Bernie’s Redbird Review: Welcome Back, Nolan Arenado!

Nolan Arenado reported to spring training in Jupiter on Sunday, and by all accounts no punches were thrown, no one turned away, and There were no cold-shoulder snubs, no long faces or sour expressions. All was calm. Not a squall in sight.

Arenado reported to work and the Cardinals and their third baseman seemed happy with this development. There were hugs between Arenado and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. Another hug with Arenado and manager Oli Marmol.

From the photographic evidence, I did not see any villainous black hats … only Cardinal–red caps. Arenado’s feet were on the ground, in the familiar infield dirt that’s been his landscape for 12 big-league seasons. Arenado’s head was straight. After a winter of vigorous work put in to improve his bat speed and physical explosiveness, Arenado’s body frame was lighter. And so too was his mind.

Wasn’t this supposed to be awkward?

“I’m ready to work,” Arenado told the media covering the team’s camp. “It’s not awkward for my teammates and my coaches. And to be honest with you, it’s not really awkward with the front office. They have a job to do and I have a job to do.”

Oh, well. There goes another ridiculous media-driven narrative.

Arenado’s Arrival Day was just another day in Major League Baseball, a sport which generated a record a $12.5 billion in revenue last season. It’s a business.

Players leave as free agents for more money and/or preferred location … or choose to stay where they are. The team decides when it’s time to part with a player that has an expiring contract … and sometimes teams make a business mistake by extending a contract and holding onto a player for too long. The players and the people that own or run the 30 MLB teams make cold, calculated business decisions every day – and that includes the lineup card.

I know this: The Cardinals are a better team with Arenado at third base in 2025.

I don’t feel a need to offer a comprehensive rehash of this saga; we are all well-versed in the basics.  Arenado and Mozeliak each thought a trade might be best because of the team’s plans for a “reset” for 2025. The Cardinals were getting younger, and cheaper, and turned up their focus on the minor leagues — so would this place be Arenado’s ideal situation for is age 34 season? No, it was not ideal.

So both sides agreed that it made sense to explore trades. But Arenado has a no-trade clause and had the contractual right to be picky. The Cardinals weren’t going to just give him away, either. There wasn’t a trade match agreeable to Arenado or the front office. So he’s still Cardinal. And he reported to work. And teammates, and the manager, and the coaches, and the front-office delegation was happy to see him. One more time: it’s a business.

Arenado acknowledged a desire to have a chance to win a World Series … and soon. He’s played 12 seasons in the majors, with 1,680 regular-season games under his name.

The postseason? In an MLB career that began in 2013, Arenado has competed in only eight playoff games – and has been on the losing side in seven of those contests. So of course he’s hungering for additional opportunities to make a mark in October baseball. I respect his honesty about that.

The Cardinals are in transition. Chaim Bloom will succeed Mozeliak as president of baseball ops after the ‘25 season. The overdue modernization of the minor-league and player-development operation is underway, and it’s a priority. (As it should be.) At the major-league level, the Cardinals don’t fit the “all-in mode for 2025, and we’ve known that for a while. This is nothing new.

“Do I wish the direction was all-in? Of course,” Arenado said. “But is this what’s probably best for the Cardinals? Probably.”

At no point did Arenado bark at the Cardinals to move him. Mozeliak reaffirmed this during the offseason. “He is not demanding a trade,” Mozeliak said in December. “He’s not telling me I have to do it, but I think in the best interest of both sides, I’d like to try to find him someplace to land.”

That was the agreement between Mozeliak and Arenado. That was business. It made sense for the Cardinals to gauge the market for trade interest in Arenado. It made sense for Arenado to flex his no-trade card as a way to control his destination and fate. It was all business.

And now it’s time to concentrate on the most important thing. And for Arenado, that’s doing everything possible to make sure 2025 can be better than 2024. Having concern over his motivational level and happiness is a waste of time and emotions.

This proud dude despised his career-low 16 home runs and .394 slugging percentage in 2024. It was the poorest season of a distinguished career, and Arenado was disgusted by it.

