Bernie’s Redbird Review: With 50 Games To Go, The Cardinals Have A Lot Of Problems.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

With their schedule down to 50 games, the Cardinals (57-55) don’t look like a postseason-bound team. It doesn’t mean they’re doomed. They’re still breathing in races for the NL Central title and the league’s wild-card derby.

It’s time for another reality check. The recent trends are discouraging, and that should be recognized instead of losing ourselves in a blathering and childlike palaver of ceaseless Happy Talk. We can be adults here, yes?

The Cardinals can only make the playoffs by rising above their seeping mediocrity. And that’s just part of it. Next is the challenge of successfully steering their way through a brutally tough schedule.

The Redbirds must get significantly improved results from their anesthetized offense, a warping starting rotation, and an overall lack of consistency. And we can’t expect the bullpen to rescue the team from their own flaws and fiascoes.

And personally speaking, I’m declaring a moratorium on using the word “urgency” with this team. I don’t want to hear manager Oli Marmol praising his players for being “convicted” in their desire to outwrestle other contenders to earn a playoff spot. On too many occasions, the Cardinals reveal an alarmingly low level of passion for competing. And they’re easily discouraged.

Sunday night’s 6-2 loss to the Cubs was a joke for several reasons, but this  bothered me the most: After Masyn Winn put the Cards up 2-0 with his two-run homer in the third, the St. Louis offense went into full zombie mode, producing one hit in the final 22. They reached base only three times in the last 24 plate appearances Sunday.

The Cardinals had ample opportunities to score all weekend but batted .120 with runners in scoring position overall and were 2 for 19 (.105) with RISP in their three losses. The Cubs were kind enough to donate a victory to the visitors on Saturday. This act of charity prevented the Cardinals from losing all four games to a team with a losing record.

Miles Mikolas was lousy again on Sunday, giving up a 2-0 lead by allowing four runs in four innings. The Cardinals dropped to 11-12 in his starts this season, and Mikolas has a 7.14 ERA in those dozen team losses.

So you’ll have to excuse me for guffawing at this post-game quote …

“If we’re going to turn it on, we’ve got to turn it on now,” Mikolas told media people after the game. “I know we’ve got a good stretch coming up against winning ball clubs — teams that if we make the playoffs we’re probably going to see like the Dodgers and Padres — so now is the time to really turn it on.”

I didn’t realize that turning on a high-intensity drive to win games is something controlled by an on/off switch or by connecting to wi-fi. Silly me, for thinking the Cardinals had the aggressive mindset of showing up to “turn it on” for every game. I guess not. And that right there tells us a lot about this team.

Here’s an updated look at the “State of the Cardinals” and the factors working against them in a 50-game push that will determine their fate.

1. DISCOURAGING TRENDS

– The Cardinals are 7-9 since the All-Star break, with 13 of the 16 games coming against opponents that were no better than two games above .500.

– The Redbirds are 9-13 in their last 22. And 16-17 in their last 33. And 21-20 in their last 41 games. Does this look like a momentum-churning team that’s about to go off on a delirious stretch of dominant winning?

– The Cardinals have a 26-31 record (.456) against winning teams, are 17-19 in the NL Central, have a losing record (28-30) on the road, and have a modest 29-25 mark at home. They’re 5-7 in their last 12 games at Busch Stadium and have a losing record (8-9) in their ballpark since June 26.

2. THE ONEROUS REMAINING SCHEDULE

* 82 percent of the games will be against opponents that have a better run differential than the Cardinals.

* 70 percent are against teams that currently have winning records.

* 60 percent are against opponents that currently have a better record than the Cardinals.

*48 percent are against opponents that currently hold a postseason spot.

* 70 percent are against teams that have a postseason claim ticket in hand now – or are no worse than 4 and ½ games out of a playoff spot.

There aren’t many soft spots over the next 50 games, with only 30 percent of the conflicts coming against teams that have losing records.

According to Tankathon, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is the fourth-toughest in the majors, after the Rays, Royals and Rockies.

3. THE INCREASINGLY LONG ODDS

Fangraphs projects a 25-25 record for St. Louis over the remaining 50 games, and that may be a tad optimistic. The Fangraphs forecast has the Cardinals ending up with an 82-80 mark. If accurate, that would leave the Redbirds out of the postseason tournament.

Excluding the three current division leaders, four wild-card candidates have a higher projected win total than St. Louis – Braves 88, Diamondbacks 87, Padres 87 and Mets 84. According to the million game simulations done by the brilliant Clay Davenport, the third NL wild-card team averaged 86.1 wins.

Current probability of the Cardinals making the playoffs:

* Baseball Prospectus 24.3 percent
* Clay Davenport 22.08%
* Fangraphs 20.8%.

4. THE WHEEZING OFFENSE

Every now and then the Cardinals go on a scoring spree that charms us into believing that the offense is straightening out and becoming more capable. But the truth of the matter can be found as easily as looking at the MLB and NL rankings. That takes in the entire season and discards any small sample sizes that are mixed in for cherry picking.

