Weekend At Bernie: Good Times For Burleson, Tough Times For Goldschmidt, And Disappointing Times For Gray.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

The Cardinals (as you know) split a doubleheader in Atlanta on Saturday. Not to be greedy here, but the visitors should have won both games.

In the early game, the Redbirds let a 2-0 slip away to lose 3-2 in 10 innings. At least they rebounded for a 9-5 victory in the late game.

Let’s get to it …

HITTING SOME FUNGOES

* Baseball isn’t always fair to starting pitchers. Kyle Gibson turned in a terrific start for the Cardinals in Game 1, allowing just three hits and two walks in 6 and ⅔ innings. The Braves didn’t score on Gibson while he stood on the mound. He was removed by manager Oli Marmol after giving up a two-out single in the bottom of the seventh. Reliever Ryan Fernandez inherited Gibson’s runner and served up a two-run homer golfed into the right-field seats by Eddie Rosario.

* Watching the game in real time, I wasn’t thrilled when Marmol yanked Gibson there. The right-hander had disposed of Matt Olson (ground out) and Marcell Ozuna (strikeout) to open the seventh. I try to be fair, however, and I can understand Marmol’s reasons for making the move. The single off Gibson came on his 100th pitch of the game. The rookie Fernandez has been an excellent reliever for the Cardinals this season. He was fresh and ready to go. Fernandez had been solid against left-handed batters this season, holding them to .211 average before Saturday. Fernandez had allowed only one extra-base hit (a double) to LH hitters in his previous 19 relief appearances.

* Fernandez threw a flat slider and Rosario burned it. But Fernandez has been one of STL’s most trustworthy relievers in 2024, coming into Saturday’s appearance with the lowest ERA by a Cards reliever (1.74) since the end of April. I can only imagine the reaction if Gibson gave up a two-run homer after Marmol stayed with him and left Fernandez in the bullpen.

* The St. Louis bullpen has been fantastic but it’s ridiculous to expect these guys to be invincible just about every time they’re under pressure. Before Saturday’s loss, the Cardinals were 34-4 when leading after six innings. The problem Saturday was an offense that scored only two runs in 10 innings.

* After taking a 2-0 lead on Nolan Areando’s solo home run in the seventh, St. Louis hitters went 2 for 13 with a walk and four strikeouts the rest of the way. As we know by now, the Cardinals play a ton of low-scoring games that leave little margin for error. The underwhelming St. Louis offense frequently leaves the door open for opponents, and that can lead to trouble. The Cardinals are 4-22 this season when scoring two runs or fewer in a game.

* In Game Two, Sonny Gray was shelled for four home runs and five earned runs in seven innings. After the Cardinals staked Gray to what should have been a pretty comfortable 5-1 lead, four of the next 12 Atlanta hitters that confronted Gray took him deep for homers. In the middle of all that Brendan Donovan hommered to give the Cards a 6-2 lead, but a three-homer barrage against Gray in the sixth left the Braves down by a run, 6-5. The Cardinals put up three insurance runs in the ninth to win 9-5. Good job by reliever Kyle Leahy, who came up from Triple A Memphis and worked the final two innings to ice the Braves.

* Gray was walloped for a .786 slugging percentage in his start. But Gray was credited for a “win” only because the St. Louis offense saved him. That offense didn’t give Gibson much run support, and the Cards lost despite a winning performance by Gibson. Based on the actual pitching, Gibson deserved a win Saturday and didn’t get it. Gray probably deserved to lose — but he also struck out 10 Braves. And at least all four homers were solo shots. It was an odd start for him.

* OK. How strange of a start was this by Gray? Well, unless the StatHead search engine at Baseball Reference is fibbing or malfunctioning, Gray became the first Cardinals’ starting pitcher in franchise history to strike out at least 10 batters while giving up four home runs in a game.

* The Cardinals are 10-9 when Gibson starts a game this season. But in the nine Gibson starts that ended in defeat, the Cardinals scored 25 total runs – an average of 2.7 runs per game. And they scored three runs or fewer in seven of the nine Gibson starts that resulted in a loss. Just another reminder that pitcher won-lost records can be misleading and deceiving. Gray’s Saturday outing lowered his season ERA to 3.99.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: First-place Milwaukee beat Minnesota in extra innings Saturday night and lead the second-place Cardinals by 5.0 games in the NL Central … the Cardinals lead third-place Pirates by a game. Pittsburgh has won six in a row and and is 8-1 in its last nine … since rookie ace Paul Skenes joined the Pittsburgh rotation on May 11, the Pirates are 33-26 and have the third-best winning percentage (.559) in the National League over that time … since Skenes made his MLB debut, Pittsburgh’s 3.51 starting-pitching ERA is No. 1 in the NL and second to Seattle overall … the Cardinals are an NL-best 36-23 since May 12, which is 1 and ½ games better than the Phillies, who are second in the NL over that time … the Cardinals’ .610 winning percentage since Mother’s Day is No. 3 in the majors, with only Houston (.644) and Cleveland (.614) doing better … the Cardinals are 3-2 against the Braves this season and can win the season series with a victory in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.

