Weekend At Bernie’s: Lars Nootbaar Has Never Been As Important To The Cardinals As He Is Right Now.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

The Cardinals were fortunate to leave Wrigley Field with a 5-4 win on Saturday. For the most part, the Redbirds took advantage of the windy city being the windy city and the Cubs being the Cubs. Balls that were hit into the tempested air befuddled the Cubs, who were distracted into miscommunication and misplays. The rally included an untimely walk and hit batter, plus a particularly wild and egregious throwing error by Chicago’s new third baseman.

A Nolan Arenado bloop was lost in the turbulence and the Cubs’ defensive tomfoolery and became a two-run single that tied the score 4-4 in the eighth. Tommy Pham tripled to open the ninth and scored on Lars Nootbaar’s sac fly for the winning run. Cards closer Ryan Helsley entered in the bottom of the ninth and recovered from Thursday’s gruesome blown save to retire the Cubs in order.

That’s about all of the play-by-play you’ll get from me, because the game was played 24 hours ago and you already know what happened.

By winning the Cardinals avoided a potential four-game sweep but remained in danger of losing three out of four. In Sunday night’s matchup the Cubs will dispatch lefty Justin Steele in the attempt to fluster the St. Louis hitters. The visitors are hoping to get the win and depart the friendly confines with a 2-2 series split. The chance to win will largely come down to this: Good Miles, or Bad Miles? The Cardinals are 11-11 this season in starts made by Miles Mikolas. In the 11 wins, his ERA was 3.17. In the 11 losses, his ERA was 7.02.

Now, let’s get to more important matters, and I’ll explain why Lars Nootbaar is so important to the Cardinals’ immediate future …

ST. LOUIS OUTFIELD: THE TEMPLE OF GLOOM. The heart-warming story of Michael Siani was interrupted Saturday by a strained right oblique. The ailing side muscle moves the center fielder to the side for a stay on the 10-day Injured List.

Seven thoughts on this concerning development:

1) It’s a damn shame. Not only will the Cardinals miss Siani’s fantastic defense in center, but the injury hits the pause button on his dramatic improvement as a hitter. In his previous 31 games (26 starts) before Saturday’s interruption, Siani batted .354 with a .391 onbase percentage and .415 slugging percentage. That stretch included a .368 average and .419 OBP in Siani’s previous 21 games. In an unanticipated bonus, Siani was coming on as a hitter.

2) Victor Scott II is back. With Tommy Edman (wrist) and Dylan Carlson (shoulder) unavailable at the start of the regular season, the Cardinals gave Scott an opportunity to show his readiness for the majors. Well, the rookie wasn’t ready, batting .085 in 21 games before the Cardinals reassigned him to Triple A Memphis. It happens. Jackson Holliday, MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect, went 2 for 34 (.059) with 18 strikeouts in an April look by the Orioles. Holiday was returned to their Triple A affiliate, put in his time, and was promoted to Baltimore in late July. He’s hitting much, much better the second time around.

Scott’s overall numbers at Memphis were disappointing, but he got molten-lava hot over his last seven games, batting .370 with a .485 OBP, .704 slug, three homers and 10 RBIs. (John Denton of MLB.com tells us that Scott’s turnaround came after he worked with roving instructor Ryan Ludwick, who suggested a leg kick.) One of the home runs was a booming grand-slam. No predictions are being made here, but if nothing else I have to think Scott is more prepared to go against big-league pitching. We’ll see. The speedy Scott should have above-average range defensively in center … but that wasn’t the case during his April audition for the Cardinals.

3) Scott’s return could reset the platoon in center, but don’t count on it. Had Siani stayed healthy, the Cardinals planned to go with Tommy Pham vs. left-handed pitchers and stay with Siani against right-handers. Could Scott just assume the Siani role and extend the platoon system with Pham?

I’m skeptical unless Scott gets a chance and proves he can be competitive against right-handed pitching. Pham whales on lefty pitching, so that part is set. Can Scott do enough against righties to earn and justify platoon-split role? Frankly, the numbers are ugly. Scott batted .083 against RHP pitching for the Cardinals in April. In 282 plate appearances vs RHP during his time in Memphis, Scott hit .202 with a weak .599 OPS.

4) Lars Nootbaar is absolutely an option in center. All eyes are on Noot. He isn’t Siani defensively in center. But we have to get over that because the Cardinals don’t have a center-field defender that compares to Siani. Among his other qualities, Siani covered vast spaces on balls hit to his left, and to his right. Statcast rated him No. 1 among major-league center fielders in side-to-side range. Siani not only took care of his own responsibilities, but he made it a lot easier for the team’s corner outfielders. The Cardinals can’t replace Siani’s range, so there is no point in crying about it.

Nootbaar is a capable center fielder, having played 708 innings there since the start of the 2022 season. Nootbaar isn’t rated as highly as Edman or Carlson in Outs Above Average over that time, but that doesn’t mean he struggles at the position. Via Statcast, Nootbaar is a plus center fielder at two outs above average from 2022-2024. And in the success-rate metric for center fielders, Statcast had Edman at 91 percent, Nootbaar at 90%, and Carlson at 88%.

Nootbaar had favorable metrics in the Ultimate Zone Rating for center fielders. He’s also ranked among the top 21 percent of major-league outfielders in range, and he’s in the top 17 percent for arm strength.

