Weekend At Bernie’s: Bad Moon Rising. Five Straight Losses By the Cardinals.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

The Cardinals went down – hard – in a 7-6 loss to the Dodgers on Friday at Busch Stadium. That’s five consecutive losses and a continuation of a horrendous August for this fading whatchamacallit. I use that word, only because I’m not sure what to call the Cardinals. Are they a postseason contender? Well, maybe by the math. But do they look like a contender? You already know the answer to that. They’re 60-62 and have spun into reverse after proudly rising to a season-best six games over .500 on July 8.

I see a bad moon rising. The Cardinals are 12-20 (.379) since July 10. The only team that’s been worse than St. Louis over that time are the derelict White Sox at 4-26. The Birds are 4-10 this month, 6-10 since the trade deadline, and 10-16 since the All-Star break. Next: two more weekend games to go against the Dodgers, then a day off, and then three at home against Milwaukee.

The Cardinals trail the first-place Brewers by a season-high 10 games. The Reds are also 10 games out, and the Cubs have inched their way to only a half–game behind Cincinnati and St. Louis. The Cardinals are four games out of the NL’s No. 3 wild-card spot, but there’s several teams stuck in the traffic snarl with them.

FRIDAY’S GAME: DID OLI MARMOL MAKE THE WRONG MOVE?

Miles Mikolas was having a terrific start Friday, but the Dodgers wiped out a 4-2 deficit and chased him out of the competition in the sixth inning.

For the first five innings Mikolas pitched around seven hits, allowed two runs, and impressively struck out seven batters without issuing a walk. Marmol rode with Mikolas into the sixth. Mookie Betts opened the fateful inning with a solo homer to cut the home team’s lead to 4-3. Mikolas retired the next two hitters, then was scratched for two consecutive infield singles. That was the frustrating part; it must be tough for a pitcher to get knocked out after a couple of two-out singles that avoided a capture by Cards shortstop Masyn Winn.

This is where I would like to talk about the wisdom of Marmol’s strategy. These types of situations can be handled in a number of ways, and it’s an automatic second-guess of any manager when his choice goes the wrong way. But I enjoy getting into some of the intricacies, so please join me …

– Marmol intervened and brought in reliever Andrew Kittredgethe move failed because the pitcher failed. Kittredge immediately gave up a tying RBI single to Miguel Rojas, then was pierced for a stunning, go-ahead three-run homer by the light-hitting Kevin Kiermaier. And in a flash the Dodgers had an instant 7-4 lead.

– Impact? Before the start of the sixth inning the Dodgers had a win expectancy of just 22 percent. But by the time Kiermaier rearranged the scoreboard with one swing, the Dodgers’ win expectancy was 84 percent. That sure happened fast.

– Did Marmol screw up by lifting Mikolas? It’s a matter of individual opinion and largely depends on how you look at it. Some would say Marmol should catch grief because his decision to change pitchers turned a 4-3 lead into a 7-4 deficit in a quick, unmerciful destruction. If you are the type of observer who believes that a manager should be ripped because the move didn’t work, then you would fault Marmol for the pitching change. And that is your prerogative.

– If you believe that Marmol had a valid reason for calling in Kittredge, that’s probably based on your knowledge of how hitters often take Mikolas apart during their third round of at-bats against him in a game.

– This season when Mikolas has faced a lineup for the third time, he’s been slapped for a 7.26 ERA, .280 average and .475 slugging percentage. There’s a larger point to make: Mikolas has the second-worst ERA (5.41) by a starting pitcher in MLB this season. And if we go back to the start of 2023, Mikolas ranks 33rd among 35 innings-qualified starters with a 5.04 ERA. Mikolas was effective for much of his outing on Friday … he was pitching better than anticipated. But this was temporary, because he isn’t a good pitcher.

– In my view, Marmol doesn’t have to apologize for giving the ball to Kittredge in that scenario. Coming into Friday, Kittredge hadn’t allowed a run in his last eight appearances, giving up only five hits and two walks in 7 and ⅓ innings. The single by Rojas wasn’t a desirable way for Kittredge to start the assignment, but Rojas is a .276 hitter, and .276 hitters can win matchups. And with the three-batter minimum in effect, Kittredge had to stay in the game.

– There was certainly a reason to have confidence in Kittredge in vs. Kiermaier, who entered Friday’s contest with a .195 average .305 slugging percentage and four homers. But Kitttredge obviously didn’t have the right stuff Friday, and Kiermaier jumped him. It happens. And just in case you’re wondering, there wasn’t much history between them; Kiermaier had been 0 for 2 against Kittredge for his career. That isn’t even worth mentioning, but I did so anyway in case there was a question about their previous batter vs. hitter encounters.

– Marmol’s move wasn’t the wrong move from a strategic standpoint. But again, if you believe that any move that explodes on the manager is the manager’s fault, then blame Marmol. I tend to look at a lot of factors to form my opinion before taking a side on these timeless (and fun) debates.

– The real problem here is Mikolas. For all that we make over his vulnerability against hitters the third time through the lineup, here’s what shouldn’t be overlooked: Mikolas also gets clobbered when confronting a lineup the second time through.