TRENDS FOR SONNY GRAY: He has a 6.17 ERA in his last four starts, getting smacked for a .330 batting average, .347 onbase percentage, .588 slug, and a .934 OPS in the assignments. Gray has a 4.60 ERA in 13 starts since May 9. His eight quality starts on the season are tied for 46th among MLB pitchers.

LEADING MEN: In both games Oli Marmol went with a lineup that had Masyn Winn leading off, Alec Burleson batting second, and Willson Contreras hitting third. The top three hitters had an outstanding day collectively, going 12 for 28 (.429) with five RBIs and five runs scored. Over the two games, the top three spots in the STL lineup had 12 of the team’s 23 hits, five of the 11 RBIs, five of the 11 runs scored, and six of the seven hits with runners in scoring position.

BURLY BALL CONTINUES TO ROLL ON: This season Burleson leads the Cardinals in batting average (.292), RBIs (57) and total bases (160) and is second in slugging (.492) and OPS (.815.)

– Since June 2, Burleson’s 39 RBIs tops the National League and is tied with Aaron Judge for the most in majors.

– Burly’s 12 home runs since June 2 are tied for fifth in MLB.

— Burleson had only 39 RBIs, total, in 363 at–bats for the Cardinals during his first two seasons.

— Burleson has just as many RBIs (39) in 165 at-bats since June 2 this season.

– Burleson leads the majors with 32 RBIs since June 22. That’s because he’s been a spectacular 13 for 26 with runners in scoring position over that time. His 25 RBIs in RISP situations sine June 22 are the most in the majors. No other NL player has more than 17 RBIs with RISP since that date.

NO. 4 THROUGH NO. 9: During Saturday’s doubleheader the fourth-fifth-sixth-seventh-eighth-nine spots collectively had 11 hits in 47 at-bats (.234), struck out 18 times in 51 plate appearances (36%) and went 1 for 9 with six strikeouts when batting with runners in scoring position. But it wasn’t all bad. Arenado hit that solo home run in the day game, and in the night game Cardinals got a two-run blast from Nolan Gorman and the solo HR by Donovan. For the day Donovan drove in three runs, Lars Nootbaar went 3 for 7 with a double and a walk, and Michael Siani was 2 for 6 with a walk and scored two runs.

TOUGH TIMES FOR GOLDY

+ Paul Goldschmidt batted cleanup in both games and was hitless in eight at-bats with four strikeouts. And he was 0 for 2 with runners in scoring position. After going 14 for 50 (.280) with six extra-base hits and a .480 slugging percentage during his first 11 games in July, Goldschmidt is 0 for 12 in his last three games – and six of the 12 at-bats ended in strikeouts.

+ After struggling on Saturday, Goldschmidt is batting .225 with a .287 onbase percentage and .365 slugging percentage for 2024. His OPS+ is 17 percent below the league-average standard offensively. Goldschmidt has made 302 outs this season, and only five MLB hitters have made more outs than him: Anthony Volpe, Ezequiel Tovar, Maikel Garcia, Bryan De La Cruz, and Marcus Semien.

+ Among 145 big-league hitters that have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, Goldschmidt ranks No. 119 in batting average and slugging percentage and is No. 128 in onbase percentage and OPS.

+ Marmol continues to use Goldschmidt in the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 lineup spots. This isn’t going well. It’s an ongoing failure. This season, 31 major-league hitters have made at least 350 plate appearances in the 2-3-4 spots combined. Here’s where Goldy ranks among the 31 in several categories when batting second, third or fourth:

* .214 batting average, last
* .277 onbase percentage, last
* .353 slugging percentage, 29th of 31
* .629 OPS, last
* 28.3 percent strikeout rate, 30th of 31
* 80 wRC+, tied for last. (That wRC+ is 20 percent below league average.)

— When used at 2-3-4 in the lineup in ’24, Goldschmidt has batted .160 with runners in scoring position. That ranks last among the 41 hitters that have at least 75 plate appearances in RISP situations as the 2-3-4 hitter. He’s also last in slugging percentage (.198), OPS (.466) and wRC+ (41) when hitting with runners in scoring position and has the second worst strikeout rate.

— Goldschmidt has really good numbers when batting 5th this season. As I wrote last week, Marmol would be wise to ease some of the pressure on Goldy by using him much more frequently as a No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7 hitter. Marmol had Goldschmidt in the seventh spot for Sunday’s game against the Braves.

Thanks for reading …

Enjoy your Sunday.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.