Bernie’s World Series Review: 9 Reasons Why The Dodgers Are Beating The Yankees.

Unless you wagered money on the Dodgers or remain charged and charmed by Freddie Freeman’s home-run heroics, the 2024 World Series is a dud.

I was hoping for a seven-game drama filled with twists and turns and mind-bending moments. You know, like Game 6 of the 2011 World Series – minus the Cardinals, of course. But the anticipated basebrawl between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers has about as much suspense as a Russian presidential election.

The Dodgers won two at home, traveled to New York, and won again on Monday night to open a 3-0 series lead. As we know, the Yankees must win four in a row to make history by becoming the first team in World Series history to triumph after losing the first three games. Good luck.

Why are the Dodgers tank-rolling the Yankees?

Many reasons.

In no particular order:

1. The Yankees have scored just seven runs in three games. They are batting .186, slugging an anemic .294, and have performed 37 percent below average offensively per wRC+. Since leading Game 1 by a 3-2 score in the top of the 10th inning, the Yankees have been outscored 14-4 and out-homered 5-2. Let’s look at this another way. In the first three games the Yankees scored three ninth-inning runs to reduce LA’s lead, and scored another run in the 10th inning of Game 1. So in the first eight innings of these games, the Yankees have scored only three runs over 24 innings. And New York is 4 for 20 overall with runners in scoring position.

2. Aaron Judge is inoperative. At 6-7, the mountainous Yankee team captain is the tallest and largest player in the major leagues. And over the last eight seasons, he’s been one of the prolifically excellent hitters in modern big-league history. But the Dodgers have made Judge look small. He’s 1 for 12 in the series with seven strikeouts. That includes an 0-3 ledger (and two strikeouts) with runners in scoring position. For the entire postseason, Judge is batting .140 overall with a glaring 37.7 percent strikeout rate. And he’s 0 for 10 (seven on strikeouts) with runners in scoring position.

One more Judge stat, and this is almost incomprehensible. This postseason he’s chased non-strikes out of the zone at a rate of just under 38 percent. Too much! And Judge can’t lay off, which is why the Los Angeles pitchers continue to bait him with success. In 12 at-bats that have ended with Judge chasing a pitch out of the strike zone, he’s 0 for 12 with 11 strikeouts.

3. Freddie Freeman and October Glory: In the first three games of this World Series, Freeman has homered three times and driven in seven runs in 12 at-bats. As a team the Yankees also have three home runs and seven RBIs in this World Series … but in 102 at-bats. Yep. True fact. Freddie Freeman, by himself, has matched the HR and RBI production of the entire Yankees team. Amazing. And the guy couldn’t even play in two of the final three NLCS games because of a bad ankle.

4. Judge is hardly alone in the case of the batting-box blues. Among the Yankee regulars, only Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto are batting over .250. And four other Yankees – Gleyber Torres, Jazz Chisholm, Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe – have an OPS of .630 or worse. The starting NY infield has collectively gone 8 for 45 (.181) with one extra-base hit, a lone RBI and a 26.4 percent strikeout rate.

5. The Los Angeles lineup is much deeper and smarter than the New York lineup. The Dodgers aren’t exactly tearing it up – as a team they’re hitting .213 for the series – but they’re getting contributions from a lot of hitters. Through the first three games, five Dodgers are batting .273 or higher, six have knocked in runs, six have at least one extra-base hit, and seven have scored. And the Dodgers have compensated for a low team batting average by making the hits count. So far 11 of LA’s 20 hits have gone for extra bases, and the Dodgers are out-slugging the Yankees .457 to .294.

With a wide distribution of offense, the Dodgers succeeded in winning three games despite having Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani combine for a .189 average and two RBIs in 28 plate appearances. Another difference: the Dodgers don’t get themselves out by chasing too many bad pitches. That’s why LA has the edge in contact rate (79% to 64%) and has struck out only 17 times compared to New York’s 31.

6. One team has thrived on excellent starting pitching. And it isn’t the Yankees. Gerrit Cole pitched well for the Yankees in Game 1. But in the next two starts, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt lasted an average of only three innings, getting strafed for a 10.50 ERA and four homers. Heading into the series, New York’s starting pitching was supposed to give the Yankees an advantage over the Dodgers. It hasn’t played out that way. Los Angeles starters (in order) Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler have thrown 16 and ⅔ innings at the Yankees, allowing only three earned runs for a 1.62 ERA. The bullpens have been about even, but Yankee manager Aaron Boone had to cover more innings with his relievers and has made some puzzling choices. He’s catching a lot of hell from Yankee fans and NY media.

7. Managing. Defense. Baserunning: I don’t think you want me to go into a lengthy review of all of these areas. But  Boone has been criticized for a number of things, including those pitching/bullpen decisions Why did he pull Gerrit Cole so soon in Game 1? Why did Boone go all Mike Matheny-Michael Wacha and bring in a rusty and physically compromised pitcher that hadn’t pitched in 28 days to serve up Freeman’s game-winning missile to terminate the Yanks in Game 1? Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been virtually flawless during the first three games. The Yankee defense has been raggedy; two misplays (Soto, Torres) probably cost them Game 1. And it hasn’t been much better after that. The Yankee baserunning isn’t sharp. The Dodgers are more opportunistic; the perfect example was Tommy Edman making an intelligent read on a shallow, fading fly ball to right in Game 3 – taking off from second base immediately to sprint home and give LA a 3-0 lead. The Yankees lost a key runner on the bases when the plodding Giancarlo Stanton was easily thrown out at home plate when trying to score from second base on a single to left. Dumb play.

8. You may have heard: former Cardinals are giving LA a lift. Tommy Edman is having a spectacular postseason, batting .345 with a .545 slugging percentage, five doubles, two homers, four steals, 13 RBIs and nine runs scored in 14 games. That haul includes his .364 average with two doubles and a homer in the three World Series games. Jack Flaherty got clobbered in two of his first four postseason starts but pitched two gems in crucial series-opening wins over the Mets (NLCS) and Yankees (World Series.) In the two pressure assignments Flaherty was touched for only two earned runs in 12 and ⅔ innings.

9. The Dodgers were steeled by hardship. Their starting rotation was virtually wiped out by injuries during the regular season, leaving manager Dave Roberts to scramble to fill multiple postseason starts with all-bullpen games. He will use that format again Tuesday in Game 4. I know the Dodgers have a monster payroll, but they still had to grind their way to 95 regular-season wins to outlast the Padres and the Diamondbacks and win the NL West. They survived a scare against the Padres in the NLDS, trailing in the series 2-1 and facing elimination with the final two games held in San Diego. But the Dodgers won two in a row to eliminate the Padres, disposed of the Mets in six games, and have pushed the Yankees into a big ditch. On the brink of having their season end, the Dodgers are 9-2 in the postseason after being down and in major danger vs. San Diego.

The Yankees had a relatively easy time of it in taking the AL East this season, then won two playoff rounds against Kansas City and Cleveland, two low-payroll teams with unimposing offenses. The Dodgers had to take a harder road than the Yankees to reach this point of the season, and that has made a difference in this matchup. The Dodgers will go for the World Series sweep on Tuesday evening.

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.