgical repairs were done on his right wrist. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar (oblique) is said to be close to beginning an injury-rehab assignment in the minors. But given Nootbaar’s extensive injury history over the last two years, it is wise to assume nothing.

The Manager? The public seems to be warming to Marmol a little. Which is fair. And it makes sense. He did a helluva job in keeping an extremely vulnerable team from drowning. After staggering out to a 15-24 start that had the bloggers feverishly scribbling lists of potential Marmol replacements, the Cardinals have risen to the National League’s best record since May 12. And over that time only one major-league team (Cleveland) has a higher winning percentage than St. Louis.

Front Office? To be determined. John Mozeliak and associates can be proud of the free-agent acquisitions of starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn and feel good about the bullpen renovations. But the uncertainty at the fifth-starter spot is embarrassing, the trade deadline is a little more than a month away. There’s work to be done.

The Fans? Outstanding as always. And their protests were made visible by the sheer number of empty seats at Busch Stadium. But if the Redbirds continue to win, will the dissidents return to the ballpark to fill those seats. That question is hanging out there, and I can’t answer it. But after a slow and dull start, the Cardinals are dominating visiting teams at Busch Stadium, and that trend should be healthy for business. We’ll see.

KEY TO SUCCESS: KEEP WINNING SERIES. That was Tony La Russa’s credo. And he was right. By taking two of three from the Braves, the Cardinals (41-38) are now 9-3-1 in their last 13 series played. They’ve won four of their last five series, and have rebounded from losing two of three at Miami.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals have won five of their last six, and are 10-4 since June 12 … with Wednesday’s doubleheader split, the Cardinals are 15-5 in their last 20 games at Busch Stadium. And last week’s game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham was technically a Cardinals’ home game, and the Cards won that too. So that makes them 16-5 in their last 21 home games … during their 26-14 gambol, the Cardinals rank sixth in MLB with a 3.55 team ERA, rank ninth with a 3.77 starting-pitching ERA, and are eighth with a 3.22 bullpen ERA … offensively they are fifth overall in the majors in batting average since May 12, and among MLB teams rank 10th in slugging, 11th in OPS tied for ninth in homers.

LET’S TALK ABOUT MATTHEW LIBERATORE: What a tremendous performance in Wednesday night’s 4-1 victory over the Braves. Liberatore went much deeper into the game than anticipated and was absolutely brilliant in shutting down ATL over six scoreless innings.

Liberatore pounded the zone for 54 strikes in his 85 pitches (63.5%). He used a six-pitch mix that featured 27 four-seam fastballs, 21 sliders, 17 sinkers, 10 cutters, five changeups and five curves.

The Braves went 0 for 6 against his slider and struck out five times.

Libby kayoed eight of his 20 batters faced for a 40 percent strikeout-rate blitz.

Only three of 20 Atlanta hitters that entered the box against Liberatore reached base, on two singles and a walk.

Liberatore was in control. He needed to throw only seven pitches on three-ball counts … and he threw 31 pitches on two-strike counts.  Liberatore served only four pitches on 2-1 counts … and 13 pitches on 1-2 counts. He attacked and put Atlanta hitters in a defensive position.

LIBERATORE, PART II: In his previous start – the last-minute, emergency assignment at Miami – Liberatore had only a few minutes to prepare after Kyle Gibson was scratched because of back spasms. After rushing to get ready, Liberatore gave up two consecutive solo homers, a double and a walk to open the bottom of the first. But Liberatore settled down to retire his last 10 hitters faced. He did a very fine job in adverse conditions and gave the Cardinals a chance to win with his 3 and ⅔ innings on short notice.

If we take the streak of 10 consecutive Miami hitters retired and connect it to his masterful performance against the Braves, this is what we come up with: 9 and ⅓ innings, no runs, two singles, no walks and nine strikeouts. That’s fantastic work.