The Cardinals’ average of 4.18 runs per game is 14th among the 15 NL teams and 22nd overall. Among NL teams they’re 11th in slugging, 10th in onbase percentage, and 10th in homers.

The most uninspiring aspect of the weak St. Louis attack is its performance with runners in scoring position this season. The Cardinals rank 26th in batting average, 28th in onbase percentage and 29th in slugging. At .345, the Cardinals have the worst slugging percentage by an NL team.

5. THE FUTILITY VS. LEFT-HANDED PITCHERS

The retching continued in the series against the Cubs, with the Cards batting .213 vs. Chicago’s lefties. That includes a 3 for 31 showing (.097) over the final three games.

For the season, the Cardinals rank 29th in the majors against lefties in batting average (.228), onbase percentage (.290), slugging (.349) and OPS (.639).

This condition is even more depressing when the Cardinals have runners in scoring position. When facing lefthanders in RISP scenarios the Cardinals rank 29th in batting average (.214) and onbase percentage and are dead last in slugging percentage (.300) and OPS (.639). Horrendous.

In facing St. Louis batters 733 times this season, left-handed starters have a 4.00 ERA and have held Cardinal hitters to a .678 OPS. But the problems run deeper than that. Here’s something that’s been largely overlooked: lefty relievers have faced 548 St. Louis hitters and have a 3.07 ERA this season. And overmatched Cardinal hitters have batted a faint .205 against lefty relievers with a .586 OPS. This ailment is usually framed along the lines of how the Cardinals do against left-handed starters. Don’t forget their frequent submission to lefty relievers.

The only regular Cardinals that have an above-average wRC+ against lefties this season are Willson Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt and Masyn Winn. All others are below average — or simply awful — against lefties. Goldschmidt gets singled out a lot for his down season — much of of it justified — but there’s nothing wrong with his .804 OPS vs. lefties in 2024.

One problem: some of STL’s best hitters — Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson — aren’t effective against left-handed pitching. Sure, we can understand that with the left-handed hitters (Burleson, Donovan, Nootbaar.) But Arenado has a slash line of .243/.266/.408 against LHP this season. And Burleson is a liability against lefties. For all of the damage that Burly does against right-handed pitching, his slash line against left-handed pitching is an abysmal .194/.221/.287. There is no reason to have him in the lineup when the other side has a lefty starter on the mound.

6. THE DETERIORATING ROTATION

— Through their first 71 games of the season, St. Louis had a 4.08 starting-pitching ERA that ranked 15th overall. And in the 71 games, Cards starters limited opponents to a .246 average, .402 slug and an average of 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Not great … but pretty good.

— In the 41 games played since June 18, St. Louis starters rank 22nd in the majors with a 5.05 ERA and opponents have banged out a .274 average and .463 slug plus a rate of 1.4 homers per nine innings. The group’s collective swing-and-miss and strikeout rates decreased over that time.

Here’s another way to look at how certain parts of the rotation have performed since June 18 …

* Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy have a collective 3.21 ERA in seven starts – six made by Pallante.

* All other St. Louis starters including Nick Fedde, Matthew Liberatore and Gordon Graceffo: 34 starts and collective 5.47 ERA.

The four principal starters since June 18:

* Miles Mikolas: eight starts, 6.14 ERA
* Kyle Gibson: seven starts, 5.40 ERA
* Sonny Gray: seven starts, 5.10 ERA
* Lance Lynn: seven starts, 4.66 ERA.

The Cardinals are 21-20 since June 18th, and the overall slippage of the starting pitching is high on the list of concerns, though I trust that Fedde will improve. In STL’s 20 losses since June 18, rotation members were pounded for a 7.18 ERA.

The starting pitcher ERA isn’t the only factor. Deficient run support remains an issue. In four of the team’s 20 losses since June 18, the Cardinals went down despite receiving a quality start from rotation personnel.

7. THE WARNING SIGNS FROM THE BULLPEN 

The Cardinals were ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 bullpen ERA through July 8, and put up a record of 48-42 in the first 90 games of the campaign.

Since returning from their July 9 off day, the Cardinals rank 22nd in the majors with a 4.64 bullpen ERA and are 9-13. The bullpen strikeout rate has plummeted to 18.7 percent over the last 22 games.

As a staff, the Cardinals are giving up more runs over the last month or so. Through July 4, the Redbirds ranked 12th in the majors with an overall 3.85 ERA. But there’s been some bleeding. The Cardinals have a 12-14 record and 4.84 team ERA (23rd) since July 5.

I’m not trying to bum anyone out.

I’m not trying to be negative.

I’m just presenting the facts.

The Cardinals obviously have a helluva of things to correct and improve on between now and game No. 162. Including Monday’s makeup game against the Mets, the Cardinals will play just one losing team (the Reds) over their next 10 series. The imminent block of schedule features 28 games against the Mets, Rays, Royals, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, Yankees and Mariners.

I’ll be back with more later on …

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.