– This season in the second-time-through challenges, Mikolas has been lacerated for a 6.45 ERA, .315 average, .569 slug and 12 homers. Good grief. It’s not like Mikolas is invincible until he gets to the third cycle against the opponent’s lineup Far from it. And based on the way Kittredge has been pitching lately, the reliever was a smarter bet than Mikolas at that point.

– It was hardly crazy for Marmol to replace the second-worst starter in the majors (based on ERA) with two men on base and two out. If Kittredge puts out the fire, as he has done so often, then we aren’t talking about the manager mangling a game.

– When a manager has to use a terrible starting pitcher every fifth day or so, the chances of something going afoul are pretty damn strong.

– But what choice does Marmol have? Payroll salary shouldn’t matter, but that’s not how it works in the real world. Mikolas has a guaranteed spot because he’s being paid a sizable guaranteed salary this season and he will be paid a sizable salary again in 2025. I suppose Marmol could come out, bark, and say he’s replacing Mikolas in the rotation. And if he wanted to do that – and I don’t think he does – this would be one way to speed up a potential timetable for getting sacked.

BIRD BYTES

1) Friday was mixed-bag kind of night for the St. Louis offense. The Cards scored six runs, which is good. They swatted three homers, which is good. They went 2 for 5 with runners in scoring position, which is good.

2) I liked the two-run homer by Paul Goldschmidt, and the solo rockets from Masyn Winn and Pedro Pages. But after Pages singled in a two-out run in the sixth to cut LA’s lead to 7-6, the Cardinals shut down. The bats went into the wood chipper. Beginning with Victor Scott’s flyout to end the sixth, the Redbirds went 0 for 10 with two walks and four strikeouts for the remainder of the competition. The Cardinals had six hits and six walks in the game, and scored four of their six runs via the homer.

3) The Cardinals scored five or more runs for only the fourth time in 14 games this month, and it should have been enough for a victory. But it wasn’t. These things are typical of a team that’s fallen apart in the first two weeks of August.

4) Ah, August. This observation from Henry Rollins, the Black Flag punk-rock icon turned spoken-word artist: “Every year, August lashes out in volcanic fury, rising with the din of morning traffic, its great metallic wings smashing against the ground, heating the air with ever-increasing intensity.”

4a) Henry left out the part about a five-game losing streak and 4-10 August record. As an 18-year old … or maybe it was 19 … I saw Black Flag in an abandoned furniture-store warehouse in Baltimore and seem to recall fans rushing the stage in platoon waves to throw punches. At one point Rollins was slashed by a sharp object that wasn’t a knife. (A pen, maybe?) A snarling Rollins dragged one disagreeable attendee out of the pit and onto the stage and punched him like Sonny Liston working over Floyd Patterson. (Google it, kid.)  Me? I was the tall  wearing a Gordon & Smith surfboard shirt that I’d just bought for $15 dollars at the beach in Ocean City, Md. (Yeah, I was a regular Duke Kahanamoku.) I was proud to sport that item of clothing, and 5 minutes into the show, my piece of summer art was ripped straight off my back. Hey, it wasn’t easy being a tackle dummy in the mosh pit. But being a large young fella, I was skilled at delivering crack-back blocks in. Blind-side hits, baby. Ain’t no personal-foul penalty flags up in here.

Those were the days, my friends.

5) The Cardinals have a starting-pitching ERA of 5.28 since June 18 … and a 5.09 ERA since the All-Star break … and a 5.43 ERA since the start of July … and a 6.18 ERA in August. Their August starting pitching ERA ranks 29th in the majors.

6) Updated earned-run averages by each Cardinal starting pitcher for August:

* Sonny Gray, 4.74
* Andre Pallante, 5.23
* Erick Fedde, 5.63
* Kyle Gibson, 6.11
* Miles Mikolas, 9.22

7) The St. Louis bullpen had a 3.50 ERA before the All-Star break, which ranked sixth in the majors. Since the All-Star break the STL bullpen ERA is 4.61, which ranks 20th.

8) In order, here is the monthly team ERA for the Cardinals in 2024, and you’ll notice the pattern:

— March-April, 4.08
— May, 4.23
— June, 3.53
— July, 4.52
— August, 5.57

9) Combined batting average for Jordan Walker and Victor Scott in March-April: .120

10) Combined batting average for Walker and Scott in August: .170. Well, they are getting better … right?

11) In 56 combined plate appearances in August, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman collectively batted .196 with no homers, two doubles and one RBI. Nootbaar hasn’t homered since July 21. Gorman hasn’t homered since July 22.

12) Saturday morning’s Playoff Odds, via FanGraphs: the Cardinals have a 1.2 percent chance of winning the NL Central, and a 3.0% shot of clinching a wild card.

Gee, ain’t I the bluebird of happiness today. But as I’ve been saying for years: I can only work with the factual material that is presented to me. And the Cardinals are not much of a team right now.

Thank you all for reading … and please enjoy your weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

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For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.