Bernie’s Redbird Review: Welcome Home, Tommy Pham. The Cardinals Need You.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Welcome home, Tommy Pham.

It’s hard to believe that Pham is 36 years old. But as a developing Cardinal prospect who got knocked down by injuries and a serious vision problem, Pham took the long road to the majors. And now he’s taken a long road back to St. Louis after the front office made the mistake of trading him to Tampa Bay at the trading deadline in 2018.

Pham was 30 at the time. But he’s made many stops covering many miles since he last wore the Birds on the Bat. Tampa Bay, San Diego, Cincinnati, Boston, the NY Mets, Arizona, the Chicago White Sox. And now he’s back, home at last.

I love what Cardinals manager Oli Marmol had to say when asked about the trade that brought Pham to the Cardinals.

“We didn’t just get a right handed bat, we got a guy that lives and dies for winning baseball games,” Marmol told media at Busch Stadium on Monday. “That’s who he is. And him walking through those doors is going to be very meaningful.”

Pham is edgy. He can be bristly. He speaks his mind. Always. And that made manager Mike Matheny nervous. Unless the voice was coming from one of the two or three players that Matheny wanted to hear from – basically, veterans that the manager feared – he had no use for mavericks who had the audacity to question something or offer an independent opinion that didn’t fit with cult-like groupthink.

Pham also fired up a blowtorch in a spring-training story published by Sports Illustrated in 2018. Throwing in a few nasty words – OK, he cursed – Pham questioned the Cardinals’ belief in him during his struggles and adversity-filled setbacks as a prospect.

As Pham told SI at the time: “They said, “We believed you could do it all along. I said, ‘If that was the F-ing case, then why was I demoted to Triple A? can’t entirely say they were on my side.”

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak claimed to be unmoved and unbothered by Pham’s assertions.

“I was not overly offended by what he said,” Mozeliak said in April of 2018. “I wouldn’t have said the F-word as much as he used it. But, in all seriousness, I think Tommy is being Tommy. My takeaway from that, at least I hope his takeaway in the end, is, people did believe in him. Because if they didn’t, he would’ve been released. We’ve all been around this game long enough, we know how it works. There were enough people that did believe in him that wanted to stick by him. So, in the end, I’m grateful that we did. That was exactly my message to him.”

That sounds nice and all, but Mozeliak traded Pham out of the organization a few months later. Pham was having a brutal season with batted-ball luck in 2018. And yes, that’s a real thing. Despite a preposterously high hard-contact rate –50 percent! – Pham batted .248 with a .399 slugging percentage for St. Louis before the trade. Based on quality of contact, Pham had an expected batting average of .283 and an expected slug of .498. No matter. The Rays were smart enough to see Pham’s underlying metrics and made an astute trade. Pham was sent to the Rays for a bust outfielder (Justin Williams) and the volatile reliever Genesis Cabrera. Matheny was fired before the Cardinals traded Pham that summer.

Pham’s personality can definitely rankle sensitive people who prefer silence, happy talk, or buddy-buddy arrangements in which players protect each other’s backs instead of speaking the truth.

Pham played his ass off for the Cardinals. He still plays that way, even for the dreadful White Sox this season. But Pham’s his intensity wasn’t for everybody – especially when he’s present in a soft clubhouse that lacks accountability. That’s probably why he had so many short shifts with several teams. (I can’t blame him for punching Joc Pederson in a dispute over a fantasy football league. They were playing for opposite teams at the time. So it’s not like Pham physically went after a teammate. And, hey, wouldn’t you want to take a swing at Pederson? I’m kidding. Maybe not.)

I respect Mozeliak for wanting Pham to come back. According to the Post-Dispatch, Pham lobbied the Cardinals for a job this year in spring training. The Cardinals took a pass, but finally said yes, and pursued him as part of the deal that added starting pitcher Erick Fedde. I’ll be honest here; I didn’t think Mozeliak would make a bid for Pham’s services. But it was the right move, the smart move, and a necessary move.