It’s good to know that he’s fully charged with a single-minded purpose to become more imposing and dangerous at the plate. This attitude can only be positive for Arenado and his teammates. Arenado’s brainspace is unclogged as he begins camp, and this is precisely what we should want.

“Did I sit here in the offseason and think I wasn’t coming back? No, I knew there was always a chance of me coming back, so I’m prepared to be here,” Arenado told reporters Sunday. “The one thing about this place, I’m very comfortable. I know it. That’s going to help me get ready for the season. And I’m in the right place. I feel ready. I have a lot to prove. Last year was not what I want Cardinals fans to know me as, so I see this as an opportunity to change that.”

Arenado also added this, and his honesty is appreciated: “If I was a better player last year, you know, maybe things would be a little bit different. So I’m really focused on that.”

I’m more interested in what will or can happen next, so I’m turning the page. The Cardinals will have their first exhibition game on Saturday. Only six days from now. Their regular-season opening game – which is also the tradition-rich home opener at Busch – is just 33 days after that.

With that in mind, here’s my take on a few areas, and I’ll lay all of this out by asking questions … and answering them.

ISN’T THIS HAPPY TALK IN JUPITER NOTHING MORE THAN AN EXERCISE IN PUBLIC RELATIONS? In other words, did Arenado come to camp and say what everybody wanted to hear in an effort to show that he’s a happy camper? Did the Cardinals say nice things about Arenado to give the impression the ballclub is united and at peace? Well, I believe the Sunday comments were sincere. And they were also in line with what I’ve been saying and predicting for weeks now: once this was over (trade or no trade) it was time to get to work, and it will be in Arenado’s best interests to have an upbeat persona and put up bigger numbers in 2025.

If any of you out there want to be cynical or skeptical and dismiss Sunday’s positive-vibe development as farce or a sideshow or whatever … hey, be my guest. Go for it. Believe as you wish. Because nothing that I will say here is going to change any of the suspicious minds. And none of the suspicious minds will change my view. Because I was expressing these views long before it became safe or fashionable to do so. (There I go again, being the Obnoxious Bernie.)

IS A TRADE STILL POSSIBLE? Of course. But can we take a break from the hyperventilating? We’ll see some rumors being circulated at some point … because that’s how it works in this desperate media age … but I wouldn’t expect trade talk to move to the forefront unless a contending team loses its starting third baseman to injury. And even then (A) the Cardinals aren’t going to give Arenado away for a few cases of Gatorade, and (B) he doesn’t have to consent to a trade unless he’s enthusiastic about the team and its location. Finally, if Arenado reinflates his offensive performance, he’ll be more marketable to contending teams before the July 31 trading deadline. If anything heats up, that’s a logical time.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with [Arenado] and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said Sunday. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire, or chasing injuries, or chasing things like that.”

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE CARDINALS ARE GOOD? If the Redbirds emerge as a surprising team that has a legitimate chance to contend for a playoff spot, I’m not sure why they’d rush to trade Arenado in July – especially if he’s showing a revival offensively. As I’ve written repeatedly this offseason: from a baseball-only perspective, the Cardinals are a more complete squad with Arenado starting at third. Last season ‘Nado was a Gold Glove finalist and one of the best defenders in the majors at third base last season. Using the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement based only on the games he played at third base, Arenado’s WAR (3.4) was sixth best among all big-league third baseman. His offense, while down, was still higher than the overall MLB offensive performance at third base last year. More on that later.

DOESN’T ST. LOUIS OWNERSHIP WANT TO SAVE PAYROLL DOLLARS? Yeah, but that’s already happened. St. Louis could have traded starting pitcher Erick Fedde but didn’t. They could have traded closer Ryan Helsley and didn’t. Both pitchers can become free agents after the season, and I advocated moving them … which the Cardinals declined to do. Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said the team wouldn’t make any additional payroll cuts if Arenado remained with the team. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cardinals have a projected opening 26-man payroll of $146.7 million, and a 40-man competitive balance tax payroll of $163.4 million. The Cards rank 18th among the 30 teams in both categories, and that’s a different topic for another day. I’ve been saying/writing this for a while, but I don’t care much about payroll this season. I will care a helluva lot more about payroll after Mozeliak leaves office, and only then can we begin to gain an understanding of what Chaim Bloom plans to do … or, more on point, it’s about what the DeWitt-Bloom team will do.