LIBERATORE, PART III: This is why Liberatore is so tantalizing. He’s still only 24 years old. He’s only pitched 140 innings in the big leagues. During the last two-plus seasons, the Cardinals have shuttled him from St. Louis, to Triple A Memphis, to St. Louis. They’ve used him as a starter, and turned him into a reliever, then plugged him back in as a starter. Back and forth they go. This can’t be easy for the young left-hander.

But every time I think this about Liberatore – he’s a reliever, not a starter! – he does something special that puts a spotlight on his considerable talent.

Last August, Liberatore started at Tampa Bay and buzzed the Rays over eight shutout innings. They nicked him for two hits and went down eight times on strikeouts. That nasty version of Liberatore was on the mound again last night against the Braves.

Here’s an interesting note on Liberatore.

To go with a simple reference that shows what he’s capable of, I’ll use the Bill James Game Score. All you need to know is that an average grade for a start is 50. Anything above that is a good start – or perhaps a great start. The higher the grade, the better.

Since the start of the 2023 season, here are the 10 best individual Game Scores by St. Louis starting pitchers:

+  Liberatore, 85 vs. Rays, Aug. 10 (2023)
+  Miles Mikolas, 85 vs. Royals, May 30 (‘23)
+  Mikolas, 80 vs. Pirates, June 11 this year
+  Jack Flaherty, 79 vs. Brewers, May 15 (‘23)
+  Sonny Gray, 79 vs. Giants, June 23 this season
+  Kyle Gibson, 78 vs. Cubs, June 14 this season
+  Jordan Montgomery, 78 vs. Brewers, April 8 (‘23)
+  Gray, 76 vs. White Sox, May 3 this year
+  Liberatore, 75 vs. Braves, June 26 this year
+  Mikolas, 75 vs. White Sox, July 8 (2023)

Yes, that’s correct. Though Liberatore has made only 16 starts over the last two seasons – and several were non-traditional “bullpen” starts – he has turned in two of the top 10 starts by a Cardinal … including the top-ranked performance based on quality.

THREE DUDES: In the Atlanta series Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Michael Siani combined for 14 hits in 28 at-bats (.500), clubbed four doubles, and drove in six of STL’s 10 runs scored in the three games. The other Cardinals went a combined 9 for 64 (.141) in the series with a double and four RBIs.

WHO NEEDS HOME RUNS? The Cardinals won two of three games without homering on 103 plate appearances against Atlanta pitchers. And obviously, 10 total three runs in three games is hardly an explosion of offense. But Burleson, Donovan and Siani were terrific. And the Cardinals were 6 for 19 (.316) with 10 RBIs with runners in scoring position. Those RISP opportunities led to success. The Cardinals had two doubles, two sac flies, five walks and an .844 OPS when batting with RISP. That’s a lot of good stuff and it certainly made a difference.

JUST THE FACTS

* Michael Siani, last eight games: 8 for 22 (.364), .391 onbase percentage, .591 slug, .982 OPS, two doubles, one homer. Siani, who bats left, is hitting .274 against right-handed pitching this season – including a .298 average vs. righties since May 1. The way Siani plays defense, there’s nothing to complain about when he’s in the lineup against RHP.

* Nolan Gorman: since June 5 he’s 6 for 73 (.082) with 32 strikeouts and five walks. His strikeout rate is 39.5 percent over this time. Yikes.

* Alec Burleson: he’s 11 for 21 (.524) in his last six games in a barrage that includes three doubles, two homers and 11 RBIs. In his last 23 games Burly is batting .315 with a .607 slug and .954 OPS and has drilled five doubles and seven homers.

* Brendan Donovan: in his last nine games, he’s 16 for 36 (.444) with a .474 OBP and .750 slug with two doubles, three homers and 11 RBIs.

* Nolan Arenado in June: 84 plate appearances, .324 slug, one homer, six RBIs.

* The Reds and Cardinals open a four-game series at Busch Stadium tonight. Cincinnati has lost eight of its last 11 games, averaging 3.5 runs during the cold spell. The Reds (37-43) are 3 and ½ games behind the second-place Cardinals in the NL Central standings.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided perspective and informed opinions on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.