You may not remember this, but Pham enlivened a dormant offense back in 2015 in his first real run of playing time with the Cardinals. In 52 games starting on July 3, Pham batted .268 with a .347 onbase percentage and .477 slug and posted a wRC+ that was 27 percent above league average offensively. He also stepped up to smash a pinch-hit solo home run off Jon Lester in the 8th inning to increase the Cardinals’ lead to 2-0. They went on to beat the Cubs in Game 1 of the 2015 NLDS. Money.

I also respect Marmol for understanding Pham and what makes Tommy click. Marmol isn’t afraid to build a relationship with Pham and will welcome Pham’s views on baseball. Marmol is a little different than some managers; he likes to be challenged and can handle dissent. He truly does have an “open door” policy. Pham is a highly intelligent man who was way ahead of the curve in tapping into advanced metrics as a way to study his profile, discover what he could do better, and make the necessary changes. His self-scouting is done at a higher level, and it’s one of the reasons why Pham has always had a high walk rate and the ability to get on base at a good percentage. And his career strikeout rate, 23 percent, is more than acceptable for this era of baseball.

Call me stupid – or whatever you want to call me – but after watching the Cardinals sleepwalk through a disgusting, no-show loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday. The boys were embarrassed by mediocre lefty Martin Perez, and took some of the sorriest at-bats you’ll ever see by a professional team. I know it was at the end of a road trip and they wanted to get home — but this was ridiculious.

There’s still a part of this team that I don’t trust; I’ve seen their hitters mail it in too many times. Urgency ain’t optional. Tommy Pham knows this. He won’t succumb to any possible temptation to turn complacent. And that’s good for a team that doesn’t seem to fully understand that you have to go at it hard, even when the schedule is tough and you’re worn down. Other teams get tired too. The Cardinals will need to fight like hell to make the playoffs, and there’s no time for taking shifting into neutral to take little mental breaks. This team has been too flat over the last two-plus weeks, going 14-14 and losing some of their fire. It’s time to play ball. 

Pham, of course, brings a right-handed swing to the proceedings. A right-handed swing with a history of punishing left-handed pitching. And the Cardinals need that. They need that desperately. St. Louis ranks 29th among the 30 MLB teams this season in offensive performance vs. lefties.

Here’s what Pham brings to the competition against left-handed pitchers:

This season: .255 average, .377 onbase percentage, .471 slug, a 14.8 percent walk rate and a wRC+ that’s 41 percent above league average offensively. Forget about the small-sample nonsense; Pham has done this throughout his career.

Pham vs. lefties since 2015: .271 average, .381 OBP, .453 slug, 14.8 percent walk rate, and a wRC+ that’s 30 percent above league average offensively. Pham’s 2024 walk rate vs. lefties is exactly the same as his career walk rate against them. That’s Pham.

And it’s not as if Pham is feeble against right-handed throwers. He doesn’t have a high slugging percentage against them this season. But that can be attributed to having unfortunate luck on balls in play. He has a 40% hard-hit rate at age 36. That gives him an expected batting average of .284 and an expected .433 slug against all pitching, For his career, Pham has a slash line of .256/.338/.423 vs. righties and a wRC+ that’s 10 percent higher than the league average.

The Cardinals have a more capable offense with Pham back on board. He should start every game against left-handed starting pitchers, and Marmol can certainly put him to work against RHP. Pham’s defense is a problem; in terms of defensive runs saved he’s a minus 2 in left field, a minus 7 in center, and a minus 4 in right field. But if the Cardinals stick him in left field or right – perhaps as part of a platoon – Pham can play respectable defense. And occasional starts in CF (against lefties) is worth a try. But yeah, the Cardinals lose something defensively when Michael Siani isn’t in center field … but that already was the case with Dylan Carlson.

The Arizona Diamondbacks added Pham at the trading deadline last season, and rushed all the way to the World Series. Pham was an impact bat in October, batting .279 with a .475 slug during the postseason. He has three doubles, three homers, scored 10 runs and drove in four. And Pham hit .421 in the World Series loss to Texas. Teams that have a chance to win like to bring in Pham. In 31 career postseason games, Pham has a .313 average and .513 slug — with five coubles, six homers, 10 RBIs and 15 runs scored. He’s fearless. And that’s always a welcome attribute in pressurized situations. The Cardinals know him well. And that’s why it made sense to bring Pham back to the family. It was Tommy time again.

Please pardon my typos …

And thanks as always for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.