The Cardinals aren’t spending enough to make a more earnest push for a postseason spot in 2025, but I went into this past offseason thinking their ‘25 payroll would be a lot lower than it is. The Bloom Plan to restore the player-development and minor-league departments to previously high standards is a welcome initiative, and that’s where additional investments should go. Of course the Cardinals should strongly consider adding to their bench strength and bullpen and can do that economically. I’m being realistic about this and have no reason to make irrelevant payroll demands of the Cardinals as they prepare for 2025.

HOW DOES ARENADO IMPROVE OFFENSIVELY? Let’s start with this: It would be sweet for Arenado, the team and the fans to see him boost his offensive profile. But I’ve written about this during the offseason and am happy to repeat it now: Arenado is an above-average hitter at the third-base position.

Here’s what I’m talking about using only Arenado’s plate appearances as a third baseman, with no designated hitter numbers in the mix.

— In 2024, MLB third basemen collectively hit .242 with a .308 onbase percentage and .393 slug. And they were three percent below league average offensively per park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+).

— In 2024, as a third baseman, Arenado batted .277 with a .329 onbase percentage and .403 slug – and was six percent above league average offensively. My point is, Arenado was a disappointment offensively last season – but he wasn’t a disaster.

OK, BUT HOW DOES ARENADO DO MORE DAMAGE AS A HITTER IN 2025? It’s such a compelling question and I’ve been pondering and researching this because I’m intrigued by his potential for a good comeback on the offensive side of his game. But now that Arenado is “back” let’s review them again. I’ve also updated some of this stuff by doing more research.

1) Pull the ball – and go airborne with it – more frequently. Last season when Arenado pulled a fly ball (to left field) he went 13 for 43 (.302) with 10 homers and a 1.023 slugging percentage. When we add his pulled line drives to Arenado’s 2024 profile, he went 52 for 105 (.495) with 12 doubles, 13 homers and a .981 slugging percentage.

2) In a related note … last season Arenado has his lowest fly-ball rate and highest ground-ball rate since 2018 … and before that we’ve have to go back his rookie season (2013) to find the GB/FLY ratio worse than his 2024 profile.

3) A faster bat speed would benefit him. And that’s what he worked on all winter, and in a variety of ways. I went back today and checked this Statcast information and expanded on it some. In 2024, Arenado’s three fastest bat-speed readings occurred in July, August, May and June. In 333 at-bats during those four quickest-bat months, he batted .291 and slugged .459 with 14 doubles and 13 homers.

4) Arenado crushed left-handed pitching during his career through 2022. But that suddenly stopped over the last two seasons. In 277 at-bats vs. lefties in 2023-2024 combined, Arenado batted .227 with a .383 slugging percentage. A big problem in this downturn was a .226 batting average in balls in play. And yes, luck is a factor in hitting performance – especially for a guy like Arenado, who has excellent contact skills with a low percentage of strikeouts and swings-and-messes. Based on the batted ball metrics against lefties over the past two seasons, Arenado had an expected batting average of .275 instead of an actual batting average of .227. That’s a 48-point difference. And it was much the same with his slugging percentage vs. LH pitchers over the past two seasons; his expected slug was .426 instead of the actual .383. That’s a 43-point difference.

5) There was another factor: too many ground balls against lefties. Over the past two seasons Arenado put 85 grounders in play against LH pitchers and batted .153 with a .165 slug. But when he connected on a fly ball against lefties (63 times) he slugged .617. When he drilled a line drive on lefties (62 times) he slugged .887.