Noot’s offense is superior to Scott’s offense. (Stating the obvious!) Since the start of 2023, Nootbaar has batted .260 with a .367 OBP and .447 slug against right-handed pitching. And his wRC+ vs. righties over the last two seasons is 26 percent above league average offensively.

The Cardinals desperately need offense, and I don’t think it’s optional. Sunday morning the FanGraphs playoff odds gave the Cardinals a 23.4 percent chance to make the postseason – and time isn’t on their side. After Sunday’s ESPN broadcast at Wrigley Field, the Cardinals will have only 50 games left on their regular-season schedule.

5. Nootbaar has never been as important to the Cardinals’ fortunes as he is right now. This is a simple declaration: the St. Louis Cardinals need Lars to hit up a storm, and play solid center-field defense, and provide his best all-around form each time he plays. We’ve seen it in the past, the way a healthy, confident Nootbaar can improve the Cardinals with his all-around value. He can elevate the offense. He doesn’t have to be spectacular in center field; respectable defense will do. And Nootbaar must stay healthy and avoid another round of injuries. A series of frustrating physical breakdowns has impacted Nootbaar’s offensive momentum and prevented him from reaching his full potential. Nootbaar is an aggressive outfielder, so hold your breath. Since the start of the 2023 campaign he’s missed 103 days to injuries.

After returning from the IL on July 8, Nootbaar has batted only .229 with a .295 OBP and .357 slug. His walk rate (8.9%) over that time is low by his standards. His strikeout rate (22%) over that time is high by his standards. Per wRC+, Nootbaar’s overall offense since rejoining the Cardinals is 15 percent below league average offensively. That won’t do from here on out. Nootbaar has to be a lineup-accelerating catalyst for the Cardinals to thrive. He can’t be a malfunctioning part that needs more fixing.

6. What about Pham in center field? I’m assuming he’ll be out there when the opponent starts a lefty. But given the lateness of the schedule, manager Oli Marmol shouldn’t hesitate to use Pham in center on days when Nootbaar is in the lineup in right field or left field. Pham’s numbers vs. right-handed pitchers has been slightly below average (but respectable) since the start of 2021, and it makes sense to use him more than Scott in center field. Scott is available as a defensive replacement, and that’s a plus for Marmol in the late innings.

Pham, 36, was an above-average center fielder in his younger days, but that’s no longer the case. Pham hasn’t had an above-average rating as a center fielder since 2017 and was a minus seven in defensive runs saved when playing CF for the White Sox this season. That said, Pham is rated slightly below average (minus one) in Outs Above Average. It’s fine to wonder (worry?) about Pham’s defense in center, but he should be OK at any of the three outfield spots.

Did I mention that the Cardinals are starving for consistent offense? Through Saturday the Cardinals ranked 13th among 15 NL teams in runs per game (4.20) and were eighth in OBP, ninth in home runs, 10th in OPS, and 11th in slugging.

That’s why I’m adamant about this point; the Cardinals have to prioritize offense, even if it means sacrificing some outfield defense during Siani’s absence. Pham has been amazing since coming over from the White Sox. In his first five games since the trade, Pham went 8 for 17 (.471) with four singles, two doubles, a triple, a grand-slam home run, four runs scored and seven RBIs. If the bat is scorching, it should be in the lineup. And I don’t think the Cardinals are sacrificing any defense by using Nootbaar in center field. Siani can’t help them right now, so comparing his defensive skills to Nootbaar’s defense or Pham’s defense is irrelevant. Stupidly so.

7) The Cardinals’ outfield chaos is never-ending. Even before we start tabulating Siani’s time on the IL, St. Louis outfielders have missed 220 days to injuries this season: Edman 129, Nootbaar 53, Carlson 38. And since the start of the 2023 season, the Cardinals have endured 476 injury days missed by outfielders. And in reality that total should be around 500 days because Brendan Donovan missed the final two months of ‘23 to have elbow surgery and had started 16 games in left field before that. I don’t believe in jinxes or curses. But the Cardinals’ outfield drama has no limit. And that includes the saga of Jordan Walker, the former No. 1 prospect who was demoted to Memphis this season on April 24.

BIRD BYTES

+ The Cardinals picked up a game on the Brewers on Saturday. And the Brewers lost at Washington on Sunday afternoon, which means the Cardinals are five games behind Milwaukee going into their series finale in Chicago. With Sunday’s 4-3 loss, the Brewers are 10-14 in their last 24 games. The Brewers have a 2-6-1 in their nine series played since the beginning of July and that includes an 0-4 series record at home. Next up for the Brewers: three games in Atlanta.

+ STL’s starting-pitching ERA is 5.06 since the start of July, a figure that ranks 22nd overall and 11th in the NL.

+ The Cardinals went 3 for 21 (.143) with runners in scoring position during their first three games of the current series at Wrigley. And the Redbirds were 9 for 41 (.220) with men on base.

+ After completing their season series against the Cubs, the Cardinals will play 28 of their next 31 games against opponents with winning records. The Cardinals are 26-31 this season when facing opponents that are .500 or better.

+ JoJo Romero had his fourth consecutive strong outing in Saturday’s win, returning the Cubs in order in the eighth with one strikeout. Romero was credited with his fifth win of the season. making him 5-1. In his last four appearances Romero has pitched 4 and ⅓ scoreless innings, held opponents to a .133 batting average and struck out 33.3 percent of hitters faced. In 14 appearances from June 11 through July 23, Romero had a 5.00 ERA, allowed a .342 average and .919 OPS, and struck out only two of 43 batters.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.