6) Become a road warrior. Last week I mentioned that Arenado has actually hit well at Busch Stadium over the past two seasons – doing so despite an overall decrease in his offense.

Here’s the relevant information:

Road, 2023-2024: .247 average. .295 onbase pct., .407 slug.

Home: 2023-2024: .294 average, .349 onbase pct, .450 slug.

Per wRC+, Arenado was 11 percent below league average offensively on the road over the past two seasons – and 19% above average offensively at Busch Stadium.

That really doesn’t make sense, right? If those numbers were flipped around, and you saw that Arenado was 11 percent below average offensively at Busch Stadium and 19% above average on the road, your response would probably be something like, “I can see that, because it’s easier for Cardinal hitters to put up better numbers on the road compared to home.”

Indeed, Busch is a challenging playground for right-handed batters. So if a hitter (Arenaso) can pump a .450 slugging percentage in a home ballpark that favors pitchers, then he should be able to do it on the road. And that point resonates with me on Arenado.

Which is why I don’t think it’s loony-tunes to expect Arenado to have something of a revival offensively in 2025.

WHAT DOES ARENADO’S “RETURN” MEAN FOR YOUNGER HITTERS? OK, here’s what I think. Barring injury, nothing will change with the plan to give Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker around 550 or more plate appearances in 2025. In particular, Gorman won’t lose a bunch of at-bats just because the initial plan to start him at third base in the event of an Arenado trade. Gorman will play second base. He’ll get some turns at third base against right-handed starting pitchers when Arenado has the day off. And Gorman can be kept busy at DH when he isn’t in the lineup at second base or third base. On days when Gorman plays 2B, we’d expect to see Brendan Donovan playing in left field most of the time.

With Gorman eating into the number of at-bats available to left-handed batters at the designated hitter spot when the other team starts a lefty pitcher, Alec Burleson is the most likely hitter to lose at-bats because of Gorman being utilized more often at DH. Gorman is in the majors because of his power-hitting potential. He isn’t in the majors because of his fielding prowess.

The rest of the stuff will be sorted out over time, and so why rush into speculation? We will have many opportunities to discuss the meaning of it all for the pertinent hitters as spring training warms up, the exhibition games begin, and the Cardinals and every other team begin the process of zoning in on roster spots and lineup decisions. That’s why I chose not to cover every variable right now. And it will be up to Marmol to figure out a way to keep as many position players involved as possible … and give each of them a healthy dose of at-bats. That’s why the front office promoted him to manager in 2022 at the age of 35. Because the bosses thought he was ready. And this will Marmol’s fourth season in the manager’s chair. With Bloom inheriting the top front office job after the 2025 season, this is a big year for Oli.

WILL ARENADO BE A MORE POSITIVE PRESENCE IN THE CLUBHOUSE? I would hope so — but can’t assume anything. Among position players, he’s the elder statesman now. He can set the tone. He can set the example. He can invest in his younger teammates, and I sincerely believe they’d be fired up to have Uncle Nolan making a concerted effort to be their jefe.

WILL FANS RESPOND FAVORABLY TO ARENADO BEING IN PLACE? To an extent, yeah. But that’s up to each and every individual fan. Having Arenado at third base makes the Cardinals a more capable team, but that only goes so far. Many players and pitchers would have to come through with unexpectedly good seasons to re-energize the fan base. The fans have many legitimate grievances. Some of the grievances are misplaced or exaggerated. But no doubt, the disappointment has turned into more anger … and that  anger is festering. And in these hostile conditions, fans seem to be bickering with each other.

More than anything they want to see Mozeliak go, and Marmol go, and DeWitt sell the team. How can one season rinse away so many bad feelings.

Arenado is happy in Jupiter, but here in St. Louis, the unhappiness continues to spread. It’s becoming some sort of “I’m madder than you are!” competition.

I don’t think Arenado’s homecoming will foster tranquility.

I don’t even think actual tranquilizers can do that.

This season was NEVER going to be a full reset, so I’m glad Arenado is still at third base.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie